June 14, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market kept Lula at 49.50% (USD 6.43M) on this June 14, at the cycle peak, with the gap over Flávio Bolsonaro, at 26.65% (USD 6.60M), at +22.85pp, near the widest ever measured. The movement of the day, however, came from the third name: Renan Santos rose to 14.65% (USD 6.98M), a gain of ↑1.55pp and the largest of the day in the winner's market, sustained by the highest accumulated volume among the candidates. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals approximately USD 99.6M, reinforcing the thesis of real money behind the quotes.

The reading that organizes the picture follows the "right-wing paradox" described by the director of Quaest: Flávio loses strength, but rivals do not convert that loss into declared votes in polls, according to the coverage by Quaest on G1. Therefore, Renan's rise in the market coexists with only 3% in the latest national poll, the Genial/Quaest of June 10, widening the largest panel divergence, detailed in Section 4.

In the third way, the presidential market had only base readjustment. Zema rose to 1.95% (USD 3.65M), a gain of ↑0.30pp, Haddad to 2.05% (USD 5.72M), ↑0.05pp, and Caiado remained stable at 1.35% (USD 4.02M). Camilo Santana, at 2.45%, continues as the fourth presidential name in the market, ahead of Haddad.

In the institutional market, the STF justice impeachment contract remained stable at 3.60% (USD 82k), a low level with little liquidity, with no repricing of risk over the weekend. In the 2026 annual inflation market, the bands of 5.00% to 5.49% (25.65%) and 5.50% to 5.99% (25.35%) lead almost tied, a distribution indicating persistent uncertainty, with slight relief in the high tail compared to the previous day.

In the first-round sub-markets, Flávio leads second place (68%, USD 62k) and Renan leads third place (48%, USD 77k), ahead of Zema and Caiado (~15.5% each). In the Senate by seats market, the PL leads (73%, USD 243k), a sign of institutional reach.

2. What the institutes registered

The national reference for the period remains the Genial/Quaest of June 10 (n=2.004, field from June 5–8, margin of 2pp): first round with Lula at 39% versus 29% for Flávio (gap +10pp) and runoff at 44% versus 38% (gap +6pp), with Lula winning all scenarios and government approval at 47% versus 48% disapproval. There was no new national poll published on June 14, and the press is already working with expectations of a new Datafolha next week, still without numbers released (VEJA).

Unlike previous weeks, the TSE registration window for the next seven days now contains national scope polls, not just state-level ones: registered for release are Nexus (June 15), MDA, American Analytics, and 100 Cidades (June 16), and Datafolha (June 19), all with declared national universe and sample from 1,000 respondents. The full calendar is in the block below.

📅 Polls calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between June 15–21. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

On the government front, the day's agenda was international: Lula traveled for the G7 meeting in France, with no formal bilateral meeting with Donald Trump confirmed on the schedule, according to weekend news coverage. In Congress, the PEC on ending the 6x1 work schedule continues in the Senate after passage in the Chamber, with government coordination stalled by lack of dialogue with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, who is advancing his own agenda (G1).

On the opposition front, the week solidified the perception of Flávio's decline. Genial/Quaest registered loss of support among evangelicals, women, young people, and in the Southeast, as reported by G1 and by Quaest's regional coverage. The campaign still faces an impasse over the vice-presidential nominee, and allies suggest testing Cleitinho (Folha de S.Paulo via news aggregator).

Right-wing internal friction gained another chapter: Eduardo Bolsonaro defended a split between the PL and Novo following new remarks by Romeu Zema about Flávio and the Vorcaro case, according to O Globo and aggregated coverage. In parallel, the PL decided it will only officially formalize Flávio's candidacy at the end of July, at an event in São Paulo (Gazeta do Povo), which prolongs the uncertainty in the field. On the institutional front, the Master case remained active without new court action over the weekend, and the weekend was further emptied by the opening of the World Cup, with Brazil against Morocco dividing political attention.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The market kept Lula at the cycle peak (49.50%, gap +22.85pp) and had as the day's movement Renan's rise to 14.65% (↑1.55pp), the largest increase among candidates.
2. Quaest of June 10 remains as the national reference, with Flávio losing support among evangelicals, women and youth, while the opposition exposes friction with the defense of a split between PL and Novo by Eduardo Bolsonaro.
3. The largest divergence on the panel widened: Renan at 14.65% in the market versus 3% in Quaest, approximately 11.65pp, without support in national survey.

🌐 Divergence without borders

AFOS Analytics' method, crossing markets and surveys and verifying the signal against the actual ballot-box results, has already validated seven cases across three continents: Peru, Colombia, Chile, Germany and Canada, added to the United Kingdom and Mexico in 2024. The cases are on the global hub.

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Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

• O Globo — Eduardo Bolsonaro defends break with Novo after Zema's criticism of Flávio BolsonaroSecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• G1 — Flávio Bolsonaro loses support among evangelicals, women, young people and in the Southeast, shows Quaest

• Quaest (regional coverage) — Flávio Bolsonaro has decline in support among young people, women and evangelicals

• Gazeta do Povo — PL will formalize Flávio for the Presidency at the end of July in SP

• Folha de S.Paulo (via aggregator) — Flávio's campaign faces impasse with name for vice and allies suggest testing Cleitinho

• Aggregated coverage — Eduardo Bolsonaro defends rupture between PL and Novo after Zema's statement

• VEJA — Electoral polls: the Lula x Flávio dispute in the week of the new Datafolha

• Blog do Esmael — Lula goes to G7 without formal Trump

• G1 — Without dialogue with Lula, Alcolumbre blocks government agenda in the Senate

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 14 14:30 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).