September 1, 2026

1. Prediction market

Prices are from the confirmed reading of September 1, 8:34 PM BRT, and total accumulated volume comes to USD 141.39M in the presidential book. Lula stands at 55.50% (USD 9.56M) and has not left that number for the fourth day running. Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 0.10pp, to 38.95% (USD 9.43M), after ceding 2.05pp on August 31. The distance between the two widened to 16.55pp, against 16.45pp on August 31.

The names below moved. Renan Santos rose 0.70pp, to 2.55% (USD 12.30M), the largest move in the presidential contract this round, on the same day the ruling that was blocking his campaign was reversed. Augusto Cury rose 0.50pp, to 2.35% (USD 3.50M), against the last published price, from August 30. Ronaldo Caiado, at 0.25% (USD 7.03M), remains below the 0.5% floor and has no new price this round.

In the placement contracts, second place in the first round took Flávio Bolsonaro to 86.00% (USD 0.51M), up 0.50pp. In third place, Augusto Cury took the lead with 46.65% (USD 0.10M), against 30.00% for Renan Santos.

The panel's largest move is not a candidate's. The contract on a Supreme Court justice leaving through impeachment before 2027 went from 3.60% to 10.85% (USD 86 thousand), up 7.25pp. The size of the book changes the reading: it is the panel's smallest, and accumulated volume went from USD 84 thousand to USD 86 thousand, that is, some USD 2 thousand of new business accompanies the swing. Within the day the price passed through 3.50% and 19.10%. In the Senate, the PL stands at 78.50% (USD 0.26M). In 2026 annual inflation, the highest band marks 36.60%.

2. What the pollsters registered

Real Time Big Data (BR-03490/2026, field August 27 to 31, n=2,000, margin of 2pp, registered with the TSE) is the panel's first national poll whose field reaches August 31, and therefore the first to cover the full week after the campaign broadcast slot began on August 28.

The pollster published two first-round scenarios and they give different numbers. With Pablo Marçal on the list, Lula has 38%, Flávio Bolsonaro 29% and Augusto Cury 10%. Without Marçal, Lula has 38%, Flávio 30% and Cury 11%. The day's headlines circulated the second scenario without saying which one it was, and the panel carries both, labelled. It is the second pollster in a row to put Cury in double digits, after BTG/Nexus on August 31.

In the runoff, Lula and Flávio tie at 44% to 44%. And in the scenario against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula comes out behind, 45% to 43%. Across the 41 simulations in the panel's base, Lula has trailed in four, all against Flávio Bolsonaro: it is the first time another name shows in front. In rejection, Lula and Flávio tie at 50%, Caiado has 39% and Cury 24%, the lowest among the seven names tested.

Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 2 and Sep 8. Registration is not confirmed publication: pollsters can delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample >= 1,000. Each protocol linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples >= 3,000 in bold. The table lists the 5 NATIONAL polls in the window; 58 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered is not published", and confirming publication requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

The fact of September 1 is the lifting of secrecy, not a new investigation. The messages between banker Daniel Vorcaro and Justice Alexandre de Moraes are from November 16, 2025; Vorcaro has been in custody since November 17, 2025, and Banco Master was liquidated on November 18. The Federal Police report was delivered on August 27, and on September 1 Justice André Mendonça lifted the case's secrecy, according to Poder360. The content surfaced on the night of August 31, in a Metrópoles column. The document indicates that Moraes edited a contract worth BRL 131 million between his wife's law firm and the businessman, plus a second contract worth BRL 50 million, according to the same report.

The reaction came from both sides. The prosecutor general asked for the report to be annulled, and presidential candidates demanded the justice's departure, among them Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. The Senate president signalled to allies that he will not schedule impeachment, and a senator predicted a flood of requests. The joint committee on the pension agency requested an investigation into the same contract, which for the first time ties together the two investigations the panel had been following in parallel.

In the electoral contest, there were rulings on both sides. Dias Toffoli backed down and released Renan Santos's digital campaign, the fund transfers and the right to debate, reversing the August 30 ruling. And André Mendonça suspended Lula's advertising that used the "Rap do Silva" for not presenting Alckmin as running mate, a ruling also reported by CartaCapital.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The fact of the day is the lifting of secrecy, not a new investigation. Report from August 27, messages from November 2025.
2. The panel's largest move came from the panel's smallest book. Up 7.25pp with some USD 2 thousand of new business.
3. A name with 4% in the first round beats the leader in a simulated runoff, unprecedented in the base outside the runner-up.

---

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Toffoli recua e libera campanha eleitoral de Renan Santos nas redes
• Estadão — André Mendonça suspende propaganda de Lula com Rap do Silva por não apresentar Alckmin como vice
• O Globo — Alcolumbre sinaliza a aliados que não cederá a novos apelos para pautar impeachment de Moraes
• Valor — Romeu Zema defende impeachment e prisão de Alexandre de Moraes

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

• Poder360 — Vorcaro pediu a Moraes encontro com Galípolo para resolver tudo
• Metrópoles — Caiado pede afastamento de ministro do STF
• CartaCapital — Mendonça proíbe Lula de voltar a exibir Rap do Silva sem nome de Alckmin
• Gazeta do Povo — Pesquisa Real Time Big Data para presidente, setembro de 2026
• Poder360 — Pesquisa Real Time Big Data confirma crescimento de Augusto Cury
• CNN Brasil — Real Time Big Data: Lula e Flávio têm 50% de rejeição entre eleitores
• R7 — Lula lidera 1º turno por 8 pontos, mas empata com Flávio Bolsonaro no 2º
• Poder360 — Senado vai ter enxurrada de pedidos de impeachment de Moraes, diz Damares
• Times Brasil — CPMI do INSS pediu investigação sobre contrato da mulher de Moraes com Banco Master

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 1, 8:34 PM BRT), registro TSE (official electoral polls).