September 2, 2026

1. Prediction market

Prices are from the confirmed reading of September 2, 8:26 PM BRT, and total volume comes to USD 141.85M in the presidential book. Lula is at 55.50% (USD 9.59M) and has not moved off it for the fifth day running. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 1.70pp, to 40.65% (USD 9.48M), the only upward move above the 0.5% floor. The distance between the two fell from 16.55pp to 14.85pp, and the compression came from one side alone.

The lower-placed names gave ground: Renan Santos fell 0.35pp, to 2.20% (USD 12.36M), and Augusto Cury fell 0.75pp, to 1.60% (USD 3.59M). Ronaldo Caiado, at 0.25% (USD 7.05M), remains below the floor in the winner contract and without a new price in it.

In the placement contracts the picture flips. In second place in the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 0.50pp and stands at 85.50% (USD 0.52M). In third place, Cury rose 5.75pp, to 52.40% (USD 0.10M), while Renan Santos fell to 28.00% and Caiado fell 4.50pp, to 8.50%.

The contract on a Supreme Court justice leaving through impeachment before 2027 fell from 10.85% to 6.35% (USD 87 thousand), down 4.50pp. The size of the book is the information: it is the smallest on the panel, and roughly USD 1.3 thousand of new trading accompanies the fall. In the Senate, this round publishes no new price. In 2026 annual inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band marks 41.95%.

2. What the pollsters recorded

Genial/Quaest (BR-07065/2026, fieldwork August 30 to September 1, n=2,004, margin of 2pp, registered with the TSE) is the only national poll of September 2, and it was already in the TSE registry ingested that morning.

The house published two first-round scenarios, and the direction of the Marçal effect inverts that of September 1. With Pablo Marçal on the list, Lula has 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro 30% and Cury 10%. Without Marçal, Flávio has 29%, with Renan Santos at 3%, Caiado at 1% and Romeu Zema at 1%. Both close at exactly 100 once blanks, spoiled ballots and undecided voters are counted. In the unprompted scenario, Lula has 28% and 42% could not answer.

The jump of the day is Augusto Cury's, measured within the house itself: from 2% to 10% since August 14, over the same span in which Caiado went from 4% to 1%. In the runoff, Lula has 42% and Flávio 41%, a distance of 1 point, against 5pp on August 5 and 3pp on August 14 in the same house. It is the first in the base to test a runoff with Cury, who loses 40% to 34%. On rejection, Flávio has 55%, Lula 53% and Cury 25%, the lowest on the table. On government evaluation, 48% disapprove and 45% approve, against 46% and 48% on August 14.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 3 and Sep 9. Registration is not confirmed publication: pollsters can delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample >= 1,000. Each protocol linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples >= 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls in the window; 56 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered is not published", and confirming publication requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

In the Banco Master case, what changed on September 2 was the confirmation, not the fact. The office of Justice André Mendonça confirmed that he met Daniel Vorcaro once, on March 14, 2025, at the Iter Institute in São Paulo. He took over the Banco Master case in February 2026, almost a year later. Vorcaro also gave a statement to an assistant judge in his office on August 27, 2026, with the public prosecutor and without the Federal Police, prompted by an account of serious intimidation. Vorcaro has been in custody since November 17, 2025.

The institutional novelty is the court's president stepping in. Edson Fachin said Supreme Court justices must have limits and that he will announce the appropriate measures, without naming anyone, and began talks with the other justices. The court held its first session after the report with Moraes and Mendonça side by side, and the Master case was not put on the agenda. Mendonça's report on Moraes is expected on September 7 or 8.

Renan Santos filed an impeachment request against Moraes and against Dias Toffoli. The TSE formed a majority to approve the candidacy registrations of Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro and Romeu Zema, with the ruling still under way. Ronaldo Caiado responded to the 1% in the poll saying voters are still getting to know the candidates.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The disagreement between the two pollsters has an address. They coincide where they measure Renan Santos and diverge where they measure Caiado and Zema, the two names Quaest puts at 1%. A new poll did not confirm the previous one, and the panel publishes both.
2. Rising on the ballot and falling on price is not a contradiction when the contracts ask different questions. Augusto Cury quintupled within the house itself and, on the same day, fell in the winner contract and rose in the third-place one.
3. The date of the act is the information, and it is older than the headline. The meeting is from March 14, 2025, the statement taken without the Federal Police is from August 27, 2026, and what belongs to September 2 is the public confirmation.

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Fontes consultadas

articles with a direct link to the story (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Fachin diz que ministros do STF devem ter limites e que anunciará medidas cabíveis
• Folha de S.Paulo — Com Moraes e Mendonça lado a lado, STF ignora caso Master em 1ª sessão após novas mensagens de Vorcaro
• O Globo — Mendonça diz que se encontrou com Vorcaro uma vez para tratar de ação sobre precatórios antes de assumir o caso Master
• O Globo — Fachin diz que vai anunciar medidas cabíveis e necessárias após revelação de mensagens de Vorcaro a Moraes
• O Globo — Caiado reage a 1% na Quaest e diz que eleitor ainda está conhecendo candidatos
• G1 — Renan Santos protocola pedido de impeachment contra Moraes e Toffoli

secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — the click resolves to the story):

• Poder360 — Mendonça diz que esteve com Vorcaro uma vez e que se limitou a ouvi-lo
• Poder360 — Vorcaro deu depoimento a gabinete de Mendonça sem presença da PF
• Poder360 — Relatório Vorcaro-Moraes sai 2ª ou 3ª, e Fachin fará sessão semana que vem
• Poder360 — Flávio chama encontro de Mendonça com Vorcaro de cortina de fumaça
• Metrópoles — Vorcaro pediu depoimento para relatar graves intimidações, diz Mendonça
• Folha de S.Paulo — Quaest: Lula tem 37%, Flávio Bolsonaro, 30%, e Cury chega a 10% no primeiro turno
• G1 — Quaest, 1º turno: Lula, 37%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 29%; Cury, 10%; Renan, 3%; Caiado, 1%; Zema, 1%
• Valor Econômico — Augusto Cury salta de 2% para 10% na pesquisa Quaest
• Exame — Quaest: Lula tem 42% e Flávio Bolsonaro, 41%, no 2º turno
• Valor Econômico — Pesquisa Quaest: Flávio tem rejeição de 55%, Lula, de 53% e Cury, de 25%
• G1 — Quaest: 48% desaprovam e 45% aprovam governo Lula
• Fonte 83 — TSE forma maioria para aprovar registros de Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro e Zema

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 2, 8:26 PM BRT), registro TSE (official electoral polls).