1. Prediction market

There is no confirmed market reading on August 13. AFOS only publishes a price that two independent readings confirm, and on this date that confirmation did not come. The values below are from the last confirmed reading, of August 12 at 16:41 BRT.

In the presidential contract, Lula remains at 63.50% (USD 8.22M) and Flávio Bolsonaro at 27.65% (USD 8.13M), with Renan Santos at 7.45% (USD 9.48M) and the chasing pack below 1%: Caiado 0.95% (USD 5.66M), Zema 0.35% and Haddad 0.15%. Total cumulative volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 122.79M, read at 20:24 BRT on August 13, a cumulative quantity that does not depend on confirmation by two readings.

The sub-markets on second and third place in the first round and the Senate one also went without confirmation on this date, and so the panel does not restate a figure for them today. The impeachment of a Supreme Court justice stands at 3.90% (USD 83 thousand) from the August 12 reading, and remains the thinnest contract of the set, a caveat that travels with any move in it.

2. What the pollsters registered

PoderData/Aya published the first national poll since August 11: n=2,400, telephone, fieldwork August 9 to 12, registration BR-06868/2026. In the first round, Lula 41% against 35% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In the runoff, 46% against 45%, inside the 2pp margin.

The finding is in the house compared with itself. In the first round the distance between the two has not moved in four weeks: 6pp on July 16, 6pp on July 30 and 6pp now, with both repeating exactly the percentages of the previous round. In the runoff, over the same span, it fell from 3pp to 1pp. One round frozen and the other narrowing.

Rejection came out tied at 48% for both, and personal approval of Lula at 43% against 50% disapproval. CNN Brasil recorded that Lula also ties with Zema and with Caiado in the runoff, and beats only Renan Santos. The first-round percentages for those names did not appear in the articles captured, and the panel records the absence instead of estimating.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between August 14 and August 20. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes may delay or cancel release. Filters applied: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each registration links to the TSE public search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Aug 14	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-06773/2026	0.8
Aug 17	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-03317/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000. The table lists the 2 NATIONAL polls of the window; 15 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered ≠ published", and confirming actual release requires two primary sources before citing a figure.

3. What the press covered

The political fact of the day was a registry matter. Folha de S.Paulo reported that Flávio Bolsonaro had been affiliated with Missão, the MBL's party, without his knowledge, disrupting the formal registration of his presidential candidacy. G1 added that the PL says it could not register the candidacy and speaks of fraud. The registration deadline closes on August 15. On the same day, Lula opened his campaign in São Bernardo and Flávio in Rio, each in his own political cradle.

In the INSS case, G1 reported that Carlos Lopes, president of an association accused of diversions, was a fugitive, turned himself in to the Federal Police and was arrested. O Globo recorded that four plea deals in the case are stalled, awaiting a decision from the Federal Police and the Prosecutor General's Office. A stalled plea deal is not an approved one.

In the Master case, Estadão reported that the CNJ removed the judge in the Banco Santos case recorded suggesting to the heirs the sale to Master. It is an administrative measure concerning a magistrate, not a judgment of the case, and the information comes from a single source. On a separate front, the fund manager who denounced the bank went to the Supreme Court asking for protection.

In the judiciary, Justice Flávio Dino said he is the target of aggression and injustice after a Federal Police operation against a journalist's source. And Tarcísio de Freitas went to the Supreme Court against Lula after the Banco do Brasil loan to São Paulo was mentioned in a debate.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: Caiado and Zema tie with Lula in PoderData's runoff, and the winning prices in force for the two are 0.95% and 0.35%. The two measurements answer different questions: tying in a hypothetical runoff is not the same as winning the election, and the panel does not subtract one from the other.

Poll × poll: the same survey shows the first round frozen at 6pp for four weeks and the runoff narrowing from 3pp to 1pp. The two rounds of the same house point in different directions, and the easy reading that "the race is tightening" holds for only one of them.

Narrative × price: the registration episode is the fact of the day and there is no confirmed reading on August 13 to say whether it was priced in. An absence of measurement is recorded as an absence.

In summary

PoderData compared with itself separates the two rounds: the first frozen at 6pp for four weeks, the runoff from 3pp to 1pp.
Rejection tied at 48% removes the basis for any reading about who has more room to grow.
The chasing pack had its best day of the window in the runoff, and its winning price remains below 1%.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, last confirmed reading Aug 12 16:41 BRT, total volume read Aug 13 20:24 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

August 13, 2026