September 23, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket outright winner contract, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 58.85% (USD 11.58M) and Lula at 40.50% (USD 11.96M), in the reading confirmed on September 23 at 11:54 BRT. The gap is 18.35pp, against 19.05pp in the reading confirmed on September 22 at 14:40 BRT, and it is the second straight day of closing. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book is USD 154.05M across 19 contracts.

It is the cleanest binary-pair case this panel has ever recorded, because one of the sides stayed exactly the same. Lula's price is 40.50% in both readings, and the one who gave ground was Flávio Bolsonaro, 0.70pp. Except that the sum of the two sides deflated from 100.05 to 99.35, and by the normalized count Lula gains 0.29pp of implied probability with his price standing still, while Flávio Bolsonaro gives up the same 0.29pp. Whoever reads only the raw figure writes that Lula did not move, and that describes the book, not the race.

In the first-round second-place contract the same instrument points the other way and harder. Flávio Bolsonaro rises 2.00pp raw and 3.46pp normalized, to 71.50% (USD 1.08M), and Lula falls 3.95pp raw and 3.46pp normalized, to 25.85% (USD 0.90M), because that pair shrank from 99.30 to 97.35. It is the second straight day in which the panel's two books move in opposite directions.

In the third-place book the convergence of the two previous rounds stopped and went backwards. Renan Santos rises 1.50pp, to 44.00% (USD 0.40M), the largest rise in that book, and Augusto Cury rises 0.40pp, to 39.85% (USD 0.27M), so the distance between them widens from 3.05pp to 4.15pp. Across four certified readings it went 19.95pp, 5.25pp, 3.05pp and now 4.15pp. Ronaldo Caiado gives up 1.00pp, to 14.50% (USD 0.16M), and keeps third place, and Romeu Zema gets no new price, at 0.30%.

A lead changed hands outside the price: Renan Santos's contract in the winner book is now the one with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential book, USD 14.17M against USD 14.09M for Tarcísio de Freitas's. The contract on a Supreme Court justice leaving by impeachment before 2027 stays at 4.30% (USD 0.09M), with no new price for the second day.

2. What the polling firms registered

AtlasIntel in partnership with Bloomberg released round BR-04739/2026: 5,015 participants by internet questionnaire between September 17 and September 22, with a margin of 1.0 point. In the first round, Lula has 45.8% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43.4%, with Renan Santos at 4.5%, Augusto Cury at 2.1%, Ronaldo Caiado at 1.3% and Romeu Zema at 0.9%.

The distance at the top did not move against the same firm's round of September 17. Both rose 1.7 point each, and the bill was paid by the entire third way, with Augusto Cury falling from 3.5% to 2.1%, Renan Santos from 5.1% to 4.5% and blank and void ballots from 1.6% to 0.7%.

In the main runoff pairing the sign flipped inside the firm's own series: Lula has 47.7% and Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4%, after 46.8% to 47.2% on September 17. The firm calls it a technical tie for the third week running. Lula wins or ties the five pairings tested, and the closest after Flávio Bolsonaro is Ronaldo Caiado, 46.6% to 44.0%.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between September 24 and September 27. Being in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because firms can delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample of at least 1,000. Each registration number links to the TSE public search.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 8 live national polls in the window, and 103 registrations were left out by scope or sample. The status is registered, not published. Real Time's national label for September 24 rests on a sampling plan the firm repeats in 12 of 12 of its state polls, so that scope is checked at release.

3. What the press covered

At the Supreme Court, the day was one of refusal. Cristiano Zanin denied the injunction that would force Davi Alcolumbre to move the Banco Master congressional inquiry forward, in a writ of mandamus filed by senator Alessandro Vieira. The decision is dated September 22 and was published on the 23rd. The request was filed on March 9 with the signatures of 41 senators, and almost six months later it had not been read on the floor.

Outside the Supreme Court, an electoral ruling was published on September 23. The Superior Electoral Court ordered the takedown of a video recorded at the Alvorada Palace in which Lula discusses the Banco Master case, at the request of Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, and gave the government five days to provide information.

The AtlasIntel electoral round measured perception of the crisis: 52.3% say it hurts Lula's candidacy more and 20.8% say it hurts Flávio Bolsonaro's more. On which group is more involved in the Banco Master scheme, 43.8% point to Jair Bolsonaro's allies and 43.4% to Lula's allies, a tie inside the margin.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

Lula's motionless price was the most informative movement of the day. He stayed at 40.50% in both readings and gained 0.29pp of implied probability, because the sum of the pair shrank, and it is the sharpest demonstration that the raw number alone is not enough.

AtlasIntel flipped its own runoff without moving the distance in the first round. The two at the top rose 1.7 point each and the one that gave ground was the entire third way.

At the Supreme Court, the September 22 decision was a decision not to rule on the merits. Zanin refused to force the Senate to open the inquiry, and the impeachment contract still has no new price.

---

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Gazeta do Povo · Zanin nega liminar para obrigar Alcolumbre a pautar CPI sobre Moraes, Toffoli e Vorcaro
• CartaCapital · Zanin nega pedido para obrigar Senado a instalar CPI do Banco Master
• CartaCapital · Pesquisa Atlas mostra empate entre Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro em 2º turno

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• CNN Brasil · Atlas/Bloomberg: Lula tem 45,8% no 1º turno; Flávio, 43,4%
• Estadão · Pesquisa Atlas/Bloomberg: Lula tem 47,7% e Flávio Bolsonaro registra 47,4% no 2º turno
• JOTA · AtlasIntel: Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro empatam tecnicamente tanto no 1º quanto no 2º turno
• Poder360 · Lula tem 47,7% e Flávio tem 47,4% no 2º turno, diz AtlasIntel
• CNN Brasil · Zanin nega pedido de liminar para abrir CPI sobre ministros e caso Master
• Estadão · Nunes Marques manda Lula retirar do ar vídeo sobre Banco Master gravado no Alvorada
• G1 · A pedido de Flávio Bolsonaro, Nunes Marques manda tirar do ar vídeo em que Lula fala do caso Master
• Folha de S.Paulo · Zanin nega pedido para determinar instalação de CPI do Banco Master