July 25, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 71 days from the first round, total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals approximately USD 115.87M (Polymarket via AFOS proxy, capture from July 25, 3:51pm BRT confirmed by a double reading 8 minutes apart and re-checked at 4:30pm with no movement in the main names). Lula rose 1.00pp and closed at 62.50% (USD 7.64M), breaking through the 61.50% that had been the ceiling of the entire AFOS series, a base covering 99 days since April 14. Flávio Bolsonaro fell 0.10pp, to 22.85% (USD 7.65M), 0.85pp above the 22.00% floor the same series records on July 3. The gap between the two reached +39.65pp and passed the previous peak of +39.50pp, from July 3.

Here the window has to be stated precisely, because it changes what the sentence means. The AFOS public history API caps queries at 90 days, so any superlative checked through it measures 90 days and calls it a cycle. The check behind this synthesis was run directly against the database, which holds 99 days, and in it the July 25 figure is the highest on record. What the database does not prove is what happened before April 14, and that is why this synthesis writes the widest of the series, never the widest of the cycle (series on the AFOS panel).

On cause, this synthesis goes no further than the data supports. The rise came on the same day as the convention that formalized the opponent, with a foreign head of state on the platform, but the capture is from 3:51pm, the convention ran during the afternoon, and the gap had been widening since July 20, when it stood at +33.60pp. Reaction to an event cannot be separated from continuation of a trend with the data available (Polymarket), so the coincidence of dates is recorded and no cause is asserted.

In the chasing pack, the day brought broad gains with two exceptions (Polymarket). Renan Santos had the sharpest drop in the book, 1.40pp, going to 10.35% (USD 8.50M), still the largest individual volume among the competitive names, above those of Lula and Flávio. Ronaldo Caiado rose to 1.90% (USD 5.12M), Jair Bolsonaro to 1.25% (USD 5.24M) and Michelle Bolsonaro, who is not a declared pre-candidate, to 1.15% (USD 9.25M). Fernando Haddad rose to 0.65% (USD 6.35M) and Romeu Zema was the only one in the pack to fall, 0.20pp to 0.75% (USD 4.53M), giving back part of the July 24 jump. Tarcísio de Freitas stayed at 0.15%, with the largest individual volume in the presidential book, a legacy anomaly that measures traded history and not current conviction.

In the sub-markets, the rearrangement continued. For second place in the first round, Flávio rose 2.50pp, to 76.50% (USD 202 thousand), and Renan rose 0.60pp, to 12.00% (USD 1.07M). For third place, Renan gave up 1.00pp, to 66.00% (USD 157 thousand), with Caiado unchanged at 16.00% (USD 35 thousand). In the Senate seats market, the PL rose 2.00pp, to 70.50% (USD 258 thousand), and the MDB rose to 17.25% (USD 7 thousand), in a book totalling USD 290 thousand against the USD 115.87M of the presidential market, so a move in percentage points there does not amount to big money. The market on impeachment of a Supreme Court justice before 2027 was virtually flat at 3.50% (USD 83 thousand), and what is worth recording is precisely the absence of movement on a day when a foreign president attacked a justice of the Court by name from a Brazilian platform. In the 2026 inflation market, the modal band remains 5.00% to 5.49%, at 39.15%, followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% band at 26.25%, in a book of USD 80 thousand, a distribution centre that remains above the target ceiling.

2. What the pollsters registered

The Datafolha that was registered and not released on July 24 came out on the evening of that Friday, and what it shows is stability. In the first round, Lula appears with 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 32%, followed by Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, Romeu Zema at 3%, Renan Santos at 3% and Augusto Cury at 2%. In the head-to-head runoff, Lula has 48% against 43% for Flávio, and he also beats Caiado 47% to 40% and Zema 48% to 40%. The survey interviewed 2,004 voters between July 22 and 24, has a 2pp margin and 95% confidence, and is registered with the TSE under filing BR-01166/2026.

The detail that settles the reading is the comparison with the same institute's previous round, from June 20. Lula goes from 41% to 40% in the first round and Flávio from 31% to 32%, while in the runoff Lula goes from 47% to 48% and Flávio stays at 43%. The two readings moved one point in opposite directions, both inside the margin: the first round narrowed and the runoff widened. When two cuts of the same poll move in opposite directions and both fit inside the margin, the correct reading is sampling noise, not a trend. Rejection confirms it: Flávio is rejected by 48% and Lula by 46%, figures identical to June, without a digit of difference. On ratings, Lula is approved by 49% and disapproved by 48%, a 1pp inversion relative to the 48% and 49% of the previous round, which is a statistical tie in both measurements. The assessment of the administration, which is a different question, remains negative, with 38% rating it poor or terrible against 32% excellent or good. O Globo recorded that approval held steady even after the new round of US tariffs.

Datafolha also arbitrated the distortion this panel had been tracking. With Renan Santos measured at 3%, three of the four most recent national polls put him at that level, alongside Gerp of July 22 and Indexa of July 21, and the 9% from Real Time of July 21 is left isolated. The market answered the same day by knocking 1.40pp off his price. Let it be recorded precisely: the distortion narrowed, but what moved was the price, not the poll. The Quaest rounds released on July 25 are all state-level, including São Paulo and Goiás, and by scope rule they do not enter the national panel.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between July 26 and August 1. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each filing linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE filings via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. The window holds 28 filings with a sample ≥ 1,000; the table shows the 4 national ones plus the others with a sample ≥ 3,000, and the remaining 23, all state-level with samples between 1,000 and 2,700, were left out for readability and not for lack of a filing. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before any figure is cited.

3. What the press covered

The political fact of July 25 was the convention at which the PL formalized Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy for the presidency, in São Paulo. The event screened a video of Jair Bolsonaro generated by artificial intelligence, which opens with his own image declaring itself a simulation made with AI; the former president is serving his sentence under humanitarian house arrest with communication restrictions. O Globo summed up the picture in its headline: no running mate, no backing from the centrão, no Michelle present, as she took part only by video message. Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and mayor Ricardo Nunes were present.

Argentine president Javier Milei spoke and said he trusts Flávio to stop Lula, stating that "only Flávio can stop Lula" and tying the PT leader to socialism. In the same speech, he called justice Alexandre de Moraes "bald garbage" for not authorizing his visit to Jair Bolsonaro, a decision dated July 18. The ticket left the convention without a running mate, after senator Tereza Cristina declined the invitation.

The day's second axis is institutional and involves foreign interference. Itamaraty denied visas to two US State Department officials, assistant secretary Riley M. Barnes and deputy assistant secretary Samuel Samson, as reported by Correio Braziliense with confirmation from the ministry itself and recorded by O Globo. The request was filed on July 20 and denied on July 24, and the stated intention was to assess the integrity of the Brazilian electoral system ahead of the October 4 vote, according to reporting originally published by the Washington Post. The Brazilian government linked the request to the meeting in which Flávio Bolsonaro discussed with diplomatic representatives suspicions already denied by the TSE regarding the electronic voting machines.

At the PT convention in Campinas, which formalized Fernando Haddad for the São Paulo state government with Márcio França as running mate, Lula answered the episode by stating that anyone who tries to interfere in the Brazilian elections "will take a beating", and noted that 157 million voters decide the outcome. State races do not enter this product's national panel, but the speech made from that platform is the record that matters.

In the Master case, the Rio de Janeiro courts ordered accounts frozen on July 23 at Banco Master, Trustee DTVM, Axor Asset and two partners, capped at R$ 135 million, per the ruling by judge Wladimir Hungria reported by Agência Brasil. The origin is a R$ 150 million contribution by Rioprevidência to a fund almost entirely exposed to Ambipar shares, which cut the balance by almost R$ 15 million. This is an asset track, distinct from the criminal inquiry authorized by André Mendonça on July 23 into Daniel Vorcaro's transfers. Neither produced an identifiable price response.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The polling came back and measured stability: the two cuts of the Datafolha moved one point in opposite directions, both inside the margin, and rejection came in identical to June for both names.
2. The market went to the most lopsided point of the available series, with Lula at 62.50% and a gap of +39.65pp, passing the July 3 peak. The window is 99 days since April 14, and it is declared on purpose because the public API measures 90 days.
3. The day held the biggest campaign event of the opponent and the price responded against him. The cause is not established and this synthesis does not assert it.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 — Datafolha: 46% rejeitam Lula, e 48%, Flávio Bolsonaro
• O Globo — Datafolha: após novo tarifaço dos EUA, aprovação do governo Lula fica estável
• O Globo — Sem vice, sem apoio do centrão e sem presença de Michelle, PL oficializa candidatura de Flávio
• O Globo — Milei diz que somente Flávio pode parar Lula e atrela petista ao socialismo
• O Globo — Itamaraty nega vistos a funcionários do governo Trump que viriam ao Brasil para discutir eleições

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Correio Braziliense — Itamaraty nega vistos de dois funcionários dos EUA para discutir liberdade de expressão eleitoral
• SBT News — Itamaraty rejeita pedido de visto de missão do governo Trump
• Correio Braziliense — Lula diz que quem tentar interferir nas eleições brasileiras "vai apanhar muito"
• Metrópoles — Milei critica esquerda e diz que confia em Flávio para frear Lula
• Jornal de Brasília — Milei chama Alexandre de Moraes de "lixo careca" em evento de Flávio Bolsonaro
• CNN Brasil — PL apresenta vídeo de IA com mensagem de Jair Bolsonaro em convenção
• CNN Brasil — Datafolha: Lula é aprovado por 49% dos brasileiros; 48% desaprovam
• O Hoje — Pesquisa Datafolha: Lula tem 48% e Flávio Bolsonaro 43% no 2º turno
• Poder360 — PT lança Haddad em SP em busca de força eleitoral para Lula
• Agência Brasil — Justiça do Rio determina bloqueio de contas do Banco Master
• Gazeta do Povo — Justiça do Rio determina bloqueio de R$ 135 milhões do Banco Master por perdas no Rioprevidência

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 25, 3:51pm BRT, confirmed by double reading, re-checked at 4:30pm), TSE filings (official electoral polls).