September 24, 2026

1. Prediction market

In the Polymarket outright winner contract, in the reading confirmed on September 24, 22:45 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 55.55% (USD 11.79M) and Lula at 43.50% (USD 12.18M), with the gap at 12.05pp against 18.35pp in the certified reading of September 23. Lula rises 3.00pp raw and 3.15pp normalized, and Flávio Bolsonaro gives up 3.30pp and 3.15pp, neither of them at an extreme of the series recorded since April 14. Total accumulated volume in the presidential book is USD 154.90M across 19 contracts.

In the first round runner-up contract he goes the other way: up 4.00pp raw, to 75.50% (USD 1.14M), while Lula gives up 1.35pp, to 24.50% (USD 0.98M). There the raw figure overstates it, and normalized the move is 2.05pp.

In the third place book almost nothing moved: Renan Santos stays at the same 44.00% (USD 0.41M), Augusto Cury rises 0.10pp, to 39.95% (USD 0.27M), the distance between them closes to 4.05pp and Ronaldo Caiado gives up 0.50pp, to 14.00%. Renan Santos leads volume in both books without leading the price, USD 14.39M and USD 1.36M. The Supreme Court impeachment contract gives up 0.95pp, to 3.35% (USD 0.09M), and the Senate book has no new reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

Of the six national polls of the day, in the first round Alfa Inteligência with TMC gives Lula 40% to 33%, Real Time Big Data 41% to 37%, PoderData with Aya 41% to 39%, Datafolha 40% to 36%, Palver a 43% tie, and Futura commissioned by 100% Cidades puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 40.4% to 38.4%.

In the second round, Datafolha is the only one that puts Lula ahead, 47% to 45%, Alfa gives a 43% tie and the other four put him in front: Futura by 49.4% to 43.7%, Palver by 48% to 45%, PoderData by 46% to 45% and Real Time by 45% to 44%. And it is not the first time: of the 34 readings of the pairing already recorded, 11 fell outside the margin and 8 favoured Flávio Bolsonaro.

Datafolha measures 80% of the electorate decided, ten days from the first round.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between September 25 and October 01. Registered is not published: firms can delay or cancel. Filters: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more, with each registration linked to the TSE.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. These are the 11 national polls in the window, and 99 registrations were left out by scope, 95 state and 4 with no declared scope. A caveat on the last row: Real Time's national label on BR-04482/2026 comes from the sampling plan, a field the firm repeats in 16 of 16 state polls, and it will be checked at release.

3. What the press covered

Estadão published on September 24 messages from the phone of Daniel Vorcaro, in custody since November 17, 2025. They show four attempts by Flávio Bolsonaro to contact the banker between November 13 and 16, 2025, confirmed by Gazeta do Povo with its own sources, and part of them concerns the financing of the film Dark Horse. The Globo group carries the same material.

On the other side, it brings a lawyer's account of thanks for whisky sent by the banker and the effort to get closer to the government. In Rio, the president replied that a president's friend is the people and not Vorcaro, and Flávio Bolsonaro asked the Supreme Court to investigate the relationship between the two.

On the institutional front, Galípolo confirmed a Federal Police summons and is due to testify in early October about the supervision of Banco Master, with Roberto Campos Neto and André Esteves summoned as witnesses. Gilmar Mendes took to the full bench of the Supreme Court a dispute over power plant court-ordered debts of R$ 103 billion, after messages from the same material showed interest in one justice's vote. And Vorcaro's testimony set for the day did not happen: Gazeta do Povo, the only source for the point, reports a postponement by the PF at the request of the defence.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

The market moved more in one step than in any other since this record began. The gap closed from 18.35pp to 12.05pp between the certified readings of September 23 and 24, 6.30pp at once, almost twice the second largest, the 3.35pp from September 21 to 22. It is the third straight day of closing, and this time the raw and the normalized figures say the same thing: the sum of the pair stood at 99.05 against 99.35, and when it barely moves there is no overpricing left to redistribute.

Six national polls on the same day did not produce an answer, they produced a spread. In the first round it runs from Lula 40% to 33% at Alfa to Flávio Bolsonaro 40.4% to 38.4% at Futura, and in the second from Lula 47% to 45% at Datafolha to Flávio Bolsonaro 49.4% to 43.7% at the same Futura, the only one of the six outside the poll's own margin. Measured firm by firm against its own previous wave, the direction comes out 3 to 3, and the third way splits more than the front pair: Renan Santos runs from 8% at Palver to 2.4% at Futura.

The Master case moved through the release of material, not through a decision, and the material did not pick a side. The messages published by Estadão show four attempts by Flávio Bolsonaro to contact the banker between November 13 and 16, 2025, and the effort by a lawyer to bring him closer to the Lula government. Nothing was decided: Vorcaro's testimony was postponed, Galípolo's is set for early October, and the Supreme Court impeachment contract gave up 0.95pp, to 3.35%, with the panel linking neither to the other.

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Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 · Datafolha, 1º turno: Lula, 40%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 36%; Cury, 5%; Caiado, 4%; Renan, 3%; Zema, 1%
• G1 · Datafolha, 2º turno: Lula, 47%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 45%
• Gazeta do Povo · Flávio Bolsonaro tentou ligar para Vorcaro nos 4 dias antes da prisão do banqueiro
• O Globo · Flávio Bolsonaro tentou falar com Vorcaro na véspera da prisão do banqueiro, mostram mensagens
• Gazeta do Povo · Advogado relata agradecimento de Lula por whisky enviado por Vorcaro
• G1 · Lula diz que amigo de presidente é o povo, não é Vorcaro, dono do Banco Master
• Estadão · Galípolo confirma intimação da PF para depor em outubro sobre Banco Master
• Gazeta do Povo · Gilmar envia ao plenário do STF disputa bilionária ligada ao caso Master
• Gazeta do Povo · PF adia novamente depoimento de Vorcaro marcado para esta quinta (24)
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro, investigado no caso Dark Horse, pede que Mendonça apure relação entre Lula e Vorcaro

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Exame · Pesquisa Alfa/TMC: Lula cai para 40% e Flávio Bolsonaro sobe para 33% no 1º turno
• CNN Brasil · Real Time Big Data: Lula tem 41% no 1º turno; Flávio, 37%
• CNN Brasil · Real Time Big Data: Flávio tem 45% no 2º turno; Lula, 44%
• CNN Brasil · PoderData: Lula tem 41% das intenções de voto no 1º turno; Flávio, 39%
• CNN Brasil · PoderData/AYA: Flávio tem 46% das intenções de voto no 2º turno; Lula, 45%
• CNN Brasil · Palver: Flávio e Lula empatam no 1º turno em 43%
• CNN Brasil · Palver: Flávio tem 48% das intenções de voto no 2º turno; Lula, 45%
• CNN Brasil · Futura: Flávio tem 40,4% das intenções de voto no 1º turno; Lula, 38,4%
• Exame · Futura: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 49,4% e Lula, 43,7%, no 2º turno
• Brasil de Fato · Real Time Big Data: Lula tem 41% e Flávio Bolsonaro soma 37% no primeiro turno
• Metrópoles · Real Time Big Data: Lula tem 41% e Flávio Bolsonaro marca 37% no 1º turno
• Pleno.News · PoderData/Aya: Flávio tem 46% contra 45% de Lula em 2° turno

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Sep 24, 22:45 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).