1. Prediction market

In the outright winner contract of the presidential election, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 58.65% (vol USD 11.15M accumulated) and Lula at 41.50% (vol USD 11.45M accumulated). Total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 152.02M. Both rose in 24 hours, Flávio by 1.90pp and Lula by 1.00pp, and the gap widened from 16.25pp to 17.15pp.

That gap is the widest of the 155 days in which the recorded series has both sides, since April 14, 2026, measured at daily closes, which are a floor because they hide the peak inside the day. The previous one was 16.30pp, on September 19. The climb starts from 2.10pp on September 12, passing through 14.00pp on the 18th. On the 19th what opened the distance was Lula's fall; on the 20th it was the opposite.

In the third place contract of the first round, Renan Santos rises 1.50pp and closes at 52.50% (vol USD 355 thousand accumulated) and Augusto Cury falls 3.80pp, to 32.55% (vol USD 237 thousand accumulated), the largest fall of the day. Ronaldo Caiado stays at 11.50% and Romeu Zema rises 0.90pp, to 1.25%. In the winner book, the largest accumulated volume does not belong to whoever leads the price: it belongs to Tarcísio de Freitas, USD 14.08M, parked at 0.05%.

Two contracts did not receive a new price, and for those the panel publishes the range of the recorded readings. In second place in the first round, on September 19 Flávio's contract ranged from 69.00% to 73.50% and Lula's from 25.80% to 29.20%; in the Senate majority contract, the Partido Liberal one ranged from 82.50% to 85.00%.

The contract paying out on a Supreme Court justice leaving by impeachment before 2027 stands at 4.40% (vol USD 92 thousand accumulated), 0.15pp below the 4.55% of September 19. It is a thin book, and the move fits inside its own noise.

2. What the pollsters registered

No new national poll with numbers in a primary source has come out since September 17. The two most recent remain Datafolha (n=2,002, in person, margin of 2.0pp) and Futura/100% Cidades (n=2,000, by phone, margin of 2.2pp). In both, Lula leads the first round, 39% to 36% and 38.3% to 37.7%, and in Datafolha he leads the simulated runoff by 46% to 44%. The three distances fit inside two margins.

Instituto Veritá released on September 20 a survey presented as national, with 40,500 interviews. The document shows that this number is the consolidation of 27 state polls, each with its own registration at the TSE, and the sum of the 27 samples comes to exactly 40,500. The margin published with it, 2.0 to 3.5 points, is the range of the state margins, and for that reason the number does not enter the AFOS panel.

The TSE registry grew by 41 rows in the September 20 ingestion, above the 31 of the 19th, and two independent counts agree that no poll left the archive in the interval.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Sep 21 and Sep 24. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed: pollsters can delay or cancel. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Date	Pollster	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
Sep 21	Quaest	2,004	national	BR-06004/2026	0.9
Sep 21	American Analytics	2,000	national	BR-02587/2026	0.7
Sep 21	NEXUS	2,000	national	BR-00485/2026	0.7
Sep 23	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-04739/2026	0.9
Sep 24	PALVER	5,000	national	BR-09587/2026	0.7
Sep 24	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-01739/2026	0.7
Sep 24	Alfa Inteligência	2,700	national	BR-02512/2026	0.7
Sep 24	Datafolha	2,002	national	BR-00304/2026	0.9
Sep 24	Real Time Big Data	2,000	national	BR-04202/2026	0.9
Sep 24	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-05268/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 10 NATIONAL and LIVE polls in the window; 102 records were left out by scope or sample, and 1 national left the TSE registry after being registered, so it is not a commitment. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The subject of the day was a video published on September 20 by Lauro Jardim's column in O Globo, showing Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his wife, the lawyer Viviane Barci, leaving an Embraer Legacy 650 belonging to a company that had Daniel Vorcaro as a partner. The flight is from August 22, 2025. The Barci de Moraes firm denied, in a statement, any personal tie to aircraft owners. A Federal Police report unsealed by Justice André Mendonça cites the plane as payment for a second contract, worth R$ 50 million, on top of the already known one of roughly R$ 131 million with Banco Master, according to the chronology published by Folha from the messages.

Flávio's campaign and allies used the video to wear down the government, and the PT answered on the same ground. Both campaigns also went to the TSE against each other on September 20: the court accepted opening a case by Flávio against Lula over a parade at the Rio Carnival, and Lula's coalition went to the same court over the alleged use of profiles to boost Flávio's content.

Lula travels to the UN and may meet Donald Trump, and in Bahia he said he wants to win the election to keep Jair Bolsonaro in prison. Exame published an analysis according to which Flávio could be the first candidate to come from behind in a runoff since 1988.

4. Divergences of the day

Market x poll: the price puts Flávio 17.15pp ahead, and the two most recent national polls, those of September 17, put Lula ahead in the first round and in Datafolha's simulated runoff. What grew was not disagreement between two new numbers: it was the price moving with the poll standing still.

Market x market: in the third place contract, Renan Santos stands at 52.50% and Augusto Cury at 32.55%, while the two national polls of September 17 put Cury third and Renan fourth. This divergence does not depend on margin of error: they are different positions, not close numbers.

Narrative x price: the institutional subject dominated coverage on September 20, and the impeachment contract at the Supreme Court gave back 0.15pp, from 4.55% to 4.40%. AFOS does not attribute the move to the news cycle: it records that the price did not react in the direction the coverage would suggest.

In summary

The 17.15pp gap exceeds any daily close in the series since April 14. And this time it opened with both prices rising, not with one side falling.
The 40,500 interviews attributed to a national survey are the sum of 27 state polls. The margin published with them is the range of the state margins, not a national margin.
Ten national polls have a registered release over the next four days. Six fall on September 24, and an eleventh left the registry after being registered.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 20, 10:19 PM BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

September 20, 2026