Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

The day saw clear movement at the top, driven by polling. On Polymarket, where the presidential market accumulates around USD 97 million in bets, Lula jumped 4.00pp and reached 44.50% (USD 6.26M accumulated volume), while Flávio Bolsonaro fell 0.70pp to 28.65% (USD 6.55M). With this, the Lula × Flávio gap widened from +11.15pp to +15.85pp in 24 hours. The movement came in the wake of the release of the Genial/Quaest national poll, and the market reacted in line with the polling, expanding the advantage it was already pricing in.

In the third way, the names remained low and mixed. Renan Santos fell to 16.65% (USD 6.79M, ↓0.50pp) in the winner market, but held third place. Camilo Santana dropped to 3.15% (USD 3.25M, ↓0.60pp) and remained in fourth place, ahead of Haddad, at 2.85% (USD 5.63M, stable). Caiado rose marginally to 1.75% (USD 3.94M, ↑0.10pp) and Zema fell to 1.85% (USD 3.55M, ↓0.10pp), both at the floor.

In position markets, Flávio reinforced his isolated lead in second place at 65.00% (USD 61k, ↑2.50pp), which shows a market that sees him comfortable in the runoff spot even if an unlikely winner. The highlight of the day was Renan, who surged to 52.00% (USD 76k, ↑8.50pp) in the probability of finishing third in the first round, becoming the isolated favorite of that contract, ahead of Zema (17.50%, USD 13k) and Caiado (14.00%, USD 21k).

In institutional and macro markets, the impeachment of STF justice contract before 2027 fell to 2.30% (USD 81k, ↓1.25pp), at the lowest recent level. In the Senate, PL was at 73.00% (USD 243k, ↓0.50pp) in the probability of having the largest caucus. And in 2026 annual inflation, the 5.50% to 5.99% range leads pricing at 27.00%, closely followed by the 4.00% to 4.49% range at 26.75%, and the 6.00% to 6.49% range at 22.45%.

2. What the polling institutes registered

The poll that had been treated as imminent was released. The Genial/Quaest national, released on June 10 (n=2.004, field June 5-8, 2-point margin, protocol BR-07661/2026), gave Lula 39% × Flávio 29% in the first round (gap +10pp) and Lula 44% × Flávio 38% in the runoff (gap +6pp), with Lula winning all tested scenarios. It is the first Tier 1 national snapshot since Vox Brasil on June 5. The survey also showed government approval improving to 47%, against 48% disapproval, and Lula opening 13 points of advantage among independent voters in the runoff, according to G1.

The third way appeared tangled and low in the survey: Renan Santos and Caiado with 3%, Aécio Neves and Zema with 2% each, all far from Flávio in the dispute for the anti-Lula vote. On the same day, a counterpoint: the Gerp poll gave Flávio 35% × Lula 34% in the first round, according to Exame, a number that inverts leadership and falls outside the curve of all Tier 1 polls in the cycle. AFOS registers the contrast, without treating the outlier as a trend.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication planned between June 11-17. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. All state-level scope; none national in the window. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
June 11	Real Time Big Data	1,600	state	BR-02795/2026	0.8
June 11	Alfa	1,400	state	BR-03496/2026	0.6
June 12	Numen Data	2,400	state	BR-01992/2026	0.7
June 14	Perfil	1,800	state	BR-05760/2026	0.6
June 15	AtlasIntel	1,200	state	BR-01326/2026	0.8
June 15	Nexus	2,000	state	BR-06645/2026	0.7
June 15	Doxa	2,000	state	BR-03857/2026	0.7

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in the window). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

Press coverage for the day centered on Quaest. In the first round, CNN Brasil reported Lula at 39% and Flávio at 29%, and Poder360 summarized the runoff as Lula 44% × Flávio 38%. The predominant reading was a warning for the opposition: Estadão treated the result as a yellow flag not only for Flávio, but for the entire opposition, while G1, in Gerson Camarotti's column, spoke of a yellow flag in Flávio's campaign.

The survey also brought analysis on the effect of the Master case. According to G1, 12% of voters say that Flávio's relationship with Daniel Vorcaro reduces their willingness to vote for him, data that coverage linked to the government's success in tying the senator to the banker and Trump's tariff threats. On the institutional front, the Master case continued to develop: Vorcaro's plea deal proposals cited a minister from the Lula government, according to Pleno.News.

At the TSE, the outcome of the AtlasIntel survey suspension was postponed. According to BBC News Brasil, the court postponed the decision on maintaining the suspension and explained what is under judgment, with the plenary still to decide whether to maintain the measure relating to the presidential position, according to a note from the TSE itself.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × survey (third way): the largest distance on the dashboard gained measurement. Quaest nailed Renan Santos at 3% in the 1º turno, bunched with Caiado, Aécio and Zema and far from Flávio in the anti-Lula race, according to G1, while in the winner market he remains at 16.65% and jumped to 52.00% in the third place contract. The distance between the market (16.65%) and the survey (3%) reaches approximately 13.65pp, now the largest and the first measured by a national Tier 1 print. The signal to monitor is whether the next Tier 1 surveys confirm the 3% level.

Survey × survey (Quaest × Gerp): on the same day, two surveys told opposite stories in the 1º turno. Quaest gave Lula 39% × Flávio 29%, according to CartaCapital, and Gerp gave Flávio 35% × Lula 34%, reversing the lead. AFOS Analytics treats Gerp as an outlier, outside the curve of all Tier 1 surveys in the cycle, but registers the contrast to avoid masking the dispersion between institutes.

Market × survey (margin of favoritism): the market reacted to Quaest by opening the gap to +15.85pp, a wider number than the 1º turno (+10pp) and the 2º turno (+6pp) of the survey itself. In other words, Polymarket prices Lula's favoritism as stronger than what Quaest measures, movement in the same direction, but with greater intensity.

In summary

The Genial/Quaest national survey came out and moved the market: it gave Lula 39% × 29% in the 1º turno and 44% × 38% in the 2º turno, with government approval improving to 47% × 48%. Polymarket reacted in the direction of the survey, with Lula jumping 4.00pp to 44.50% and the gap to Flávio (28.65%) opening from +11.15 to +15.85pp.
The third way appeared bunched and low in Quaest (Renan and Caiado at 3%, Aécio and Zema at 2%), and an isolated counterpoint emerged in Gerp, which gave Flávio 35% × Lula 34% in the 1º turno, outside the curve of other Tier 1 surveys. The TSE plenary postponed the decision on maintaining the suspension of the AtlasIntel survey.
The divergence of the third way became the largest and measured on the dashboard: Renan has 16.65% in the winner market and jumped to 52.00% in the third place contract, against 3% in Quaest. The impeachment contract for STF minister declined to 2.30% and PL remained at 73.00% in the race for the largest Senate caucus.

🌎 Divergence beyond Brazil

The same reading of this edition, as the prediction market distances itself from surveys, AFOS Analytics now applies to two Latin American elections already tabulated and navigable on the platform: Peru and Colombia. In Peru, the market made Rafael López Aliaga the favorite to win for months, pricing him between 40% and 55%, yet he finished third and missed the runoff: a case in which the market got it wrong. In Colombia, the opposite: the market gave Abelardo de la Espriella a 43.5% chance of victory while surveys gave him 31.6% of votes, and he won the 1º turno with 43.7%, a case in which the market saw what the survey underestimated. It is the same principle that drives the Brazilian dashboard: wherever there is an election, there is a signal. The complete datasets are open, under CC BY 4.0 license, on Hugging Face (Peru and Colombia).

Sources Consulted

Articles with direct news link

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 10 19:59 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).

June 10, 2026