June 12, 2026

1. Prediction market

On Polymarket, the presidential reading reinforced Lula's favoritism: the PT candidate rose to 47.50% (USD 6.38M accumulated), a gain of around 3.00pp in 48 hours, while Flávio Bolsonaro fell to 26.50% (USD 6.58M), a decline of 1.50pp. The gap between the two widened to +21.00pp, the largest of the cycle and well above the +10pp difference measured in the 1º turno of Genial/Quaest on June 10. Renan Santos retreated to 13.70% (USD 6.93M) in the winner market, a drop of 2.00pp. The presidential market has accumulated a total volume of approximately USD 99.04M traded since opening, reinforcing the weight of real money behind the prices.

In the third way, the base remained compressed in the market: Camilo Santana at 2.80% (USD 3.29M), Fernando Haddad at 1.90% (USD 5.69M), Ronaldo Caiado at 1.60% (USD 4.00M) and Romeu Zema at 1.20% (USD 3.59M), all without traction in the bipolarized Lula × Flávio dispute dominating the cycle.

In the market for second place in the first round, Flávio maintained isolated leadership at 66.50%, with Renan at 16.50%. In the market for third place in the 1º turno, Renan remained isolated favorite at 51.50%, ahead of Zema (19.00%) and Caiado (16.50%), a contrast with his decline in the winner market.

In the institutional and macro sub-markets, the impeachment contract for STF minister before 2027 remained stable at 2.30% (low volume, USD ~80k), reflecting the de-escalation of the Master case. In the Senate, PL led the race for more seats at 72.50% (USD 243k). In the annual inflation market for 2026, the 5.50% to 6.00% range led at 26.50%, followed closely by the 5.00% to 5.50% range (26.20%).

2. What the institutes recorded

No new Tier 1 national poll was published on June 12. The Genial/Quaest poll from June 10 (n=2.004, field from June 5–8, 2pp margin) remained the most recent national snapshot, with Lula at 39% and Flávio at 29% in the 1º turno (gap +10pp) and Lula at 44% versus 38% in the 2º turno (gap +6pp), winning all scenarios. Earlier open-access polls, such as the Alfa released by Exame, reinforced the PT candidate's advantage (Lula 40% × Flávio 31% in the 1º turno).

The data that gained traction during the day was a breakdown from Quaest itself: among evangelicals, Flávio fell from 61% to 52% (−9pp) and Lula rose from 24% to 31% (+7pp), while among Catholics the senator remained stable (34%), according to Brasil 247 and CartaCapital. The movement was flagged by the press as the main driver of Flávio's loss of competitiveness in the aggregate.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between June 13–19. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel disclosure. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each entry linked to TSE public query. Note: the window is dominated by polls with state scope (governor/Senate); no national poll registered with sample ≥ 1,000 for the period.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective disclosure requires verification of two primary sources before citing figures.

3. What the press covered

In the opposition, the religious reading from Quaest dominated coverage: Mônica Bergamo, in Folha de S.Paulo, and other outlets highlighted Flávio's decline among evangelicals, with Revista Fórum treating the segment as a campaign concern. On the symbolic front, Flávio asked voters to wear "the Bolsonaro shirt" to cheer for the national team, an episode that fueled the narrative power struggle with the government. The reading that evangelicals were responsible for the decline circulated among secondary candidates.

On the government side, coverage was contradictory: while the market priced stronger favoritism for Lula, news reports registered fronts of wear. Estadão covered David Alcolumbre's strategy in the Senate, and Folha de S.Paulo reported that the government seeks an agreement with the Senate president to avoid wear on the security agenda and among evangelicals, amid pressure from the so-called 6x1.

On the institutional agenda, the INSS fraud case returned to center stage: Folha de S.Paulo reported that the INSS promoted an employee who authorized agreements for illegal discounts on pensions, and the Court of Audit created a new perquisite for civil servants after finding a loophole in an STF ruling. On the credibility front, the attempted concealment of documents on sports betting was treated as a new crisis for the government. The Master/Vorcaro case, in turn, lost momentum in the day's news coverage, in line with the STF impeachment contract stalled at 2.30%.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The market consolidated Lula's favoritism (47.50%, USD 6.38M) and opened the widest gap of the cycle over Flávio (+21.00pp), digesting the religious segment of Quaest from June 10.
2. Without a new national poll, the day's data was the Quaest segment among evangelicals (Flávio −9pp, Lula +7pp), confirmed by multiple outlets; the calendar for the next 7 days is dominated by state-level surveys.
3. The widest divergence on the dashboard remains Renan (market 13.70% × survey 3%), although the market maintains him as the favorite for 3rd place in the 1º turno; the Master case lost momentum (STF impeachment stalled at 2.30%).

---

Consulted sources

Articles with direct link to news

• Brasil 247 — Flávio Bolsonaro loses support among evangelicals, shows Quaest
• Revista Fórum — Abrupt decline among evangelicals is the new nightmare for Flávio Bolsonaro
• CartaCapital — Presidential voting intentions among evangelicals and Catholics, according to Quaest
• Folha de S.Paulo — INSS promotes official who authorized agreements for illegal discounts on retirees
• Folha de S.Paulo — Federal Audit Court creates new allowance for civil servants after spotting loophole in STF decision

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

• Folha — Mônica Bergamo: Flávio falls nine points among evangelicals and Lula rises seven, reveals Quaest
• G1 — Lula consolidates leadership in 2026 race and opens 10-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro
• Pleno.News — Evangelicals were responsible for senator Flávio Bolsonaro's decline
• Outlet — Flávio Bolsonaro asks voters to "wear Bolsonaro's jersey" to cheer for the national team
• Estadão — Like Trump and Bolsonaro, Alcolumbre aims at Lula, but hits Brazil
• Outlet — Government seeks agreement with Alcolumbre to avoid friction on security and among evangelicals
• Gazeta do Povo — Attempt to hide documents on betting generates new credibility crisis for government

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 12 16:58 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).