1. Prediction market

The presidential contract closed the confirmed 6:48 PM BRT reading with the leader at 64.50% (USD 8.52M), a 2.00pp drop that gave back what he had gained the day before, and the runner-up at 31.45% (USD 8.46M), a 2.00pp rise on his fourth straight day. The distance shrank from 37.05pp to 33.05pp, 4.00pp in about 26 hours, and the accumulated total volume in the presidential book comes to USD 126.85M.

Neither is a record: the leader's high is 66.50%, from Aug 1, and the runner-up's 33.20%, from Jun 2.

In the pack, Renan Santos fell to 4.05% (USD 9.95M) and Caiado to 0.25% (USD 6.07M), both below the floor of the 90-day series. Zema rose 0.10pp and Pablo Marçal enters the comparison for the first time, at 0.90% (USD 1.21M).

In the third place contract, Caiado rose to 38.50% and Renan gave ground to 52.50%. The Supreme Court impeachment market stayed flat at 3.40% (USD 84 thousand) and the PL marks 77.00% in the Senate, against 16.85% for the MDB.

After the capture the market moved again, and the guard blocked on the two following runs. That is why the numbers above are the 6:48 PM ones, and not the most recent.

2. What the pollsters recorded

The first national poll since Aug 14 came out. BTG/Nexus surveyed 2,003 voters by telephone between Aug 14 and 16, with a 2-point margin, TSE registration BR-03317/2026, checked on the pollster's own site: 41% x 36% in the first round, with Caiado at 5%, Renan Santos at 4% and Zema at 4%, and 47% x 44% in the runoff.

Against the house's own previous round, the distance stayed at the same 5 points and the runoff repeated 47 to 44. On the government assessment, 42% rate it bad or terrible against 34% excellent or good, according to Diário do Grande ABC.

The panel does not publish the approval figure from this round: outlets diverged between 47 x 48 and 46 x 49, and the pollster did not carry the data.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Publication scheduled between Aug 18 and Aug 24. Registered is not published: pollsters delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000.

Date	Pollster	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Aug 19	Real Time Big Data	1,600	national	BR-05423/2026	0.3
Aug 21	Veritá	3,840	national	BR-04006/2026	0.3
Aug 21	Datafolha	2,058	national	BR-04496/2026	0.5

Source: TSE via the AFOS API. Large samples in bold. The table carries the 3 NATIONAL polls in the window and 20 records were left out by scope or sample. Status: registered is not published.

3. What the press covered

The Federal Police seized in Asunción an aircraft worth R$ 120 million linked to former banker Daniel Vorcaro, within Operação Compliance Zero, and the aircraft is already impounded in Brasília, according to Jornal de Brasília and CNN Brasil. Seizing an asset is a precautionary measure, not a ruling on the merits.

Pablo Marçal entered the electoral news, and the panel records the declared status: the PRTB filed his registration on Aug 15, the final deadline; on Aug 5 the São Paulo regional electoral court denied his defence's appeal and he remains ineligible until 2032, with an appeal available to the higher electoral court; and the law allows a candidacy to stand sub judice, with campaign acts until a definitive ruling, according to BBC News Brasil and Poder360.

There was friction on the right: the runner-up accused Caiado of helping the leader after Gilberto Kassab, the running mate on Caiado's ticket, said he has zero chance, and Kassab replied that the runner-up's campaign is worried about Caiado, according to Estadão. And the United States is weighing new sanctions on Justice Alexandre de Moraes, according to the Financial Times as republished by Valor Econômico.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: the poll shortened nothing and the price shortened 4.00pp. The leader went from 40% to 41% and the runner-up from 35% to 36%, so the measured distance stayed at the same 5 points. The panel does not claim the price reacted to the poll, and the reason is arithmetic: a measurement that does not shorten cannot explain a shortening.

Poll × market, on who is third: BTG/Nexus puts Caiado at 5% and Renan Santos at 4%. The market does the opposite, with Renan at 4.05% against Caiado's 0.25%, and 52.50% against 38.50% in the third place contract. The disagreement has been narrowing: that book was 15.50pp apart on Aug 16 and is 14.00pp apart now.

Price × price: Caiado fell in the contract on winning and rose in the one on finishing third, on the same day. Adding the two together would produce a number with no meaning.

Em síntese

The poll measured stability and the price measured shortening, and the difference between the two readings is 4.00pp. BTG/Nexus kept the distance at 5 points and repeated 47 to 44 in the runoff; on the same day the price went from 37.05pp to 33.05pp. Both 1-point moves in the poll fit inside the house's own 2-point margin, so they are not even distinguishable from stability.
The two universes now disagree about who the third name is, and the disagreement is shrinking. The ballot box puts Caiado at 5% against Renan Santos's 4%. The market does the opposite, with 4.05% against 0.25% on winning and 52.50% against 38.50% on placing, and that last distance fell from 15.50pp to 14.00pp in a single day.
The guard blocked twice and the panel preferred the old number to the new one. Between 9:30 PM and 10:18 PM the runner-up was read between 31.65% and 32.95% without two samples agreeing. A price that does not clear two runs becomes recorded instability, not a published quote.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 17 6:48 PM BRT), TSE registration (official electoral polls).

August 17, 2026