September 19, 2026

AFOS Daily · Daily Briefing

September 19, 2026

1. Prediction market

The Polymarket presidential contract closed the reading confirmed at 19:20 BRT with Flávio Bolsonaro at 56.75% (USD 11.03M) and Lula at 40.50% (USD 11.41M). The spread went from 14.00pp to 16.25pp, and it is the largest lead ever recorded for Flávio over Lula since April 14, across 633 readings from the database backup. The opposite extreme of the same series is 41.80pp in Lula's favour, on August 1. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book stands at USD 151.75M.

Who moved changes the sentence: Flávio rose 0.25pp and Lula fell 2.00pp, and the widening of the spread belongs entirely to the side that retreated. And the 56.75% is not the top of his series since April 14: the highest value ever recorded is 56.80%, and today's price sits 0.05pp below it.

The day's strong move is in the secondary books. In the first-round runner-up contract, Flávio rose 5.00pp, to 74.50% (USD 0.98M), and Lula fell 4.70pp, to 24.65% (USD 0.83M), leaving the top of his series in that book, recorded the previous day at 29.40%. That is twenty times what Flávio moved in the winner contract. One pays for winning the election, the other for finishing the first round in second place.

In the third way, the third-place contract pulled the top two apart: Renan Santos rose 2.00pp, to 51.00% (USD 349 thousand), Augusto Cury fell 4.65pp, to 36.35% (USD 230 thousand), the panel's largest fall in the round, and Ronaldo Caiado rose 1.00pp, to 11.50% (USD 138 thousand). The distance between Renan and Cury went from 8.00pp to 14.65pp in one day.

The contract on a Supreme Court justice leaving by impeachment before 2027 fell 0.05pp, to 4.55% (USD 92 thousand), the smallest move on the panel, and the Senate majority one received no new price. Against intuition, the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book does not belong to the leader: it belongs to Tarcísio de Freitas, USD 14.08M, trading today at 0.05%. Volume measures the contract's past, not conviction now.

2. What the polling firms registered

No national poll was released on September 18 or 19, and the panel's benchmark is still the September 17 pair, which disagrees with itself. Datafolha, face to face, fieldwork September 15 to 16, 2,002 interviews and a 2.0pp margin, gives the runoff to Lula 46% to 44%. Futura Inteligência, commissioned by 100% Cidades, by telephone, fieldwork September 11 to 15, 2,000 interviews and a 2.2pp margin, gives it to Flávio 48.1% to 43.7%. That is 6.4 points on the same pair, with the sign reversed. In the first round both put Lula ahead, by 3 points and by 0.6 point.

The TSE register grew from 968 to 997 presidential polls, and two left the official archive, with AFOS's two independent counts agreeing. One of them was national, with publication set for September 23 and therefore not yet due: protocol BR-00548/2026, from Real Time Big Data, which the September 18 briefing listed in this same table with a scope caveat. Today's calendar goes out without it.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 20/Sep and 26/Sep. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because firms can delay or cancel release. Filters applied: national scope and sample size of at least 1,000.

Source: public TSE register via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 12 national polls in the window, and 63 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample size. The label on BR-04202/2026 comes marked because it derives from the sampling plan, a field this firm repeats in state polls. Six of the twelve publish on September 24, and the status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro held simultaneous rallies in Santa Catarina. Lula said he wants to win the election to keep Jair Bolsonaro in prison. Flávio accused Lula of trying to buy the votes of the poor with the Bolsa Família increase.

At the Supreme Court, the First Panel rejected on September 18 the appeal from the federal public defender and upheld Eduardo Bolsonaro's sentence of 4 years and 2 months for coercion in the course of proceedings, also reported by O Globo. The conviction dates from June this year, and what changed was the denial of the appeal.

The Master case went into the weekend with no decision: the request to revoke Daniel Vorcaro's detention, filed on September 18, remains with Edson Fachin, and Vorcaro has been in custody since November 17, 2025. What appeared on September 19 was background reporting on the relationship between the prosecutor general and the banker, not a procedural act.

On the measuring instrument itself, the electoral courts barred on September 18 a poll by Instituto Veritá in Amazonas, protocol AM-08447/2026, and the Rondônia regional electoral court pulled another from circulation with a fine of R$ 53,205. Both decisions concern state polls and do not reach the firm's national polls that the panel displays.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The 16.25pp spread is the largest since April 14, and it widened through Lula's fall.
2. The day's move stayed outside the headline book, in the runner-up contract.
3. Two rounds with no national poll, and twelve registered for the next seven days.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Gazeta do Povo · Primeira Turma do STF rejeita recurso e mantém condenação de Eduardo Bolsonaro
• O Globo · STF rejeita por unanimidade recurso de Eduardo Bolsonaro contra condenação por coação
• Estadão · Charuto, Macallan, saudades e foto juntos: o que se sabe da relação entre Paulo Gonet e Vorcaro

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• G1 · Lula e Flávio fazem comícios simultâneos em SC, reduto do bolsonarismo
• VEJA · Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro fazem comícios simultâneos em Santa Catarina neste sábado
• UOL Notícias · Lula diz que quer ganhar eleições para manter Jair Bolsonaro preso
• Tribuna de Jundiaí · Lula diz que Flávio quer libertar Bolsonaro e afirma: Quero ganhar para manter ele na cadeia
• Poder360 · Flávio diz que Lula tenta comprar voto dos pobres com Bolsa Família
• Estadão · Flávio acusa Lula de aumentar Bolsa Família por desespero e tentar comprar voto dos pobres
• cm7brasil · Justiça Eleitoral barra pesquisa do Instituto Veritá e aplica multa de R$ 53 mil no Amazonas
• Rondoniagora · TRE de Rondônia manda retirar pesquisa Veritá de circulação e condena instituto a pagar R$ 53 mil

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched 19/Sep 19:20 BRT), TSE register (official electoral polls).