August 16, 2026

1. Prediction market

The confirmed reading of Aug 16, at 4:56 pm BRT, brings a new number for every tracked contract. In the presidential market, Lula stands at 66.50% (USD 8.40M), up 2.00pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 124.32M.

⭐ That value matches the top of the whole series: among the 174 points recorded since May 19 none is above it, and the only other day at that level was Aug 1.

⚠️ And the order of events matters: the point was recorded at 5:01 am BRT, before any campaign rally. The price moved going into the day, not in reaction to the rallies.

Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 29.45% (USD 8.34M), up 1.30pp and a third straight higher close. Even while rising, he ended up further away: the gap widened to 37.05pp. ⛔ Neither figure is a record: 4 of his 173 points were higher, and 30 of the 89 days had an equal or larger gap, with a peak of 41.80pp.

⭐ The most informative move of the day is in the placing contract, not the victory one. Renan Santos fell to 4.70% (USD 9.77M) and broke below 5% for the first time in the window. In the third-place contract he still leads, at 53.00% (USD 181 thousand), but he is falling there too: it was 65.00% on Aug 9. Ronaldo Caiado went the other way, dropping to 0.60% (USD 5.92M) on victory and rising to 37.50% on third place, against 31.00% on Aug 12. The distance between the two there narrowed from 30.50pp to 15.50pp in four days.

Zema (0.15%) and Haddad (0.05%) remain below the 0.5% cutoff. The Supreme Court impeachment contract eased to 3.40% (USD 84 thousand), the thinnest among those tracked.

2. What the polling institutes registered

No new national poll came out on Aug 16. The Genial/Quaest of Aug 14 still stands, with 38% x 31% in the first round and 43% x 40% in the runoff.

⭐ The weekend's news is not about level, it is about firmness. A crosstab of that same poll, released on Aug 15 by G1, shows 77% of Lula's voters calling the decision final, against 22% who could still change, and points to Romeu Zema as having the least convinced electorate in the field. That measures the hardness of the intention, not its size.

Candidate filing closed on Aug 15. Poder360 counted 20,438 candidacies as of 7:30 pm that Saturday, and notes that the figure remains incomplete because the Electoral Court is still processing filings. For the presidency there are 13 names.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between Aug 17 and Aug 23. Being in the table does not confirm publication: institutes can delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public registry.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. None in the window reaches the 3,000 that the 🔥 marks. The table lists the 2 NATIONAL ones; 15 state-level records from the same period were left out by scope, none by sample size. Registered ≠ published, and citing a number requires two primary sources.

3. What the press covered

The electoral campaign began on Aug 16. Lula opened at the Vila Euclides stadium in São Bernardo, and promised a Security Ministry.

⚠️ The day produced one crowd measurement and only one. According to Estadão, the USP/Cebrap monitor estimated 8,900 people in Copacabana, and Lula's rally had no measurement released. ⛔ With a number on one side and none on the other, comparing the rallies is not possible.

Renan Santos opened at the University of São Paulo law school, wearing a bulletproof vest, and Zema opened with a mass in Montes Claros, criticising Supreme Court justices. The court became a starting theme: G1 reported that Flávio Bolsonaro's Senate strategy is built around confronting the Supreme Court, and Lula's around governability.

Three names from the presidential book opened campaigns for other offices: Tarcísio de Freitas for re-election in São Paulo, without Flávio Bolsonaro present; Haddad for the same state's governorship; and Michelle Bolsonaro for the Senate seat of the Federal District. That turns inference into a dated act. In the Master case, Estadão reported that 85% of pension schemes may now invest only in government bonds.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The leader matched the top of the series at 66.50%, with no point above it in 174 records. Matching is not beating.
2. The third-place contract said more than the victory one: Caiado rose 6.50pp on placing and fell 0.45pp in the race, and his distance to the chasing pack’s leader in that book narrowed from 30.50pp to 15.50pp.
3. With no new poll, the finding came from firmness: 77% of the leader’s voters call the decision final, and the least convinced electorate in the field is Zema’s.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Valor — Em sua última disputa, Lula volta às origens em SBC e acena a trabalhadores, jovens e mulheres
• G1 — Quaest: voto em Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro é o mais consolidado; Zema tem eleitorado menos convicto
• G1 — Renan Santos inicia campanha à Presidência em São Paulo e diz que vai enfrentar 'inimigos da nação'
• O Globo — Tarcísio abre campanha à reeleição ao governo de SP em Osasco, com acenos às mulheres
• Folha de S.Paulo — Michelle Bolsonaro dá largada à candidatura ao Senado: 'Missão que meu marido me confiou'
• Folha de S.Paulo — Zema inicia campanha com promessa de 'superpresídio' e críticas a ministros do STF
• Estadão — Após perdas com Banco Master, 85% das previdências só podem investir em títulos públicos

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• G1 — Campanha eleitoral começa neste domingo; entenda o que muda e o que os candidatos podem fazer agora
• Estadão — Ato de Flávio reúne 8,9 mil pessoas no Rio, estima USP/Cebrap; comício de Lula não teve medição
• Poder360 — Eleições de 2026 têm 20.438 candidatos no fim do registro
• Exame — Quem são os 13 candidatos que vão disputar a Presidência nas eleições de 2026
• G1 — No 1º dia de campanha, Lula promete Ministério da Segurança; Flávio defende Bolsonaro e fala em negociar com os EUA
• G1 — Eleições ao Senado: Lula foca em governabilidade e Flávio em enfrentamento ao STF; veja candidatos e estratégias
• G1 — Quaest, 1º turno: Lula, 38%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 31%; Renan Santos, 4%; Caiado, 4%; Augusto Cury, 2%; e Zema, 2%

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 16, 4:56 pm BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).