1. Prediction market

The confirmed reading of August 14, at 14:46 BRT, shows an almost motionless presidential book. Lula stands at 63.50% (USD 8.25M), the same value as the confirmed reading of August 12, and the recorded series shows 63.50% on every day from August 9 to August 14. Six days without variation in a contract of this size is information: the market did not react to anything that happened during the week. The total cumulative volume of the presidential book is USD 122.91M.

Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 27.85% (USD 8.20M), up 0.20pp, and was the only name above 1% to rise. The distance between the top two narrowed from 35.85pp to 35.65pp, and all of the movement came from him, not from the leader. No superlative: among the points recorded since May 16, 51 had Flávio at a level equal to or above today's, with a peak of 33.20% on June 2.

Renan Santos fell 0.30pp, to 7.15% (USD 9.59M), the largest fall among names above 1%, even though he keeps the largest cumulative volume in the book in that range. Caiado rose 0.10pp, to 1.05% (USD 5.70M). Zema and Haddad remain below 0.5%, the cutoff the panel uses to separate price from noise.

For the second and third place contracts, for the Senate and for the STF impeachment contract there is no new confirmed reading on August 14, and the values in force are those of August 12, 16:41 BRT, with the impeachment contract at 3.90% (USD 83 thousand), the thinnest among those tracked.

2. What the pollsters registered

No new national poll entered the TSE database on August 14. Quaest (n=2,004, fieldwork August 10 to August 13, BR-06773/2026) is registered with publication scheduled for today and tests 13 candidates, but the results had not been published at the time of this capture. Registered is not published, and the panel does not anticipate a figure.

PoderData/Aya of August 13 remains in force (n=2,400, telephone, BR-06868/2026): Lula 41% and Flávio 35% in the first round, 46% x 45% in the runoff, with rejection tied at 48% for both.

Over the last 15 days the TSE registry holds 11 national polls against 55 state ones, plus one record whose scope cannot be inferred, which is left out by rule.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between August 15 and August 21. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters may delay or cancel release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration is linked to the TSE public search.

Date	Pollster	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Aug 17	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-03317/2026	0.7
Aug 19	Real Time Big Data	1,600	national	BR-05423/2026	0.8

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000, and none in this window reaches that size. The table lists the 2 NATIONAL polls of the window; 17 state records from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered ≠ published".

3. What the press covered

The bigger fact of the day is institutional, not electoral. On the night of August 13 the TSE suspended the processing of new party affiliations in the Filia system, after the improper inclusion of Flávio Bolsonaro in the Missão party and an attempt to change Lula's affiliation, which was never completed. ⚠️ The court itself stated that there was no hacking, but rather improper use of the tool by someone holding the party's credentials, a distinction that changes the nature of the case.

On August 13, Justice Nunes Marques restored Flávio's PL affiliation and cleared the registration, granting the requests filed. The presidential candidacy was registered hours later. The candidate registration deadline closes on August 15.

A further electoral fact entered with no counterpart in the price: the OAS announced on August 13 that it will send an observation mission to Brazil, headed by José Miguel Insulza, a former foreign minister of Chile and former Secretary General of the OAS itself. It is the fifth OAS mission in the country since 2018. International observation measures neither voting intention nor probability, and so it enters neither of the two instruments this panel crosses.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: Caiado ties with the leader in the runoff of PoderData of August 13 and is priced at 1.05% to win the election, with 4% to 5.7% in the first round depending on the house. Reaching the runoff and winning the runoff are different questions, and the panel does not add them together.

Price × institutional fact: Flávio's price rose 0.20pp in the same window in which the registry obstacle to his candidacy was removed. The panel records the order of events and does not attribute cause: a calendar coincidence is not a measured relationship.

Market × narrative: the day carried the largest institutional fact of the window and the leader did not move 0.01pp. When the price stays put on a day like this, the information is in the absence of movement, not in it.

In summary

The presidential book had a confirmed reading again and barely moved: six straight days at 63.50% for the leader, with the gap narrowing 0.20pp through movement that came exclusively from the runner-up.
The Quaest poll announced for August 14 had not been released by the time of this capture, and the national poll in force remains PoderData of August 13.
The TSE suspended new affiliations on the night of August 13 through improper use of credentials, not through intrusion, and the registration deadline closes on August 15.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 14, 14:46 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

August 14, 2026