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United StatesThis is the last issue of the US series, and the first in which the contracts have a known outcome. Democrats won control of the House and the Senate, and the three binary contracts in this brief settled on November 4: Senate control and the election happening as scheduled that morning, House control at 13:34 UTC. Against the Friday, October 30 close, which is this series' anchor, Democratic control of the House went from 93.50% to 100%, and of the Senate from 70.50% to 100%. What the week shows, before the outcome, is the Senate's path. Between the Friday close and the eve of the vote, with no vote counted, the Democratic Senate control binary rose 6.00pp: 71.50% in the November 1 certified reading, 73.50% at 18:30 UTC on November 2, 75.50% at 20:00 and 76.50% at 21:30 UTC, the value of the eve certified reading at 22:06 UTC. On election day it moved between 74.50% and 77.50%, its highest value before the count, and at 23:00 UTC on November 3 it stood at 75.50%. From there it covered in hours what it had not covered in weeks: 88.50% at midnight UTC, 98.30% at 01:30, 99.80% at 04:30 and 100% at 09:00 UTC on November 4. The House contract held at 94.50% from the eve until 20:00 UTC on election day, then rose to 96.50% at 23:30, 98.20% at 00:30 and 99.80% at 02:00 UTC. Both seat-band books confirm the outcome by their shape. In the Senate book, the band of 47 Republican seats or fewer, which settled yes, was the most expensive in the book at the October 30 close, with 47.88% of the mass, and on the eve, with 55.13%. In the House book, the band of fewer than 190 Republican seats, which also settled yes, was the most expensive in the book on October 30, with 40.62%. One outcome does not grade a price: 76.50% on the eve left roughly one chance in four for the other side, and a single election cannot say whether that was too much or too little. What remains is the dated record, written before the vote, that anyone can check.
1.Executive Summary
The three numbers above are still of different kinds, even with two of them settled. The first two are contract prices that ended at 100%, the settlement value of an outcome that happened. The third is an arithmetic average of published polls, and it measures something else: a lead in points of national House vote. This issue covers the week of November 2 to 6, with the delta anchored on the prior Friday close, October 30, and shows each one beside the eve record, without subtracting one from the other.
2.Why this brief does not subtract the market from the poll, even after the vote
After the vote, the desk question changes shape: the market paid 94.50% for Democratic control of the House on the eve, the polling average gave Democrats a lead of 7.66 points, and the Democrats won. Who was more right? The answer is still that the question has no numerical answer, and now for three reasons. The unit reason holds as before. The second is that one outcome does not grade a probability. The third is that the poll measures votes, and the national House vote is still being counted.
Subtracting 7.66 from 94.50, or comparing either of them with the 100 of settlement, would produce numbers with no unit. The comparison that has a unit is a different one and comes later: the polling average against the national House vote, both in points of vote, once the count is certified. Until then, this brief does not set the average beside a partial count or an outlet's projection.
What can be read this week, and it is not a subtraction either, is how the two books of the SAME market on the Senate ended. The control binary and the distribution of Republican seat bands settled on the same side. In the NBC News count on November 9, Democrats have 54 projected seats and Republicans 44, with Alaska and Mississippi still unprojected and the Democratic candidate ahead in both. If both went Republican, they would reach 46, still inside the band of 47 or fewer, which is why that band has already settled yes. In the House, NBC News has 252 seats projected for Democrats and 164 for Republicans, with 19 still to project: even if all of them went Republican, they would stand at 183, below 190.
3.Last issue's three scenarios, read against the outcome
Last issue read three scenarios in the prices the market published, and this issue sets them beside the outcome. They were implied probability, and not this house's forecast, and the reading below grades none of them: it says what each price showed at the October 30 close and on the eve, and how each contract settled. The Senate seat bands are cited as SHARE OF THE BOOK, normalized by the sum at each edge: 101.30% on October 30 and 104.30% on November 2, both inside the 95% to 105% gate.
The Democratic Senate control binary closed October 30 at 70.50%, the eve at 76.50%, and settled yes on the morning of November 4. In the seat distribution, the band of 47 Republican seats or fewer went from 47.88% of the book's mass on October 30 to 55.13% on the eve, with 57.50% as the raw price, and settled yes. The 48 and 49 seat bands, the narrow Democratic outcomes, held 23.69% of the mass on October 30 and 23.97% on the eve, and settled no. Last issue described the book as having moved mass from the narrow bands to the widest one, and the widest one is where it ended. The whole book traded USD 7.19M up to settlement, and the winning band alone, USD 1.44M.
The Republican Senate control binary closed October 30 at 29.50%, the eve at 23.50%, and settled no, with USD 14.33M traded on the outcome. In the seat distribution, the share of the bands of 50 Republican seats or more, the Republican majority with the Vice President's tie-break, went from 28.43% of the mass on October 30 to 20.90% on the eve. A 23.50% price is not wrong because the outcome did not happen: a price of that size says the outcome fails to happen about three times in four.
The contract on the election happening as scheduled closed October 30 at 99.50%, the eve at 99.70%, and settled yes on the morning of November 4, with USD 1.46M traded, the lowest volume of the five binary contracts in this brief. The week's low was 99.10%, on October 30 at 07:00 UTC, and the complementary outcome, the election not happening as scheduled, stood at 0.30% on the eve.
4.Indicator Grid
| Contract | Current | Δ week | Vol USD acc. | Implied reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House, Democratic control | 100% (settled) | +6.50pp | USD 37.37M | It closed October 30 at 93.50% and spent the weekend and the eve at 94.50%. On election day it held that value until 20:00 UTC, rose to 96.50% at 23:30, 98.20% at 00:30 and 99.80% at 02:00 UTC on November 4, and settled yes at 13:34 UTC. It took in USD 19.99M of new money since the October 30 close. |
| House, Republican control | 0% (settled) | -6.50pp | USD 25.93M | The mirror of the Democratic side: 6.50% on October 30, 5.50% on the eve, 4.50% at 23:30 UTC on election day, and settlement no. It took in USD 10.73M of new money since October 30, and the whole House book, USD 30.72M. |
| Senate, Democratic control | 100% (settled) | +29.50pp | USD 17.13M | From 70.50% on October 30 to 76.50% on the eve, with no vote counted. On election day, between 74.50% and 77.50%. From 23:00 UTC on November 3 to 09:00 UTC on November 4, from 75.50% to 100%, with 88.50% at midnight and 98.30% at 01:30 UTC. It took in USD 10.27M of new money since October 30. |
| Senate, Republican control | 0% (settled) | -29.50pp | USD 14.33M | From 29.50% on October 30 to 23.50% on the eve, with a low of 21.50% at 12:00 UTC on election day. At midnight UTC on November 4 it stood at 11.50%, at 01:30 at 2.20%, and settled no. It took in USD 8.24M of new money since October 30, and the whole Senate book, USD 18.51M. |
| Election happens as scheduled | 100% (settled) | +0.50pp | USD 1.46M | Between 99.10% and 99.80% from October 30 to election day, with 99.70% on the eve. It settled yes on the morning of November 4. It took in USD 0.27M of new money since October 30. |
| Republican Senate seats, 11-band distribution | 47 or fewer (settled) | from 47.88% of the mass on October 30 | USD 7.19M | The band of 47 Republican seats or fewer was the most expensive in the book on October 30 and on the eve, when it held 55.13% of the mass in a book summing 104.30%. It settled yes and the other ten bands settled no. In the November 9 count, Republicans have 44 projected seats and at most 46. |
5.Liquidity and market structure
6.Electoral calendar after the vote
| Date | Sample | Why it matters | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, Tuesday | Midterm election day | 435 House seats and one third of the Senate | The date that settled the contracts. The Senate binary stood at 75.50% at 23:00 UTC and at 88.50% at midnight UTC, the hour the first polls close at 7 p.m. New York time; the House binary stood at 94.50% at 20:00 UTC and at 96.50% at 23:30 UTC. |
| Nov 4, Wednesday | The three binary contracts settle for the Democrats and for the schedule | 5 contracts, USD 96.22M | Senate and schedule settled on the morning of November 4, House at 13:34 UTC. Both seat-band books also settled, once the count made any other band impossible. |
| Nov 9, Monday | Mississippi: Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by more than 2,500 votes | 1 state Senate race | County clerks have until Friday, November 13, to certify results. The race changes neither Senate control nor the seat book's band, which have already settled. |
| Nov 9, Monday | Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola remains ahead of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, and the count goes on | 1 state Senate race | As in Mississippi, the result sets the size of the Democratic majority, between 54 and 56 seats, and not control. |
| Nov 9, Monday | House: 19 races still unprojected, several in California | 19 of 435 seats | NBC News has 252 seats projected for Democrats and 164 for Republicans. The remaining 19 set the size of the majority, and not control. |
| Jan 3, 2027, Sunday | The new Congress convenes | House and Senate | The date the Constitution sets, unless changed by law, for the Congress elected on November 3 to assemble. Until then the states certify their results, and it is the certified count that allows the comparison between the polling average and the vote. |
The grid above has two dates that settled contracts, November 3 and 4, and four that settle none. The races still open set the SIZE of the majorities, and none of them can change the outcome of the contracts this brief read.
7.What is still left to measure
- The certified national House vote, beside the polling average It is the only comparison in this series that has a unit: both numbers in points of vote. The eve average was D+7.66 and the election-day average D+7.73. It will be made against the count certified by the states, and not against an outlet's projection or a partial count.
- Mississippi and Alaska, the two unprojected Senate races In the November 9 count, the Democrat is ahead in both. They decide whether the Democratic Senate majority lands at 54, 55 or 56 seats. The control contracts and the Senate seat book have already settled, and no outcome in either race changes them.
- The 19 House seats still to project They set the size of the Democratic majority, now at 252 projected seats against 218 needed. The House seat-band book has already settled in the band of fewer than 190 Republican seats, and the highest possible Republican total is 183.
8.Methodology
This issue closes the weekly US series. Settlement prices are the ones the market itself published when closing each contract, and the capture guard, which requires two readings 8 minutes apart agreeing within 0.20pp, recognized the three watched books as settled in both readings of November 9, at 23:46 and 23:54 UTC. The eve record is the certified reading of November 2 at 22:06 UTC. Each contract's series is read from the database backup and never from the history route, because that route caps the window at 90 days and on the Senate contract that would hide the start of the series, which is April 14. Closes are the last recorded point of each day, and highs and lows are intraday. The week's delta is anchored on the prior Friday close, October 30, which is this series' convention, and the tool that computes it was required to reproduce the numbers published in the previous issue before being used here. For settled contracts, the final value of the delta is the settlement price, 100% or 0%. A band distribution is cited only when the book's sum falls between 95% and 105% at the edges used, and it is cited as share of the book, normalized by the sum at that edge: the Senate seat book summed 101.30% on October 30 and 104.30% on the eve; the House book summed 99.70% on October 30, and so it is cited only at that edge. The generic ballot average is a simple arithmetic mean, unweighted, over a 30-day window that closes on election day, with one round per firm per wave by the hierarchy likely voters, registered voters, adults, and with waves published under a different instrument, such as the preference for which party should control Congress or the ballot with the names of the district's candidates, kept out of the calculation and declared in the firm's own wording. The seat count cited is NBC News's on November 9, with Associated Press data, and it is a projection, not a certified result. Book depth is not cited in this brief, by an editorial decision of May 2026.
9.Additional reading · macro coverage
The items below are the outlets and markets cited in the sections above, with the address of the story or page itself. Items the collection reached only through the aggregator were dropped from this list, because the aggregator's address does not point to the outlet.
- NBC News, House results · Projected seat count by party, with Associated Press data, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/house-results
- NBC News, Senate results · Senate seat count and unprojected races, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/senate-results
- NPR, Nov 9 · The House and Senate races still unprojected, and when they should be known, www.npr.org/2026/11/09/nx-s1-6032755/some-house-and-senate-races-remain-uncalled-what-we-know
- WLBT, Nov 9 · Colom leads Hyde-Smith by more than 2,500 votes in Mississippi, with county certification due Friday, www.wlbt.com/2026/11/09/colom-leads-hyde-smith-by-more-than-2500-votes-mississippi-awaits-final-senate-result/
- Polymarket, House control · Settled contract: which party controls the House in 2026, polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026
- Polymarket, Senate control · Settled contract: which party controls the Senate in 2026, polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
- Polymarket, Republican Senate seats · 11-band book, settled in the band of 47 seats or fewer, polymarket.com/event/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927
- Polymarket, Republican House seats · 10-band book, settled in the band of fewer than 190 seats, polymarket.com/event/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections
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