June 13, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market on Polymarket took Lula to 49.50% (USD 6.40M), up 2.00pp and a new cycle high, while Flávio Bolsonaro remained stable at 26.55% (USD 6.58M). With this, the priced gap between the two opened to +22.95pp, the widest ever measured by the dashboard. Total volume traded is ~USD 99.4M in the presidential market and ~USD 103.9M across the six Brazilian markets tracked by AFOS, a foundation of real money that supports the reading. There was no new national poll on the day: the movement reflects digestion of the Genial/Quaest poll from June 10 and the Pesquisa Alfa, without an isolated event that explains it, which recommends reading it as continuity of a series of gains, not as reaction to a single fact.

The third name in the presidential market remains Renan Santos, at 13.10% (USD 6.94M), in slight decline of 0.60pp. Behind him, the intermediate band remained tangled and in small movements: Camilo Santana at 2.35% (USD 3.31M), Fernando Haddad at 2.00% (USD 5.70M, ↑0.10pp), Romeu Zema at 1.65% (USD 3.63M, ↑0.45pp) and Ronaldo Caiado at 1.35% (USD 4.00M, ↓0.25pp). Tarcísio de Freitas remains at 0.15% in the presidential market, a number of low activity in a legacy market, with his signal concentrated in São Paulo, where he leads reelection.

In the market for 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio reinforced isolated leadership at 68.00% (USD 62k), ahead of Renan, at 16.65% (USD 1.01M). In the market for 3rd place in the 1º turno, Renan is the favorite at 52.00% (USD 77k), with Caiado and Zema tied at 16.50% (USD 21k and USD 13k, respectively). The combined reading of the three markets shows a stable picture: the market sees Lula and Flávio in the two 2º turno spots and disputes only who closes the podium of the 1º turno behind them.

In the institutional sub-markets, the contract for impeachment of some STF justice before 2027 rose to 3.60% (USD 82k), up 1.30pp on low volume, a technical movement of little liquidity without new tribunal agenda on the day. The market for Senate majority saw PL jump to 76.50% (USD 243k), up 4.00pp, with the market preserving the institutional reach of the party even with Flávio in decline in the polls.

In the market for annual inflation in 2026, the distribution continues with fat tail and two leading bands practically tied: 5.00% to 5.49% at 29.10% (USD 7k) and 5.50% to 5.99% at 28.70% (USD 6k), with the band from 6.00% to 6.49% at 22.45%. The picture indicates persistent inflationary uncertainty, without directional migration to the extreme tail.

2. What the institutes recorded

No new Tier 1 national poll was published on June 13. The reference of the cycle remains the Genial/Quaest poll from June 10 (n=2.004, field from June 5–8, 2pp margin), which gave 1º turno Lula 39% × Flávio 29% (gap +10pp) and 2º turno Lula 44% × Flávio 38% (gap +6pp), with Lula winning all scenarios and government approval at 47% × 48%.

The national counterpoint for the period came from Pesquisa Alfa, which showed Lula ahead of Flávio and reinforced the trend of presidential recovery, in line with the numbers already mentioned in previous syntheses. The next window of registrations at the TSE is dominated by state-scope polls, and there are no national-scope polls with publication scheduled in the next seven days according to TSE metadata.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered at the TSE with publication scheduled between June 14 and June 18. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. All registered for the window are state-scope according to TSE metadata. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. Press coverage

The dominant narrative of the day was the interview with the Quaest director, who described what he called "the right's paradox": Flávio Bolsonaro loses strength, but rivals fail to inherit anti-Lula votes. The same narrative was replicated by open-access outlets, which reported that Lula grows, Flávio loses strength, and the right still lacks a name capable of unifying the opposition and that Quaest itself exposes the "right's paradox" with Flávio in decline.

In the opposition camp, coverage documented a moment of tension in Flávio's candidacy: VEJA described a campaign in difficult times, with a polling setback and a rift among allies, while Estadão's analysis indicated that Flávio will need a "rebranding" given the government's use of state resources. The fragility of the Bolsonarist camp also appeared in market coverage, with MSN reporting that Lula grows and Flávio recedes amid the Master case fallout, with no clear alternative on the right.

For the third way, coverage reinforced the narrative of narrow space: Novo tries to balance between Zema's presidential candidacy and alliances with Flávio in the states, a tension that dilutes the party's national message. In parallel, Estadão reported that the alternative vote from Lula and Flávio voters brings bad news to the third way, according to Genial/Quaest.

On the institutional agenda, the Master case gained a development outside the courtroom: Folha reported that, facing the BRB/Master crisis, the Federal District government hired an audit and identified 7,000 underutilized properties. On the fiscal front, the backdrop of Haddad's portfolio, G1 reported that the "tax on small clothing items," before being revoked, yielded more than R$ 2 billion to the government in 2026.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. With no new national survey, the market renewed Lula's peak (49.50%) and opened the largest gap ever measured over Flávio (+22.95pp), in a movement better read as accumulated digestion than as a reaction to an isolated event.
2. The day's editorial reading, Quaest's "right-wing paradox," aligns with what the market already showed: Flávio loses strength without rivals inheriting the anti-Lula vote, and the third way remains at the floor in surveys and sub-markets.
3. The most relevant divergence remains Renan, 13.10% in the market against 3% in Quaest, with the next window of TSE records dominated by state surveys and no national print expected for the next seven days.—

Sources Consulted

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

• G1 — 'Right-wing paradox': Flávio Bolsonaro loses strength, but rivals fail to inherit anti-Lula votes, says Quaest director

• VEJA — With slump in polls and split among allies, Flávio's campaign faces difficult moment

• G1 — 2026 Elections: Novo tries to balance between Zema's candidacy and alliances with Flávio Bolsonaro in the states

• G1 — Before being revoked, 'blouse tax' raised over R$ 2 billion for government in 2026

• Folha de S.Paulo — With BRB/Master crisis, DF government hires audit and identifies 7,000 underutilized propertiesSecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• O Cafezinho — Quaest: Lula grows, Flávio loses momentum and right remains without name capable of unifying opposition

• O Cafezinho — Alfa Research shows Lula ahead of Flávio and reinforces president's recovery trend

• Estadão — Using state resources, Lula outmaneuvers opposition, and Flávio will need a 'rebranding'

• Estadão — Alternative vote by Lula and Flávio voters brings bad news to third way, says Genial/Quaest

• Diário do Centro do Mundo — Quaest exposes "right-wing paradox" with Flávio Bolsonaro in decline

• MSN — Lula grows, Flávio plummets with Master scandal and right remains without alternative, says Quaest director

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 13 15:00 BRT), TSE registration (official electoral research).