June 15, 2026

1. Prediction market

The day saw clear movement in the presidential market on Polymarket. Lula rose to 51.50% (USD 6.48M accumulated volume), a gain of 2.00pp that marks a new cycle high, while Flávio Bolsonaro fell to 25.55% (USD 6.64M, decline of 1.10pp). The result is the widest gap yet measured between the two: +25.95pp, compared to +22.85pp the day before. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market reaches approximately USD 100.28M, summing all active candidacies.

The methodological highlight came in the third way. Renan Santos, who the day before recorded the largest gain in the winner market, reversed course and fell to 11.65% (USD 7.04M, decline of 3.00pp), still the highest accumulated volume among all presidential names. Among the others, Caiado was the only one to rise, to 1.50% (USD 4.10M, gain of 0.15pp), while Haddad fell to 1.95% (USD 5.72M), Camilo Santana to 1.75%, and Zema to 1.25% (USD 3.69M).

Tarcísio de Freitas remains at 0.15% in the presidential race, despite the largest book in market volume (USD 12.7M accumulated), a legacy anomaly from old bets, since the governor is focusing on reelection in São Paulo. In position sub-markets, Flávio leads the 2nd place in the first round with 67.5% (USD 0.1M volume, low) and Renan leads the 3rd place with 47.5%, ahead of Caiado (16.5%) and Zema (15%).

Outside the presidential race, the STF justice impeachment market remained stable at 3.50%, in a low-volume book, without repricing of institutional risk. The Senate seat count market keeps PL in the lead with 73% (USD 0.2M volume), and the 2026 annual inflation market continues with the 5.00% to 5.49% range leading at around 25%, followed by the 5.50% to 5.99% range.

2. What the institutes registered

The national reference for the day is the BTG/Nexus survey (n=2,017, field of June 12–14, margin of 2pp, TSE protocol BR-06645/2026, contractor Banco BTG Pactual). In the first round, Lula has 42% against 33% for Flávio (gap of +9pp); in the runoff, Lula goes to 49% against 43%, outside the margin.

The data that generated most repercussion was the government approval assessment: approval reached 48% against 47% disapproval, surpassing disapproval for the first time in the cycle, according to JOTA. The survey also brings Flávio's rejection at 52% and Lula's at 47% (Metrópoles), and excellent or good approval at 38%. The numbers confirm the direction of improvement measured in the three previous rounds of the indicator (42% approval in Real Time Big Data of June 1, 47% in Genial/Quaest of June 10).

In the TSE registry aggregate, the disclosure window for the coming days returns to containing national-scope surveys, with Datafolha scheduled to publish from Friday, June 19, including Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa among the names tested, according to G1. On the state level, governor surveys point to the right leading in nine states, the center in nine, and the left in two, according to O POVO.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with the TSE with scheduled release between June 16–22. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. Press coverage

Press coverage for the day centered on the BTG/Nexus research, interpreted by media as consolidation of the president's lead. JOTA framed the result as Lula stronger and Flávio pressured by rejection, and CartaCapital described Lula pulling away from Flávio in the runoff.

From the opposition side, coverage highlighted the weight of rejection as Flávio's main obstacle in the runoff, a figure that CNN Brasil and VEJA also documented. The Master case remains a structural liability for the opposition in news coverage, with no new legal developments confirmed by two independent sources on this date.

Regarding next steps, part of coverage has already turned to the polling calendar, with CartaCapital listing the national rounds coming after Nexus, with Datafolha on June 19 as the next relevant marker.

4. Divergencies of the day

In summary

1. Nexus/BTG Pactual on June 15 gave Lula the largest advantage of the cycle in the polls and the first approval above disapproval, and the market responded with a new peak (51.50%) and the widest gap ever measured (+25.95pp).
2. The speculative bet on Renan Santos from the previous day was partially undone: the 3.00pp decline narrowed the widest divergence in the panel, an example of the market self-correcting when the movement has no counterpart in surveys.
3. The next marker is Datafolha on June 19, which will begin testing Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa and may rearrange the third way space.—

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

• Estadão — BTG/Nexus: Lula has 49% against 43% of Flávio in the 2º turno

• Folha de S.Paulo — BTG/Nexus: Lula surpasses Flávio by 49% to 43% in the 2º turno

• VEJA — How the dispute between Lula and Flávio stands, according to BTG/Nexus

• G1 — Datafolha releases presidential survey starting Friday (19) with Aécio and Joaquim BarbosaSecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Poder360 — Lula has 49% versus 43% of Flávio in the 2º turno, says Nexus/BTG Pactual

• JOTA — BTG/Nexus shows Lula stronger and Flávio more pressured by rejection

• Metrópoles — BTG/Nexus: Flávio's rejection reaches 52%; Lula maintains 47%

• CNN Brasil — Nexus/BTG: in the 2º turno, Lula goes to 49%; Flávio maintains 43%

• CartaCapital — Lula breaks away from Flávio in the second round, shows BTG/Nexus

• CartaCapital — The next voting intention polls, after Nexus

• O POVO — Governor polls show right ahead in 9 states

• Gazeta do Povo — Nexus/BTG Pactual releases poll for President of the Republic

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 15, 19:40 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).