September 15, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential election winner contract narrowed the spread after two days of widening, and only one side moved. In the confirmed reading of September 15, at 16:37 BRT, Lula stands at 46.50% (USD 11.11M) against 45.50% the previous day, and Flávio Bolsonaro ended at the same 51.95% (USD 10.73M) as September 14. The distance fell from 6.45pp to 5.45pp, with total presidential volume at USD 150.22M accumulated, above the USD 150M mark.

Neither price is an extreme: Flávio sits 3.15pp below his series high, of 55.10% on September 10, and Lula 21.00pp below his, of 67.50% on August 16.

In the first-round runner-up contract the two sides moved in opposite directions: Flávio rose 1.00pp, to 76.50%, and Lula gave up 1.90pp, to 21.85%. The third-place contract receives no new price in this round, and keeps the values of September 14. Renan Santos gave up 0.05pp in the winner contract, to 1.65%, and Augusto Cury rose 0.10pp, to 0.45%.

In the Supreme Court impeachment contract the path matters more than the close: 8.05% in the certified reading of 14:44, 2.80pp above the previous day, and 4.95% in the 16:37 one, that is 0.30pp below the 5.25% of September 14, in a book of USD 91 thousand. In the Senate contract the Liberal Party stays at 84.00%.

2. What the polling houses recorded

Two national polls came out on September 15 and both put Lula ahead in both rounds. Indexa/Broadcast, with fieldwork from September 10 to 13, 2,000 telephone interviews, a margin of 2.2pp and register BR-03482/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court, gives Lula the first round by 38% to 34% and the runoff by 43% to 42%, according to Gazeta do Povo and Exame.

CNT/MDA, with fieldwork from September 9 to 13, 2,002 in-person interviews, the same margin and register BR-06902/2026, gives the first round by 40.5% to 30.4% and the runoff by 47.3% to 40%, according to Gazeta do Povo and CNN Brasil.

In Indexa/Broadcast the 4 points of the first round fit inside two margins of 2.2, so neither round there separates the candidates with room to spare. In CNT/MDA the distances of 10.1 and 7.3 points fall outside two margins.

Poll calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the Superior Electoral Court with release scheduled between Sep 16 and Sep 20. Being on the table does not mean release is confirmed, because houses can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more.

Source: the public Superior Electoral Court register via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 10 national polls in the window, and 57 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not released.

3. What the press covered

The Supreme Court plenary opened on September 15 the session on the request to investigate Alexandre de Moraes, arising from the messages on Daniel Vorcaro's phone, and did not reach the merits. Edson Fachin opened the proceedings saying the court must judge facts and not people. Kassio Nunes Marques declared himself out of the vote because he presides over the Superior Electoral Court, and Dias Toffoli on grounds of personal conscience. The day was spent on a preliminary question: whether the case is postponed and whether it joins the one on André Mendonça. Fachin voted against postponement and for keeping the cases separate, with Dino and Zanin dissenting, and Gilmar Mendes proposed merging the petitions to judge them on September 23.

The tone was one of direct confrontation between justices. Moraes said he has witnesses that Mendonça used the Federal Police to include him in a plea deal, and Mendonça answered that it is a lie. Gilmar called Mendonça an "electoral puppet", and Dino said that, if the procedure stays as it is, there will be a crisis a week.

The two campaigns treated the day in opposite ways. Flávio Bolsonaro watched the session on a hotel television in Fortaleza and recorded a video saying Lula shared power with Moraes. Supporters of his and of Zema protested in Brasília during the session. Lula ignored the judgment at a ceremony at the presidential palace, where he signed the tax relief for the data center sector.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The spread narrowed 1.00pp with only one side moving, and that is different information from "both moved". Lula rose 1.00pp, to 46.50%, and Flávio Bolsonaro ended at the same 51.95% as September 14. The distance went from 6.45pp to 5.45pp, interrupting two days of widening, and within the afternoon it got 0.30pp narrower before Flávio's side recovered the difference.

The presidential book passed USD 150M, and the mark was crossed on USD 400 thousand of new money in 24 hours. It was USD 149.82M in the confirmed reading of September 14 and stands at USD 150.22M in the one of the 15th. Accumulated volume measures interest since the book opened, not probability now, and it grows even when the price does not move. The contrast is right there: the contract with the largest volume in the book is Renan Santos's, USD 13.49M, and it pays 1.65%.

The two national polls agree on the sign and disagree on the magnitude, and the week still has ten to come. Indexa/Broadcast and CNT/MDA put Lula ahead in both rounds, and the runoff gap is 1 point in one and 7.3 points in the other. The Court register took in 14 new polls on September 15, with no withdrawal, and from September 16 to 20 ten national polls come out, five of them on the 17th and Veritá, with 40,500 interviews, on the 18th.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Gazeta do Povo · Fachin votes against postponing the Moraes judgment; Dino and Zanin dissent
• Poder360 · Moraes says he has witnesses against Mendonça, who answers: "A lie"
• Poder360 · Gilmar calls Mendonça an "electoral puppet" in the Moraes-Vorcaro case
• CartaCapital · Moraes says Mendonça serves a group that tried to stage a coup in the country
• CartaCapital · Dino challenges Fachin and says the Chief Justice could not take over the Moraes case
• Metrópoles · Supreme Court: "If it stays as it is, there will be a crisis a week", says Dino on the procedure
• Metrópoles · Flávio watches the Moraes judgment on a hotel TV in Fortaleza
• Valor · Supporters of Zema and Flávio protest against the Supreme Court, Moraes and Lula during the session
• Estadão · Lula signs the bill creating the tax relief regime for the data center sector
• Estadão · A Lula minister says the Supreme Court session will help voters see candidates' links to Master
• Poder360 · Lula shares a video on Flávio's "plan"
• Gazeta do Povo · The numbers of the Indexa/Broadcast presidential poll
• Gazeta do Povo · CNT/MDA releases a presidential poll
• Exame · Indexa/Broadcast poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie in the runoff
• Exame · CNT/MDA: Lula has 47.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% in the runoff
• CNN Brasil · CNT/MDA: Lula has 47.3% and Flávio 40% in the runoff

matérias secundárias (URL de redirecionamento, clique resolve à matéria):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula ignores the Moraes judgment at a ceremony at the presidential palace

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, reading confirmed on Sep 15 at 16:37 BRT), Superior Electoral Court register (official electoral polls).