October 23, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap narrows by 2.20 points. In the confirmed reading of October 23 at 19:10 BRT, the winner contract pays 76.50% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 25.74M) and 23.50% for Lula (USD 29.08M). Against the confirmed reading of October 22 at 17:56 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 1.20pp and Lula rises 1.00pp; since the pair's sum went from 100.20 to 100.00, the normalized move is 1.04pp for each side. The gap goes from 55.20pp to 53.00pp. The total volume accumulated in the presidential book is USD 193.32M, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.35% (USD 0.10M), 0.05pp above the reading of October 22. In the 2026 inflation contract, in the 19:16 BRT reading against the one of October 22 at 18:16 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% band goes from 70.70% to 72.00% (USD 29 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% band from 14.00% to 13.45% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% band from 11.70% to 11.60% (USD 33 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Seven new national polls. Datafolha, released on the night of October 22, with 2,154 interviews from October 20 to 22, gives 47% to Flávio Bolsonaro and 46% to Lula in total votes and a tie at 50% in valid votes. On October 23, Vox Brasil, with 2,100 in-person interviews from October 20 to 22, gives 45.4% to Lula and 44.3% to Flávio Bolsonaro in total votes and 50.6% to 49.4% in valid votes. The other five put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead: Ipespe/Abrapel by 48% to 47% in total votes and 50.5% to 49.5% in valid votes; Real Time Big Data by 49% to 45% and 52% to 48%; Veritá, with 15,554 interviews, by 50.2% to 47.5% and 51.3% to 48.7%; DataTrends by 50% to 46% and 51.9% to 48.1%; and Alfa Inteligência, which released only valid votes, by 52% to 48%.

Round against round. Against each pollster's previous round, the distance in Flávio Bolsonaro's favor in total votes falls from 2 to 1 point in Datafolha and in Ipespe/Abrapel and rises from 3 to 4 points in Real Time Big Data and from 1.5 to 2.7 points in Veritá; in Vox Brasil, Lula's lead falls from 1.8 to 1.1 points. In valid votes, Datafolha goes from 51% to 49% for Flávio Bolsonaro to a tie at 50%. Of the forty-three national polls conducted after the first round, thirty-nine put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead; the three by Vox Brasil put Lula ahead, and the PoderData/Aya poll of October 16 measured a tie in valid votes. The poll side of the panel's graph is now Veritá, the largest sample of the day.

Government. In Datafolha, 49% approve of the Lula government and 48% disapprove, the first time since July with approval numerically ahead, and 94% say they are fully decided on their vote, according to G1. In Ipespe/Abrapel, 47% disapprove and 45% approve, according to CNN Brasil.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 24/Oct and 25/Oct. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 13 national polls in the window; 19 records from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The secrecy. On October 23, the two campaigns delivered to the TSE the authorizations to lift their secrecy, but did not release the data, according to UOL and O Globo. In a decision of October 22, Justice André Mendonça wrote that the candidates may release their own data and that it is not up to the Electoral Court to define what each one releases, according to G1 and Gazeta do Povo. Lula's campaign accuses Flávio Bolsonaro's of not lifting its secrecy after the agreement, according to Gazeta do Povo.

The Exército do Lula channel. On October 23, TSE Justice Floriano de Azevedo Marques ruled that only the full court can suspend the Exército do Lula channel on WhatsApp, in a preventive writ filed by Lula's campaign, according to Agência Brasil and Folha de S.Paulo. In a note, the TSE said it had not ordered any WhatsApp channel taken down, and the court's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, asked the platforms for equal treatment of the two candidacies, according to Agência Brasil and G1.

Meta and X. On the night of October 22, the electoral inspector general, Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, gave Meta and X 24 hours to explain their rules for distributing political content, ads and the use of artificial intelligence, in a case by Lula's coalition that seeks to strip Flávio Bolsonaro's ticket of its registration for abuse of economic power and misuse of the media, according to Gazeta do Povo and CartaCapital. The inspector general noted that accepting the case does not prejudge the facts.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Of the seven new national polls, five put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, Vox Brasil puts Lula ahead and Datafolha measures a tie in valid votes, and thirty-nine of the forty-three conducted after the vote put him in front.
2. The winner contract takes Flávio Bolsonaro from 77.70% to 76.50%, and the gap goes from 55.20pp to 53.00pp.
3. Only the full TSE can suspend the Exército do Lula channel, according to a decision by Justice Floriano de Azevedo Marques on October 23.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Gazeta do Povo · Mendonça diz que Lula e Flávio podem abrir sigilos sem aval do TSE
• Folha de S.Paulo · Ministro do TSE atende a campanha do PT e impede suspensão de canal 'Exército do Lula' às vésperas da eleição
• G1 · TSE nega ter mandado tirar canais políticos no WhatsApp do ar e pede isonomia nas plataformas
• Gazeta do Povo · Corregedor do TSE manda Meta e X explicarem em 24h suposto favorecimento a Flávio

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro e Lula empatam com 50% dos votos válidos cada um
• JOTA Info · Flávio Bolsonaro e Lula estão empatados com 50% dos votos válidos cada um, diz Datafolha
• CNN Brasil · Vox: Lula tem 50,6% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Flávio, 49,4%
• Exame · Pesquisa Ipespe: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 50,5% e Lula, 49,5%, dos votos válidos
• Congresso em Foco · Flávio tem 52% e Lula, 48%, em nova pesquisa Real Time Big Data
• R7 · Veritá: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 51,3% dos votos válidos, e Lula, 48,7% no 2º turno
• Rádio Corredor · DataTrends: Flávio tem 51,9% contra 48,1% de Lula nos votos válidos e amplia vantagem a 2 dias do 2º turno
• CNN Brasil · Alfa: Flávio tem 52% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 48%
• JOTA Info · Ipespe/Abrapel mostra Lula em alta e Flávio Bolsonaro em queda
• G1 · Datafolha: 49% aprovam governo Lula, e 48% desaprovam
• CNN Brasil · Ipespe/Abrapel: Lula é desaprovado por 47%; aprovação é de 45%
• UOL Notícias · Lula e Flávio entregam permissões para abrir sigilo, mas não divulgam dados
• O Globo · Flávio e Lula abriram o sigilo? Candidatos entregam autorização de quebra de dados bancários
• G1 · Mendonça diz que Lula e Flávio podem disponibilizar sigilos por conta própria e não cabe ao TSE definir divulgação
• Gazeta do Povo · Campanha de Lula acusa Flávio Bolsonaro de não abrir sigilos após acordo no TSE
• Agência Brasil · Ministro do TSE proíbe suspensão do canal Exército do Lula
• CartaCapital · Em ação de Lula, TSE manda Meta e X explicarem distribuição de conteúdo político

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 23 19:10 BRT and reading of the total volume and the inflation book at 19:16 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).