1. Prediction market

In the confirmed reading of August 20, 11:19 PM BRT, approved by two independent readings, the presidential market held the previous day's shape. Lula repeated 63.50% (USD 8.74M) for a third day running and Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.30pp to 32.85% (USD 8.68M). The distance went to 30.65pp, against 37.05pp on August 16. Of the 6.40pp narrowed in four days, 3.00pp came off the leader, all of it in the first two, and 3.40pp came from the runner-up, who rose on all four. Total volume in the presidential book is USD 129.91M.

The value is not a record: in the series of 174 readings since May 23, only two beat it, both at 33.20%, on June 2 and August 18. Renan Santos had the largest move among names above 1%: +0.40pp, to 4.45% (USD 10.28M). Ronaldo Caiado gave ground to 0.35% (USD 6.37M) and Pablo Marçal to 0.25% (USD 2.04M), both below the 0.5% floor of the double reading: a book reading, not a confirmed price.

In the placement contracts, Flávio Bolsonaro has 87.50% (USD 308 thousand) for second place, and Renan Santos leads the third place contract one with 55.50% (USD 186 thousand) against 34.50% for Caiado. The impeachment of a supreme court justice gave up 0.05pp to 3.35% (USD 84 thousand), a thin book. In the Senate, the PL is at 78.50% (USD 259 thousand).

2. What the pollsters recorded

No new national poll since August 17. The latest is still BTG/Nexus from that day (n=2,003, field from August 14 to 16, registration BR-03317/2026): Lula 41% against 36% for Flávio Bolsonaro, 5 points.

The polls released on August 20 are state level and stay out of the panel. AtlasIntel in Pará measures Lula at 48.9% against 37.4% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, according to Metrópoles. The Inteligov/EXAME aggregator gave Lula 39.71% and Flávio 33.04%, according to Exame, and it does not enter: an aggregator is not field work.

Folha de S.Paulo announced on August 20 that the new Datafolha comes out on August 21, the first one run after candidacies were registered.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the electoral court for August 21 to 27, national scope and sample from 1,000 up. Registered is not published.

Date	Pollster	Sample	Scope	Registration	Conf.
Aug 21	Veritá	3,840	national	BR040062026	0.7
Aug 21	Datafolha	2,058	national	BR044962026	0.9

Source: public electoral court registry via the AFOS API. Samples from 3,000 up in bold. Of the 17 in the window, 15 were left out: 13 state level and 2 of unidentifiable scope. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

André Mendonça was the most present name of the day. At the electoral court, he ordered the removal on August 20 of a video made with artificial intelligence linking Flávio Bolsonaro to the former owner of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, and recorded that satire does not lift the ban on deepfakes. The decision was reported by O Globo and G1. On the same day, as a supreme court justice, he received a petition from the prosecutor general's office saying that the businessman known as Careca do INSS did not close deals with the Lula government and pointing to an imprecision by the federal police, according to Estadão. The panel records the coincidence, not the intent: these are distinct jurisdictions.

The case also turned into litigation: Fábio Luís Lula da Silva sued Flávio Bolsonaro over another video made with artificial intelligence, about the INSS diversions, according to O Globo.

The squeeze on Pablo Marçal tightened, and his candidacy registration is not the new fact: it was filed on August 15. On August 19 the electoral prosecutor's office asked the electoral court to reject the candidacy and to keep him out of the debates, and on August 20 the court granted an injunction barring the use of official resources in his campaign. In the same period, Flávio Bolsonaro praised Marçal, said he looks at the supreme court with disgust and spoke of being a transition president.

In the Banco Master case, investigators accept reopening Daniel Vorcaro's plea deal, but demand a full statement and disclosure of assets abroad, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Renan Santos said Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are "completely burned" by corruption, according to Valor Econômico.

4. Divergences of the day

Market x poll: the market pays 55.50% on Renan Santos and 34.50% on Ronaldo Caiado in the third place contract, while the latest national poll, BTG/Nexus of August 17, gives 5% to Caiado and 4% to Renan. Price and ballot box disagree on who is third, and no new measurement has settled it since August 17.

Price x news: the day produced four court decisions or formal filings involving the top two candidates and the fifth, and the contract on the impeachment of a supreme court justice moved 0.05pp. The panel records that the price did not react, without claiming it should have.

Move without measurement: the distance between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed 6.40pp in four days, and the latest national poll measured that same distance as unchanged at 5 points. A measurement that does not narrow cannot explain a narrowing, and the panel does not assign cause to what was not measured.

Em síntese

The distance narrowed for a fourth day running, and the source of the move changed midway. Of the 6.40pp, 3.00pp came off Lula, all of it between August 16 and 18, and 3.40pp came from Flávio Bolsonaro, who rose on all four days. The convergence is losing force: 4.00pp, 1.60pp, 0.50pp and now 0.30pp.
One justice decided on both sides of the race on August 20, in two courts. At the electoral court, André Mendonça ordered the removal of an AI video that hits Flávio Bolsonaro; at the supreme court, he received the prosecutor general's petition in a case that reaches Lula. The panel records the coincidence, not the intent.
The squeeze on Pablo Marçal tightened through the courts, not the ballot box. His registration is from August 15; what is new is the prosecutor's request for rejection on the 19th and the court injunction on the 20th. His price fell to 0.25%, below the 0.5% floor, and the first poll to measure him lands on August 21.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Aug 20 11:19 PM BRT), public electoral court registry, consulted by registration number (official electoral polls).

August 20, 2026