June 8, 2026

1. Prediction market

On June 8, the market moved sideways. In the presidential market on Polymarket, Lula remained stable at 40.50% (vol USD 6.18M accumulated) and Flávio Bolsonaro gave back 0.10pp to 27.15% (vol USD 6.51M). As a result, the gap between the two stood at +13.35pp (↑0.10pp versus June 7), at the top of the recent cycle. The marginal move came from Flávio's side, and there is no event within the window that justifies a price reversal: the reading is technical digestion at an already elevated level for Lula.

In the third way and among secondary candidates, Renan Santos rose 0.20pp in the winner market to 17.55% (vol USD 6.68M), in third place. Camilo Santana held fourth place for president with 3.85% (↑0.10pp), ahead of Fernando Haddad, who gave back 0.15pp to 2.95% (vol USD 5.60M), and Romeu Zema, who broke a losing streak and rose 0.15pp to 2.20% (vol USD 3.51M). Ronaldo Caiado remained stable at the floor at 1.75% (vol USD 3.90M). Camilo's jump from previous days continues without clear news reading and with relatively low volume, a sign of speculative positioning with low conviction that AFOS registers as a point to monitor, not as a trend.

In placement markets, Flávio maintained an isolated lead for second place in the 1º turno with 63.50% (vol USD 61k), while Renan appears in second in that same market at 17.00%. In the third place market, Renan is the favorite with 45.50% (↑0.50pp, vol USD 79k), ahead of Zema and Caiado. These are three distinct questions: who wins, who finishes in second, and who finishes in third in the 1º turno.

In institutional and macro contracts, impeachment of some STF minister before 2027 ticked up 0.30pp to 5.45% (vol USD 79k), a low level. In the Senate, the PL remains widely favored to hold the largest caucus at 72.50% (vol USD 243k). For 2026 inflation, the modal band continues to be 5.00% to 5.49%, but the sum of bands at 6.00% or higher accounts for about half the market, a sign that the inflation tail remains priced in. In aggregate, the presidential market totals about USD 97M in accumulated volume, reinforcing that this is real money in play, not a simple poll.

2. What polling institutes registered

No new national survey on June 8. The reference remains Vox Brasil from June 5 (n=2.100, protocol BR-08016/2026), which showed in the 1º turno Lula at 42.1% and Flávio at 33.6% (gap of +8.5pp), and in the 2º turno Lula 47.8% against Flávio 41.3%, with Lula in Empate técnico with Caiado and Zema. Ingestion of the TSE registry did not bring new published national surveys; the recent flow is predominantly state-level.

The story of the day, however, was about the polls themselves. The president of the TSE, minister Kassio Nunes Marques, suspended in a preliminary ruling the release of an AtlasIntel survey (protocol BR-06939/2026, originally published on May 19), responding to a request from the PL and senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The decision points to alleged voter inducement: according to the court, the questionnaire included, after voting intention questions, an audio of dialogue between Flávio and Daniel Vorcaro, and 27 other AtlasIntel surveys did not contain similar questions or broadcast audio. The institute was ordered to submit technical documentation on methodology, and the decision, preliminary, will be submitted to the full court's referral. The press treats the next Quaest round as imminent for Wednesday, June 10, also evaluating Flávio, Trump, and tariffs, but the survey has not yet been published.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at the TSE with planned publication between June 9 and 12. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication: institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample equal to or greater than 1,000. The registry classifies all 12 as state-level, but the scope marking comes generic in the return (all with UF=BR), and the Quaest of June 10, by sample size (2.004) and press coverage, is likely the imminent national round.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. The highest-impact survey in the window is the Quaest of June 10 (sample 2.004, confidence 0.9), likely the national round. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual release and figures requires verification from two primary sources before citation. If the Quaest of 06/10 confirms as national, it will be the first national round since Vox on June 5 and may enter the dashboard.

3. What the press covered

The survey suspension dominated political coverage. O Globo and Folha reported that Lula's campaign classified the decision as a dangerous precedent, while G1 and Valor detailed the substance of the injunction. On the institute's side, VEJA interviewed the director of AtlasIntel, who defended the survey's methodology. Estadão placed the decision in the context of Flávio's dialogues with Vorcaro, a direct bridge to the Master case.

On the government side, the underlying driver remains the tariff increase and Pix, a framing that O POVO synthesized as the dual "BolsoMaster and TariFlávio" in Lula's strategy. Planalto expects a meeting with the U.S. Trade Representative this week to discuss the tariff increase.

On the opposition side, the Master case remains a structural liability: investigators assess that the second version of Vorcaro's plea deal proposal brings no new facts and are expected to meet with the defense, while Flávio's request remains pending for the STF to declare Moraes recused in the case. Polling-focused media, such as VEJA, mapped the Lula vs. Flávio race on the eve of Quaest, with the leftist's advantage varying, according to the institute, between 5 and 8.5 points over the weekend.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The gap between Lula and Flávio stood at +13.35pp, at the top of the cycle, with Lula stable at 40.50% and Flávio declining 0.10pp to 27.15%; Renan rose to 17.55% and Zema interrupted a sequence of declines, in a low-conviction movement in the third way.
2. No new national poll was released: Vox from June 5 remains as the reference (+8.5pp in the 1º turno) and Quaest is treated as imminent for Wednesday, June 10. The event of the day was the suspension, by the TSE, of an AtlasIntel poll at Flávio's request, with Lula's campaign speaking of a dangerous precedent.
3. The third way divergence remains the largest on the Dashboard: Renan is the favorite for third place (45.50%) against roughly 6% in polls, while Caiado scores 6.9% in Vox against 1.75% in the market. Quaest on Wednesday may be the first national test of this distance.

Sources Consulted

Articles with direct link to news

• O Globo · Nunes Marques grants Flávio's request and suspends electoral survey over possible "inducement of respondents"
• G1 · Kassio Nunes Marques orders suspension of survey showing Flávio Bolsonaro's decline
• Valor Econômico · Nunes Marques accepts Flávio Bolsonaro's request and suspends release of electoral survey
• Estadão · Nunes Marques suspends survey showing Flávio Bolsonaro's decline after talks with Vorcaro
• VEJA · What the AtlasIntel director said about the survey suspended by Nunes Marques
• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula's campaign says Nunes Marques' decision on survey sets dangerous precedent

Secondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article)

• TSE — TSE suspends release of AtlasIntel survey on presidential race over suspicion of voter inducement
• InfoMoney — Nunes Marques suspends AtlasIntel survey showing Flávio Bolsonaro's decline
• Diário de Pernambuco — Nunes Marques suspends survey showing Flávio Bolsonaro's decline
• Valor Econômico — New Quaest survey for president to assess Flávio Bolsonaro, Trump and possible tariffs to Brazil
• O POVO — BolsoMaster and TariFlávio: Lula's strategy for reelection

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched 06/08 15:00 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).