June 11, 2026

1. Prediction market

The day was one of consolidation at the top, with no new poll trigger. On Polymarket, where the presidential market accumulates around USD 98 million in bets, Lula remained stable at 44.50% (USD 6.28M accumulated volume), while Flávio Bolsonaro declined 0.65pp to 28.00% (USD 6.56M). With Lula flat and Flávio in slight retreat, the Lula × Flávio gap widened from +15.85pp to +16.50pp in 24 hours, continuing the reaction to the Genial/Quaest released the day before, now without additional momentum.

In the third way, the names remained low and the fourth place changed hands. Renan Santos fell 0.95pp and went to 15.70% (USD 6.82M) in the winner market, but maintained third place by a wide margin. Camilo Santana rose 0.65pp to 3.80% (USD 3.27M) and moved to fourth place, ahead of Haddad, stable at 2.85% (USD 5.63M). At the bottom, Caiado remained at 1.70% (USD 3.94M) and Zema declined 0.25pp to 1.60% (USD 3.55M).

In position markets, Flávio reinforced sole leadership of second place at 64.50% (USD 61k), in a contract that sees him comfortable in the runoff slot despite being an unlikely winner. Renan remained sole favorite for third place in the first round, but declined 1.50pp to 50.50% (USD 76k), ahead of Zema and Caiado in this same contract.

In institutional and macro markets, the contract for STF justice impeachment before 2027 remained at 2.30% (USD 81k), at the lowest recent level. In the Senate, PL maintained 72.50% (USD 243k) in the probability of holding the largest caucus. And in 2026 annual inflation, the range of 5.50% to 5.99% leads implicit pricing, followed closely by the neighboring ranges of 5.00% to 5.49% and 6.00% to 6.49%, all with thin volume, in the thousands of dollars.

2. What the institutes registered

No new Tier 1 national poll was released this Thursday. The Genial/Quaest released on June 10, the first national print since the Vox Brasil of June 5, continued to set the coverage agenda, with outlets publishing recaps on ten points of the survey that showed Lula widening his lead after the Master case. In the runoff, Quaest set Lula at 44% against 38% for Flávio, according to G1](https://news.google.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?oc=5).

A national counterpoint appeared in the Alfa survey, which showed Lula 40% × Flávio 31% in the first round, according to Exame, with Lula 44% × Flávio 41% in the runoff, also by Exame. Alfa converges with Quaest on Lula's leadership in the first round, but tightens the runoff margin to three points, versus six for Quaest, and AFOS registers the dispersion without treating either as an isolated trend. At the state level, regional prints came out: RealTime Big Data showed Lula leading by a wide margin in Pernambuco, according to UOL, while Futura/Apex pointed to Flávio, Caiado, and Zema ahead of Lula in runoff scenarios in Santa Catarina, according to UOL. Because they are state-level in scope, these numbers do not enter the national dashboard.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with expected publication between June 12–18. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. All state-level scope; none national in the window. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in the window). Status "registered ≠ published"; confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The institutional act of the day came from the opposition. Flávio Bolsonaro's pre-campaign filed a crime notice with the STF against Lula for threats and incitement to crime, according to UOL. The target of the filing is an earlier statement by the president: in a speech on June 2, at the inauguration of a campus of the Federal Institute Goiano in Catalão, Lula called the senator a traitor and enemy of the nation and mentioned the hanging of Joaquim Silvério dos Reis, the informant against Tiradentes. VEJA reported that Flávio went to the STF for incitement to crime and threat of hanging, and CartaCapital detailed that the filing treats Lula's speech as a threat. Worth clarifying: this is a crime notice filed on June 11, not a criminal suit accepted, and the speech that prompted it is from June 2, not from today.

On the government side, coverage continued on the Master case and political maneuvering. A report showed that the government released three times more amendments in the Senate to parties in the coalition supporting Lula's reelection than to the PL, according to material circulating in the press, a reading the press associated with the Planalto's effort to organize its base with an eye on 2026.

In procedural developments, VEJA observed the irony and requests formulated by Flávio Bolsonaro in the action targeting Lula at the STF, an episode that keeps the dispute between Planalto and opposition on judicial grounds without, so far, any impact on presidential odds.

4. Divergencies of the day

In summary

1. A day of market digestion: with no new national poll, Lula remained stable at 44.50% and Flávio fell to 28.00%, with the gap widening to +16.50pp. Renan retreated to 15.70% but maintained third place, and Camilo Santana rose to 3.80%, assuming the fourth position ahead of Haddad.
2. The Genial/Quaest of June 10 continued to set the agenda, and Alfa brought a national snapshot convergent on Lula's lead (40% × 31% in the first round), according to Exame, although with a tighter runoff (44% × 41%). State snapshots were released in Pernambuco and Santa Catarina, outside the scope of the national dashboard.
3. In the institutional field, Flávio's pre-campaign filed a criminal complaint at the STF against Lula over a statement from June 2, with no effect on quotes. The largest divergence on the dashboard remains in the third way, with Renan at 15.70% in the market against 3% in Quaest, and the market gap for Lula remains wider than the polls' margin.

🌐 Divergence without borders

This edition marks a turning point in coverage. Today, June 11, AFOS Analytics published, on its open profile on Hugging Face, three new datasets on market × research divergence from elections already held, bringing to six the countries that are open and navigable on the platform. To the already existing Brazil, Peru and Colombia are now added Chile, Germany and Canada, all from 2025. Global by design ceases to be intention and becomes substantiated: six real elections, from the Americas to Europe, under a single method.

The three new cases show the same principle in distinct contexts. In Chile, José Antonio Kast won the runoff with 58%, but for months polls showed Jeannette Jara ahead in the first round (around 26%), while the market already priced Kast around 66% to win, anticipating the union of the right in the runoff. In Germany, Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU won with around 29% and the revealing reading came in the AfD: second most-voted party (around 21%), but with only around 3% in the market for who gains the most seats, a reminder that votes are not victories in a parliament. In Canada, Mark Carney's Liberals captured the majority of seats (169 to 144) in a turnaround that the market captured early: from around 85% for the Conservatives in January to around 80% for the Liberals in April.

Latin America remains as the honest counterpoint between the market's accuracy and error. In Peru, the market made Rafael López Aliaga the favorite to win for months, but he finished in third and was eliminated from the runoff: a case in which the market was wrong. In Colombia, the opposite: the market priced Abelardo de la Espriella well above the 31.6% that polls gave him, and he won the first round with 43.7%, a case in which the market saw what polls underestimated. It is the same principle that drives the Brazilian dashboard: where there is an election, there is a signal. The six datasets are open, under CC BY 4.0 license, on Hugging Face (Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Chile, Germany and Canada).—

Sources Consulted

Articles with direct links

• CartaCapital · Flávio goes to STF against Lula over speech about "traitors to the nation"

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article)

• UOL Notícias — Flávio Bolsonaro files criminal complaint at STF against Lula for threat and incitement to crime
• VEJA — Flávio Bolsonaro goes to STF against Lula for incitement to crime and threat of hanging
• VEJA — The irony and Flávio Bolsonaro's requests against Lula in action at STF
• G1 — 10 points of Quaest in June: Lula extends lead over Flávio Bolsonaro after Master case
• G1 — Quaest 2º turno: Lula has 44% of voting intentions; Flávio Bolsonaro, 38%
• Exame — Alfa survey: Lula has 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 31%, in 1º turno
• Exame — Alfa survey: Lula has 44% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 41%, in 2º turno
• UOL Notícias — RealTime Big Data: Lula leads by a wide margin against Flávio in Pernambuco
• UOL Notícias — Futura/Apex: Flávio, Caiado and Zema lead against Lula in 2º turno in SC
• Poder360 — Government releases three times more amendments in Senate to parties in Lula's alliance than to PL

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 11, 17:35 BRT), TSE register (official electoral surveys).