June 16, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market on Polymarket had a day of stability at the top and movement in the tail. Lula maintained the cycle peak at 51.50% (USD 6.50M accumulated volume), while Flávio Bolsonaro declined slightly to 25.35% (USD 6.70M, down 0.20pp). The result is the widest gap yet measured between the two: +26.15pp, compared to +25.95pp the previous day. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals approximately USD 100.63M, combining all active candidacies.

The day's movement came from Renan Santos, who rose again to 14.05% (USD 7.10M, up 2.40pp) in the winner's market, reversing the previous day's decline, with the highest accumulated volume among all presidential names. Among others, Caiado rose to 1.95% (USD 4.10M, up 0.45pp), tied with Haddad (1.95%, USD 5.80M); Camilo Santana stood at 1.90% and Zema at 1.35% (USD 3.70M, up 0.10pp).

Tarcísio de Freitas remained at 0.15% in the presidential market, despite the largest market book by volume (USD 12.70M accumulated), a legacy anomaly from old bets, since the governor focuses on reelection in São Paulo. In position sub-markets, Flávio led the 2nd place in the 1st round with 70% (USD 0.10M volume, low) and Renan the 3rd place with 47.5%, ahead of Caiado (14.5%) and Zema (14%).

Outside the presidential, the STF minister impeachment market declined to 3.25%, in a low-volume book, with no institutional risk repricing. The Senate by number of seats market kept PL in the lead with 73% (USD 0.20M volume), and the 2026 annual inflation market remained tight, with the 5.00% to 5.49% range leading around 24%, followed by the 6.00% to 6.49% range (around 21%).

2. What the institutes registered

The day brought two new national polls, both with Lula expanding. CNT/MDA (n=2.002, field June 10–14, margin 2.2pp, TSE protocol BR-04256/2026) showed 1st round Lula 41.8% versus 28.2% for Flávio (gap +13.6pp) and 2nd round 49.3% versus 36.8% (gap +12.5pp), the largest 2nd round gap in the sample.

Futura/Apex (n=2.000, field June 8–12, TSE protocol BR-01461/2026) showed 1st round Lula 41.6% versus 34.1% for Flávio and 2nd round 48.1% versus 42.9%. The most notable finding in this round is in a scenario without Flávio: there, Lula reaches 42.7% with Caiado at 16.5% and Zema at 13.3%, a sign of how much right-wing vote is trapped in Flávio while he is the current name.

In the TSE registry aggregate, the week's window again contains a heavyweight national: Datafolha is scheduled to publish starting Friday, June 19, including Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa among the tested names, according to G1.

📅 Research calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with scheduled publication between June 17–23. Table inclusion does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

Coverage of the day revolved around the two polls. CNN Brasil detailed the figures from Futura/Apex and Money Times framed CNT/MDA as Lula defeating all opponents in the 2º turno. The common thread between the two is the reading of Flávio as more distant: CNT/MDA registers the largest 2º turno disadvantage in the sample, and Futura/Apex shows the hypothesis, still theoretical, that the right could have more momentum without Flávio in the race.

On the institutional front, the PGR rejected Daniel Vorcaro's second plea bargain proposal, in a decision communicated to the STF on June 15, following the position that the Federal Police had already adopted the previous week. It will be up to André Mendonça, rapporteur in the Master case at the Supreme Court since February 2026, to decide Vorcaro's detention status, held since November 2025.

The institutional agenda of the day, therefore, was a development and not a watershed moment: the rejection of the plea bargain closes one more avenue of negotiation in the case, but the market for impeachment of an STF minister retreated, a sign that the reading of institutional risk did not rise.

4. Divergencies of the day

In summary

1. Two new national surveys, CNT/MDA and Futura/Apex, confirmed Lula widening the advantage in the 1º turno and in the 2º turno, and the market kept Lula at the peak (51.50%) with the widest gap yet measured (+26.15pp).
2. Renan Santos rose again (14.05%, up 2.40pp) and reopened the largest divergence on the panel, a speculative movement that unwound and reformed over 48 hours with no backing in the surveys.
3. On the institutional front, the PGR rejected Daniel Vorcaro's second plea bargain proposal on June 15, and it will fall to the case's rapporteur to decide the ex-banker's detention status; the impeachment market retreated, with no elevated risk priced in.

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Estadão — CNT/MDA: Lula has 49.3% and Flávio 36.8% in the runoff

• Folha de S.Paulo — CNT/MDA: Lula would defeat Flávio 49% to 37% in the 2º turno

• Exame — Futura/Apex: Lula has 41.6% and Flávio 34.1% in the 1º turno

• G1 — Datafolha releases presidential survey starting Friday (19) with Aécio and Joaquim BarbosaSecondary stories (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Poder360 — Lula has 48.1% and Flávio 42.9% in eventual 2º turno, says Futura/Apex

• CNN Brasil — Futura/Apex: Lula has 41.6% and Flávio 34.1% in 1º turno

• Money Times — CNT/MDA: Lula expands in 1º turno and would win all in 2º turno

• Tribuna do Sertão — Lula has 49.3% against 36.8% of Flávio in 2º turno, points out CNT/MDA

• Metrópoles — PGR rejects second proposal of Daniel Vorcaro's plea deal

• viva.com.br — Futura/Apex: Lula has 48.1% against 42.9% of Flávio in 2º turno

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 16 15:00 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).