October 22, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap narrows by 2.00 points. In the confirmed reading of October 22 at 17:56 BRT, the winner contract pays 77.70% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 24.89M) and 22.50% for Lula (USD 28.54M). Against the confirmed reading of October 21 at 18:28 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 1.00pp and Lula rises 1.00pp; since the pair's sum stays at 100.20, the normalized move equals the raw one. The gap goes from 57.20pp to 55.20pp. The total volume accumulated in the presidential book is USD 191.89M, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.30% (USD 0.10M), 0.25pp below the reading of October 21. In the 2026 inflation contract, in the 18:16 BRT reading against the one of October 21 at 18:37 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% range goes from 71.20% to 70.70% (USD 28 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% range from 14.60% to 14.00% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% range from 11.30% to 11.70% (USD 33 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Three new national polls. PoderData/Aya, with 4,000 telephone interviews from October 19 to 21, gives 49% to Flávio Bolsonaro and 48% to Lula in total votes and 51% to 49% in valid votes. Indexa/Broadcast, with 2,000 telephone interviews on October 20 and 21, gives 45.2% to 44.1% in total votes and 50.6% to 49.4% in valid votes. Gerp, released on the night of October 21, with 2,400 telephone interviews, gives 50% to 45% in total votes and 53% to 47% in valid votes.

Round against round. Against each pollster's previous round, the distance in Flávio Bolsonaro's favor in total votes falls from 3 to 1 point in PoderData/Aya and from 1.5 to 1.1 points in Indexa/Broadcast; in valid votes, it rises from 4 to 6 points in Gerp. In PoderData/Aya, 47% would never vote for Lula and 45% would never vote for Flávio Bolsonaro. Of the thirty-six national polls conducted after the first round, thirty-three put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead; the two Vox Brasil polls put Lula ahead, and PoderData/Aya of October 16 measured a tie in valid votes. The poll side of the panel's chart is now PoderData/Aya, the largest sample of the day. The Datafolha poll with fieldwork from October 20 to 22 has its release registered with the TSE for October 22.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 23/Oct and 25/Oct. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 18 national polls in the window; 29 records from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 1 record marked as national was left out because the record itself does not support the release date or the scope. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The secrecy. On October 22, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro signed at the TSE a document authorizing the lifting of their bank, tax and phone secrecy, according to Valor and Folha de S.Paulo, and the release of the documents is up to Justice André Mendonça, according to Congresso em Foco. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign says it will only hand over his data after analyzing Lula's, according to JOTA and Exame, and assigned Deltan Dallagnol to that analysis, according to Valor.

The government messages. Justice Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, the TSE's inspector general, denied in an injunction ruling the request by Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign to suspend government messages sent via WhatsApp and Gov.br, among them notices about Bolsa Família and the INSS proof-of-life check, considering them of apparently informative content, according to CartaCapital and G1. The justice gave the parties five days to respond.

Meta and the debate. The TSE president, Kassio Nunes Marques, gave Meta 24 hours to submit a detailed report on coordinated actions in the Exército do Lula channel, according to Folha de S.Paulo and Valor. Globo's debate, the last before the vote, is scheduled for the night of October 23, with limits on the candidates' movement in the studio, according to Folha de S.Paulo and CartaCapital.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The three new national polls put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 1 to 5 points in total votes, and thirty-three of the thirty-six conducted after the vote put him in front.
2. The winner contract takes Flávio Bolsonaro from 78.70% to 77.70%, and the gap goes from 57.20pp to 55.20pp.
3. The candidates signed at the TSE the document to lift their secrecy, and the release depends on a decision by Justice André Mendonça.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 · Corregedor do TSE nega pedido de Flávio Bolsonaro para suspender mensagens do governo
• Folha de S.Paulo · Kassio manda Meta apresentar em 24 horas relatório detalhado sobre ações do 'Exército do Lula'
• Folha de S.Paulo · Debate da Globo entre Lula e Flávio terá quatro blocos e restrição a movimentação; veja regras

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• CNN Brasil · PoderData/AYA: Flávio tem 51% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 49%
• SBT News · PoderData/Aya: Flávio tem 51% dos votos válidos; Lula, 49%
• Estadão · Indexa/Broadcast: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 45,2% ante 44,1% de Lula no 2º turno, em empate técnico
• Gazeta do Povo · Os números da pesquisa Indexa/Broadcast para presidente no 2º turno a 3 dias da eleição
• Exame · Pesquisa Gerp: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 53% e Lula, 47%, no 2º turno
• Exame · Pesquisa para presidente PoderData/Aya: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 51% e Lula, 49%; diferença cai para 2 pontos
• JOTA Info · Flávio Bolsonaro tem 50,6% dos válidos enquanto Lula tem 49,4%, diz pesquisa Indexa/Broadcast
• Valor Econômico · Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro assinam termo autorizando abertura de sigilos bancário, fiscal e telefônico
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro aceita quebra de sigilo proposta por Lula, e candidatos assinam acordo no TSE
• Congresso em Foco · Lula e Flávio autorizam quebra de sigilo; decisão cabe a Mendonça
• JOTA Info · Campanhas concordam em abrir sigilos, mas Flávio condiciona entrega a análise de dados de Lula
• Exame · Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro assinam acordo para abrir sigilos, mas divergem sobre entrega dos dados
• Valor Econômico · Flávio Bolsonaro escala Dallagnol para analisar documentos de quebra de sigilo de Lula
• CartaCapital · TSE nega pedido de Flávio Bolsonaro para barrar mensagens do governo Lula
• Valor Econômico · Nunes Marques dá 24 horas para Meta apresentar relatório sobre 'Exército do Lula'
• CartaCapital · ‘TV Globo’ limita circulação de Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro em debate

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 22 17:56 BRT and reading of the total volume and the inflation book at 18:16 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).