Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

The day was marked by volatility at the top. On Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro recovered part of recent losses and rose 2.20pp to 29.35% (USD 6.54M accumulated volume), while Lula remained stable at 40.50% (USD 6.20M). This narrowed the Lula × Flávio gap from +13.35pp to +11.15pp in 24 hours. This is the second short-term rally for Flávio, and no event from the news cycle directly explains it, pointing to a technical recovery reading rather than an isolated news trigger.

In the third way, all candidates declined. Renan Santos fell to 17.15% (USD 6.74M, ↓0.40pp), but maintained third place in the winner market. Camilo Santana dropped to 3.75% (USD 3.23M, ↓0.10pp) and remained in fourth, ahead of Haddad at 2.85% (USD 5.62M, ↓0.10pp). Zema recovered from the previous day's spike and returned to 1.95% (USD 3.53M, ↓0.25pp), and Caiado stood at 1.65% (USD 3.92M, ↓0.10pp), at the floor.

In position markets, Flávio remains the clear leader for second place at 62.50% (USD 61k, ↓1.00pp), and Renan is the favorite to finish third in the first round at 43.50% (USD 76k, ↓2.00pp), ahead of Zema (22%) and Caiado (14.50%) in this specific contract.

In institutional and macro markets, the impeachment of an STF minister contract before 2027 fell to 3.55% (USD 81k, ↓1.90pp), the lowest recent level. In the Senate, PL rose to 73.50% (USD 243k, ↑1.00pp) in the probability of having the largest caucus. And for 2026 annual inflation, the 5.50% to 5.99% range leads pricing at 26.75%, followed by the 6.00% to 6.49% range at 22.30%.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

No new national survey with confirmed numbers was published. The reference remains Vox Brasil from June 5 (n=2.100, protocol BR-08016/2026), which shows Lula 42.1% × Flávio 33.6% in the first round (gap +8.5pp) and Lula 47.8% × 41.3% in the second, with Lula in a Empate técnico with Caiado and Zema. Coverage mentioned a Nexus/BTG Pactual survey, presented as the first after the tariff threat, but without numbers confirmed by primary source, which is why AFOS does not incorporate it into the dashboard.

Quaest is treated as imminent for Wednesday, June 10, and part of coverage projects it will assess the effect of Trump's tariff threat and the wear on Flávio and Lula. AFOS notes the survey's existence but does not assign results to a poll that has not yet been released.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication scheduled between June 10 and June 16. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. All state-level scope; no national surveys in the window. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
June 10	Quaest	2,004	state	TSE registration	0.8
June 11	Real Time Big Data	1,600	state	TSE registration	0.7
June 11	Alfa	1,400	state	TSE registration	0.6
June 12	Numen Data	2,400	state	TSE registration	0.7
June 12	Vox Brasil	1,200	state	TSE registration	0.6

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in the window). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The institutional fact of the day was the escalation of the AtlasIntel poll suspension. The injunction was signed on June 8 by TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques, responding to a request from Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged voter inducement, and suspended a survey from May 19 (BR-06939/2026) that showed a decline for the pre-candidate. On June 9, the research companies association classified the decision as misguided and a dangerous precedent, according to Valor. Part of the TSE criticizes the measure and there is an interpretation that the case could reach the STF, according to Estadão, while another faction attempts a middle ground, according to Folha, and there is discussion about postponing the outcome of the ruling. CNN Brasil summarized the episode as a case that transforms polling methodology into electoral battle.

In the Master case, Daniel Vorcaro presented a second plea bargain proposal that cites Ciro Nogueira and the film "Dark Horse", according to G1. According to the coverage, the Federal Police assess rejecting the proposal again for contradicting evidence already obtained, and the decision on its approval falls to minister André Mendonça, rapporteur for the case at the STF, who days earlier had revoked precautionary measures (O Globo, June 8). The episode also postpones the definition of Flávio's running mate, according to AJN1.

On the right wing, two movements. Flávio structures an economic team, with Daniella Marques pointed as his main economic adviser, according to Valor, cited for the role of "Posto Ipiranga" (also O Globo, June 9). At the same time, the field shows friction: Caiado publicly demanded that Flávio explain his connection to Vorcaro, while Zema stated that he would support Flávio even after the involvement with the banker, according to Congresso em Foco. In government, the underlying driver remains the tariff hike, with Lula on the offensive to remove the threat of new tariffs from Trump's mind (Folha).

4. Day's divergences

Market × survey (third way): the largest distance on the dashboard persists. Renan is third in the winner's market (17.15%) and favored for third place in the 1º turno (43.50%), but appears at around 6% in surveys and is not highlighted by Vox in the main breakdown. Caiado is the opposite: leads the third way in surveys (6.9% in Vox on June 5) and sits at 1.65% in the market. The Quaest on Wednesday may be the first national test of this distance.

Market × narrative (Flávio rebound): the market reopened part of the gap, with Flávio rising 2.20pp without a window event explaining the move. The reading is technical, recovery after a series of declines, not a response to a specific fact of the day. Even with the uptick, the gap (+11.15pp) remains wider than the 1º turno of the reference survey (+8.5pp in Vox).

Survey × transparency (AtlasIntel suspension): AFOS Analytics registers the dispute over the TSE injunction as an institutional fact, not as endorsement or critique of the merits. The decision suspends the release of a survey from May 19, still pending full court referral and now dividing the court itself. The episode adds a layer of dispute over survey transparency just ahead of Quaest.

In summary

Flávio recovered part of recent losses and rose 2.20pp to 29.35%, narrowing the gap to Lula (stable at 40.50%) from +13.35 to +11.15pp; the move has no window event to explain it and is read as technical recovery, not as news trigger.
No new national survey with numbers was released: Vox on June 5 remains as reference (+8.5pp in the 1º turno) and Quaest is expected for Wednesday, June 10. The AtlasIntel survey suspension by TSE escalated, with the pollsters' association calling it a dangerous precedent and part of the court discussing postponing or reviewing the case.
The third way divergence remains the largest on the dashboard: Renan is favored for third place (43.50%) against around 6% in surveys, while Caiado does 6.9% in Vox against 1.65% in the market. The impeachment contract for STF minister fell to 3.55%, and PL rose to 73.50% in the race for the largest Senate caucus.—

Sources Consulted

Articles with direct links to the news

Secondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article)

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 9 19:13 BRT), TSE registry (official election surveys).

June 9, 2026