September 16, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential election winner contract widened the spread again after one day of narrowing, and both sides moved. In the confirmed reading of September 16, at 12:41 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 53.75% (USD 10.82M), 1.80pp above the 51.95% of September 15, and Lula at 44.50% (USD 11.16M), 2.00pp below the 46.50%. The distance went from 5.45pp to 9.25pp, with total presidential volume at USD 150.50M accumulated.

Neither is an extreme: Flávio sits 1.35pp below his series high, of 55.10% on September 10, and Lula 10.00pp above his floor, of 34.50% on April 25. Renan Santos gave up 0.30pp, to 1.35% (USD 13.54M), and Augusto Cury 0.20pp, to 0.25% (USD 4.90M). The contract with the largest accumulated volume in the book is Tarcísio de Freitas's, USD 14.07M, parked at 0.05%, and not Renan Santos's, as the September 15 briefing stated.

In the first-round runner-up contract the sides moved in opposite directions: Lula rose 2.00pp, to 23.85% (USD 745 thousand), and Flávio gave up 1.00pp, to 75.50% (USD 854 thousand). The third-place contract received a confirmed price again, against the September 14 values: Cury at 45.50% (USD 198 thousand, +0.10pp), Renan Santos at 36.50% (USD 311 thousand, -1.00pp) and Ronaldo Caiado at 15.50% (USD 130 thousand), unchanged.

The Supreme Court impeachment contract stands at 4.85% (USD 91 thousand), 0.10pp below the previous day and with the same accumulated volume, that is, with no new money in the book. In the Senate contract the Liberal Party stands at 83.50% (USD 261 thousand), 0.50pp below September 15.

2. What the polling houses recorded

DataTrends released on September 16 the national poll with fieldwork from September 12 to 14, 2,000 interviews by automated telephone, a margin of 2.19pp and register BR-08691/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court. It gives the first round to Lula by 39% to 35%, with Cury at 6%, Renan Santos at 4% and Caiado at 3%, and the runoff to Flávio Bolsonaro by 45% to 44%, inside the margin, according to Correio Braziliense and Revista Oeste. In the other pairs Lula beats Zema by 46% to 39%, Cury by 42% to 37% and Caiado by 44% to 41%, according to Correio and the Blog do Edmar Lyra.

The Court's register received 21 new polls and lost one: BR-01431/2026, from American Analytics, a national poll scheduled for release on September 16 itself, which had been on this briefing's calendar since September 11. The house has another national registration, BR-02587/2026, with the same sample and methodology and release on September 21. The register does not state the reason for the removal.

Poll calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the Superior Electoral Court with release scheduled between Sep 17 and Sep 23. Being on the table does not mean release is confirmed, because houses can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more.

Source: the public Superior Electoral Court register via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 11 national polls in the window, and 60 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not released.

3. What the press covered

The full Supreme Court suspended on September 15, with no decision, the review of whether to investigate Alexandre de Moraes over his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro. Flávio Dino asked for more time to review the case, which gives him up to 90 days to return it, and the justices did not reach the main point, according to Gazeta do Povo and Poder360. Before the session, Dino sent Fachin a request to investigate possible links between André Mendonça and Vorcaro, as Gazeta and CartaCapital report.

Both campaigns responded to the Supreme Court. Lula, in a podcast interview, said he was not president when Moraes was appointed and that Flávio criticizes the justice because he ordered the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro and those involved in January 8, according to CartaCapital, Poder360 and Correio Braziliense. Flávio, campaigning in Ceará, said that voting for Lula is voting for Moraes and that the next president will appoint five more justices to the Supreme Court.

The list of candidates also changed. The Electoral Court rejected Pablo Marçal's registration on September 11, and on September 15 the PRTB announced Leonardo Avalanche in his place, in a substitution still pending judgment, according to Gazeta do Povo and NSC Total. The presidential book has no contract with Avalanche's name.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The spread widened again, and this time both sides moved. Flávio Bolsonaro rose 1.80pp, to 53.75%, and Lula fell 2.00pp, to 44.50%, taking the distance from 5.45pp to 9.25pp. Neither price is a series extreme.

Mid-September polls split by interview mode, not by date. Indexa/Broadcast and DataTrends, by telephone, measure the runoff 1 point apart with opposite signs; CNT/MDA, in person, measures 7.3 points for Lula. The calendar has eleven national polls through September 21, five of them on September 17, including Datafolha and AtlasIntel.

The Supreme Court stopped without deciding, and the list of candidates changed by decision of the Electoral Court. Dino's request for more time suspends the review on Moraes for up to 90 days, and the impeachment contract stood still in volume. The Electoral Court rejected Marçal on September 11, and the PRTB announced Leonardo Avalanche, with the substitution still pending judgment.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Correio Braziliense · DataTrends shows Lula leading the first round and statistical ties in the runoff
• Revista Oeste · Flávio Bolsonaro leads runoff simulation against Lula, DataTrends shows
• Blog do Edmar Lyra · DataTrends: Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 35% in the first round
• Gazeta do Povo · Supreme Court suspends review of Moraes investigation after request for more time
• Poder360 · A day after the Supreme Court saved Moraes, Lula praises the justice
• Gazeta do Povo · Flávio Dino requests investigation of André Mendonça over alleged link to banker
• CartaCapital · Supreme Court crisis: session on Moraes illustrates internal rupture
• CartaCapital · 'I was not president when Moraes was appointed', says Lula amid Supreme Court crisis
• Poder360 · Lula says Flávio Bolsonaro criticizes Moraes for personal reasons
• Correio Braziliense · Lula says Flávio is tied to Master and angry at Moraes over January 8
• Revista Oeste · 'Voting for Lula is voting for Alexandre de Moraes', says Flávio
• TMC · Flávio Bolsonaro ties Lula to the Supreme Court and promises to renew it if he wins in 2026
• Gazeta do Povo · PRTB launches Leonardo Avalanche for President after Electoral Court bars Marçal
• NSC Total · Leonardo Avalanche announced as PRTB presidential candidate in place of Marçal

matérias secundárias (URL de redirecionamento, clique resolve à matéria):

• Estadão · Marçal is replaced by Leonardo Avalanche on the PRTB presidential ticket
• Folha de S.Paulo · PRTB replaces Pablo Marçal and names Leonardo Avalanche as presidential candidate
• GP1 · DataTrends: Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 45% and Lula has 44% in a possible runoff

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, reading confirmed on Sep 16 at 12:41 BRT), Superior Electoral Court register (official electoral polls).