September 5, 2026

1. Prediction market

The total accumulated volume in the presidential market adds up to USD 143.79M, and this synthesis uses the confirmed reading of September 5, 13:29 BRT. In this round the winner contract did not confirm across the house's two readings and gets no new price: the values of September 4 stand, with Lula at 55.50% (USD 9.76M) and Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.15% (USD 9.69M), a distance of 15.35pp. Renan Santos is at 1.85% (USD 12.68M) and Augusto Cury at 1.95% (USD 4.08M).

What moved was the position market. In the first-round runner-up contract, of USD 6.50M, Flávio rose 2.00pp to 89.50% (USD 597 thousand) and Lula gave up 2.25pp to 5.35% (USD 470 thousand). Only one point in the series has ever been above 89.50%, the 90.50% of August 21.

In the first-round third-place contract, of USD 1.01M, Cury gave up 1.60pp to 51.95% (USD 124 thousand), adding 7.55pp since September 3, and Renan rose 1.00pp to 24.50% (USD 278 thousand). Caiado rose 0.50pp to 9.50% (USD 114 thousand) and Marçal gave up 0.50pp to 2.20% (USD 47 thousand).

The contract on a Supreme Court justice being impeached before 2027 returned to the double reading and stands at 8.65% (USD 88 thousand), against 15.85% the day before, a fall of 7.20pp. On September 4 it went out on a single reading with the day's range declared beside it, and now it did not need that.

In the Senate majority contract, of USD 300 thousand, the PL gave up 0.50pp to 82.00% (USD 260 thousand) and the MDB gave up 1.50pp to 10.75%. In 2026 inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 41.95% (USD 16 thousand).

2. What the polling institutes registered

No national poll was released on September 4 or 5. The most recent is still the Datafolha poll of September 3 (BR-03669/2026, n=2,002, margin of 2pp), which gives Lula 39% and 38% across the two scenarios, Flávio 32% and 33% and Cury 7% and 8%, and measures the runoff at 46% to 44%. Government approval comes in at 45% approving and 51% disapproving, according to G1.

The TSE register explains the absence. On September 5 the ingestion took the presidential poll file from 784 to 805 records, and three of the 23 new protocols are national: AtlasIntel with n=5,000, PoderData with n=3,000 and 100 Cidades with n=2,000. There are eight national polls in the field right now. What came out over the weekend was a breakdown of polls already released, with G1 detailing the groups where the race is tightest, according to Quaest.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between September 6 and 12. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes may delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of at least 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE register via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 10 NATIONAL polls in the window; 46 state-level registrations from the same period were left out by scope. The status is "registered, not published", and confirming an actual release requires two primary sources before citing a number.

3. What the press covered

The crisis involving the Supreme Court remained the dominant subject, with no new act on September 5. The chronology, verified against two independent sources, puts the acts on September 3 and 4: on September 4 the Prosecutor-General's Office ordered an inquiry into whether there was interference in the production of the Federal Police report on the messages between Daniel Vorcaro and Alexandre de Moraes, and asked for authorisation to investigate André Mendonça, according to Gazeta do Povo. On the same day, the Federal Prosecution Council opened a case on the prosecutor-general's conduct, according to Estadão.

On September 5 there was signalling, not decision: Edson Fachin signalled an intention to take both cases to the full bench, according to G1, and the decision has not been taken. The five-day deadlines opened on September 3 are still running.

Folha recorded that Lula narrowed his campaign's inner circle. September 7 entered the agenda from both sides: Gazeta do Povo reported that right-wing rallies gained strength with the case, and the TSE president authorised a televised address by Lula on the date, on September 4.

The TSE said 30 days remain to the first round, in a September 4 note. From this synthesis, it is 29.

4. Divergences of the day

In short

1. The winner contract received no new price, and that absence is the method showing on the screen. Two readings taken eight minutes apart disagreed by 0.30pp on one of the names, and the house rule is to keep the last confirmed price and declare it. The cost is showing the previous day's value; the gain is that no unconfirmed number enters as a measurement.
2. The impeachment contract fell 7.20pp and returned to the normal rule, but its size is part of the information. It holds USD 88 thousand accumulated, the panel's smallest book, and in it the price travelled much of its own range in two days: a high of 19.30% on September 4, 8.65% now and a low of 2.10% on June 8. There was no new act on September 5, and the panel records the move without attributing a cause.
3. The TSE calendar concentrates ten national polls between September 6 and 10, and it is the densest week of the cycle so far. Two carry a sample of 5,000, PALVER and AtlasIntel, and 46 state-level registrations from the same period were left out of the table by scope. After two days with no new vote intention entering the market, the week ahead returns ten readings in five days, and the register is a reminder that registered is not published.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 · Fachin indica intenção de levar ao plenário crise envolvendo Moraes e Mendonça
• Gazeta do Povo · PGR manda investigar se houve interferência em relatório da PF sobre Moraes e Vorcaro
• Estadão · Conselho do MPF abre processo sobre Gonet por conversas com Daniel Vorcaro
• Gazeta do Povo · 7 de Setembro: atos da direita ganham força com caso Master e reação de Moraes contra Mendonça
• Gazeta do Povo · Nunes Marques autoriza Lula a fazer pronunciamento sobre o 7 de Setembro

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula restringe núcleo de campanha e planeja reforço após se queixar de resultados
• Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · Faltam 30 dias: Brasil tem mais de 158 milhões de eleitoras e eleitores aptos a votar
• G1 · Datafolha: 51% desaprovam governo Lula e 45% aprovam
• G1 · Quaest: veja os grupos em que a disputa entre Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro está mais apertada
• VEJA · Nova pesquisa BTG/Nexus testa Lula x Flávio após crise no STF e cenário com Cury no segundo turno

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 5, 13:29 BRT), TSE register (official electoral polls).