September 4, 2026

1. Prediction market

Total accumulated volume in the presidential book is USD 143.62M, in a confirmed reading of 4 September, 19:53 BRT. Lula rose 1.00pp to 55.50% (USD 9.72M) and Flávio Bolsonaro gave up 2.70pp to 40.15% (USD 9.68M), the largest move of any name in the book in this reading.

The gap between the two went from 11.65pp to 15.35pp, an opening of 3.70pp that undoes four consecutive readings of narrowing since 1 September. In the same book, Augusto Cury rose 0.70pp to 1.95% (USD 4.07M), with around USD 380 thousand of new volume in one day, and Renan Santos rose 0.10pp to 1.85% (USD 12.64M), still the largest accumulated volume among the four names above 1%.

In the side markets the picture is different, and it contradicts the main one. In the first-round runner-up contract, Flávio rose 4.00pp to 87.50% (USD 586 thousand), over the same interval in which he was giving ground in the winner contract, and Lula gave up 2.90pp to 7.60% (USD 469 thousand). In the third-place contract, Cury gave up 5.95pp to 53.55% (USD 123 thousand), breaking three straight days of gains, Renan rose 1.50pp to 23.50% (USD 277 thousand) and Ronaldo Caiado gave up 1.00pp to 9.00% (USD 114 thousand).

The Supreme Court justice impeachment contract stands at 15.85% (USD 87 thousand), against 7.40% in the reading of 3 September at 17:28. It is the only contract on the panel going out without the double reading applied to the others, and the reason is in the recorded series itself: across the recorded readings of 4 September it ranged from 10.60% to 19.30%, an amplitude of 8.70pp, with USD 28 of new money over the whole day. The figure is one reading inside that range, not its centre. In the Senate, the Liberal Party remains at 82.50% (USD 261 thousand) and the MDB at 12.25% (USD 8.9 thousand).

2. What the polling institutes registered

No national poll was released on 4 September, and that is not a collection gap. The TSE register shows seven national polls in the field right now, and the first scheduled release is 6 September. The most recent reading is still the Datafolha poll of 3 September, registration BR-03669/2026, field from 1 to 3 September, n=2,002, margin of 2 points, which gave Lula 46% and Flávio 44% in the second round. The house published on 4 September the breakdown by region, gender and age, with no new voting-intention figure.

One of the seven in the field is Meio/Ideia, testing whether the Supreme Court crisis changes votes, with field from 4 to 7 September. VEJA recorded the same framing when listing the first polls after the scandal. None of them has published figures, and the panel records the existence of the field work, not a result.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 5 and 11 September. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes may delay or cancel release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of at least 1,000. Each registration linked to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE register via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 7 NATIONAL polls in the window; 29 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered is not published", and confirming actual release requires two primary sources before citing any figure.

3. What the press covered

The day's act comes from the Supreme Court, and the scope is narrow. Edson Fachin removed from the fake-news inquiry the request by Alexandre de Moraes to investigate André Mendonça and turned it into a separate petition under his own docket, with five working days for the Prosecutor General's Office and another five for Mendonça afterwards. The five-day deadline given to Moraes, Mendonça, Paulo Gonet and Andrei Rodrigues is from 3 September, not 4, as the chronology of the case shows.

Hours later, Fachin argued for ending the fake-news inquiry, open for seven years, without closing it. The Superior Council of the Federal Prosecution Service opened proceedings to examine the references to Gonet in the messages attributed to Daniel Vorcaro, in the council the Prosecutor General himself chairs. Flávio Dino acknowledged the crisis and argued for continuing to judge.

On the campaign trail, Flávio Bolsonaro called Fachin's decision "light at the end of the tunnel" and said in São Paulo that Davi Alcolumbre and Moraes are seeking self-protection. Lula said he told Donald Trump that Brazil does not accept interference in its elections, and Ronaldo Caiado argued, at a question-and-answer session, for investigating the alleged Vorcaro bribe.

In a rejected plea-bargain proposal, from 3 September, Vorcaro claimed that the donation to Jair Bolsonaro and to Tarcisio de Freitas was a bribe arranged by Gilberto Kassab. Tarcísio called the claim "an inference bordering on the ridiculous". The electoral effect of the case remains disputed, with no measurement published on 4 September.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The day without a poll was the day the price moved most. The gap is back to 15.35pp and undid four consecutive readings of narrowing, with no new voting-intention information entering the market.
2. Seven national polls are in the field according to the TSE register and none publishes before 6 September. The largest sample is PALVER, with 5,000 interviews, scheduled for 9 September.
3. What changed at the Supreme Court is narrower than the headline suggests: Fachin split off the request by Moraes against Mendonça and argued for ending the fake-news inquiry, without closing it.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Fachin removes request to investigate Mendonça from the fake-news inquiry
• Gazeta do Povo · Fachin gives PGR 5 days to respond to Moraes accusations against Mendonça
• Poder360 · Understand the chronology of the Supreme Court crisis between Moraes and Mendonça
• Estadão · Fachin says there will be no omission on the Supreme Court crisis and argues for ending the fake-news inquiry
• O Globo · Superior Council of the Federal Prosecution Service opens proceedings on references to Gonet
• Gazeta do Povo · Dino acknowledges Supreme Court crisis and argues for continuing to judge
• Valor Econômico · Flávio says Fachin's decision is light at the end of the tunnel
• Folha de S.Paulo · Caiado says he supports investigating the alleged Vorcaro bribe
• Folha de S.Paulo · In a rejected plea bargain, Vorcaro says the donation to Bolsonaro and Tarcísio was a bribe arranged by Kassab
• O Globo · It is an inference bordering on the ridiculous, says Tarcísio about the Vorcaro plea bargain

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Gazeta do Povo · The figures from the new Datafolha presidential poll
• G1 · Datafolha, first round: voting intention by region, gender, age and political identification
• Valor Econômico · New Meio/Ideia presidential poll tests whether the Supreme Court crisis changes votes
• VEJA · The first presidential polls after the scandal involving Moraes and Vorcaro
• folha.uol.com.br · Alcolumbre and Moraes are seeking self-protection, says Flávio Bolsonaro in São Paulo
• Gazeta do Povo · Lula says he told Trump that Brazil does not accept interference in its elections
• Seu Dinheiro · The Master-Moraes case keeps reverberating in the election

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched 04/Sep 19:53 BRT), TSE register (official electoral polls).