August 19, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the presidential contract, Lula closed the confirmed reading of August 19, 2:58 PM BRT, at 63.50% (USD 8.69M), unchanged for a second day running, and Flávio Bolsonaro at 32.55% (USD 8.63M), up 0.50pp and a sixth consecutive day of gains. The distance between them narrowed 0.50pp to 30.95pp, a third day running of convergence: it was 37.05pp on August 16, 33.05pp on the 17th and 31.45pp on the 18th, that is 6.10pp in three days. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 129.21M.

In two days Lula lost no price at all: the entire convergence came from the runner-up. No superlative: 32.55% is not a record, because of the 88 days in the series since May 22 only 2 posted a value equal to or above it, and the high is still 33.20%, from June 2.

Ronaldo Caiado gave back what he had gained the previous day, from 0.80% to 0.55% (USD 6.35M), and in the third place contract he gave ground from 37.00% to 36.00%. Renan Santos fell to 4.05% (USD 10.14M) in the presidential book, but stayed at 57.00% in that same placement contract: the distance between them there widened from 20.00pp to 21.00pp, and the one who widened it was Caiado giving ground.

Pablo Marçal marks 0.75% (USD 1.72M), with volume rising from USD 1.66M in one day, and Romeu Zema stays at 0.15%. In the second place contract there is no new reading to publish on August 19.

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stayed flat at 3.40% (USD 84 thousand) and the PL marks 78.50% in the Senate, against 16.50% for the MDB.

2. What the pollsters recorded

No new national poll was published. The latest is still BTG/Nexus of August 17 (n=2,003, registration BR-03317/2026), which measured the distance between the top two unchanged at 5 points, with Lula at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%.

Both polls released on August 19 are state polls and do not enter the national panel, which only accepts national scope. Real Time Big Data measured the Federal District, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 44% against Lula's 39% in the runoff and government approval at 54% against 45% in that electorate, according to CNN Brasil and CartaCapital. Datafolha measured São Paulo, according to VEJA.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Publication scheduled between August 20 and 26. Registered is not published. Filters: national scope and sample ≥ 1,000.

Source: public electoral court registry via the AFOS API. Samples ≥ 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 2 NATIONAL polls in the window; 62 state records from the same period were left out by scope. Both are already in the field, closing on August 20, and Datafolha is the first to include Pablo Marçal, who today has a price and no ballot-box measurement, according to TVT News.

3. What the press covered

The top two candidates decided to limit their presence in first round debates, and the stated reasons differ. Flávio Bolsonaro should only attend debates where Lula is also present, to avoid becoming the preferred target of rivals from the right itself, according to Poder360 and Jornal de Brasília. Lula, in turn, should take part only in the TV Globo debate, set for October 1, the last one before the vote, according to JOTA.

InfoMoney published profiles of the 13 presidential candidates registered with the electoral court. The panel does not attribute the price move to any of these facts.

4. Divergences of the day

Em síntese

1. The distance between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed for the third day running, and the one who narrowed it was not the one falling. It was 37.05pp on August 16, 33.05pp on the 17th, 31.45pp on the 18th and 30.95pp on the 19th, a total of 6.10pp. Lula lost no price at all in two days, and the entire convergence came from his opponent rising, on a sixth day of gains.
2. Ronaldo Caiado gave back in one day what he had gained the day before. He went from 0.80% to 0.55% in the contract on winning and gave ground from 37.00% to 36.00% in the third place one. His distance to Renan Santos in that book widened to 21.00pp without the other moving.
3. The ballot box speaks again on Friday, and with a name never measured before. The national Datafolha of August 21 is the first to measure Pablo Marçal, who today has a price of 0.75% in the market and no voting-intention measurement in any national poll.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Poder360 — Flávio says he will only attend debates where Lula is present
• JOTA — Why Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro avoid debates

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Jornal de Brasília — Flávio Bolsonaro decides to attend first round debates only with Lula
• CNN Brasil — Real Time/DF: Flávio has 44% of voting intentions in the runoff; Lula, 39%
• CartaCapital — The Lula versus Flávio Bolsonaro race in the Federal District
• CNN Brasil — Real Time/DF: Lula is approved by 54% of voters; 45% disapprove
• VEJA — Datafolha shows the Lula versus Flávio race in the second largest electorate
• InfoMoney — 2026 elections: who are the 13 presidential candidates
• TVT News — New Datafolha presidential poll to be released on the 21st

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 19 2:58 PM BRT), electoral court registry (official electoral polls).