1. Prediction market

The Polymarket turned around in this snapshot on Monday, June 22, a day without a new national voting survey. Lula jumped to 55.50% (USD 6.67M, ↑4.00pp), a new cycle peak, while Flávio Bolsonaro retreated to 23.75% (USD 6.90M, ↓1.15pp), so the gap between the two opened to +31.75pp, a record for the period (it was +26.60pp). Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals around USD 103M.

The methodological reading is one of repricing, not a single trigger: with no ballot event on the day, the market appears to have digested the Datafolha from Saturday, which measured a competitive 2º turno (47% × 43%), in light of a Master case that the press began to read as greater damage to the opposition. Correlation does not authorize causation, but the day's net result was the market opening distance in favor of the president.

Renan Santos retreated to 13.70% (USD 7.33M, ↓0.60pp), still the largest accumulated volume in the presidential market, and remains locked in as the favorite for 3rd place in the 1º turno, at 60.5% in the placement sub-market. The third way retreated as a bloc: Caiado fell to 1.55% (USD 4.32M, ↓0.45pp), Haddad to 1.75% (USD 5.87M, ↓0.35pp) and Zema to 1.15% (USD 3.81M, ↓0.25pp), with Camilo Santana at 1.65%. In the 2nd place in the 1º turno sub-market, Flávio remains isolated at the front, at 68.5%.

In other markets, the STF impeach rose slightly to 3.75% (USD 82k), at a low level. In Senate by number of seats, PL retreated to 76.5% (USD 243k), maintaining the lead. In 2026 annual inflation, the 5.00-5.49% band remains leader at 33.3%, followed by the 5.50-5.99% band at 21.8% and the 6.00-6.49% band at 21.6%, a distribution that indicates uncertainty.

2. What the institutes recorded

No new national voting intention survey was registered with the TSE on Monday, June 22. The voting reference remains the Datafolha from Saturday, June 20 (n=2,004, field June 17-19, TSE protocol BR-09956/2026, 2pp margin), which showed 1º turno Lula 41% × Flávio 31% and 2º turno Lula 47% × Flávio 43% (gap +4pp, the tightest among recent national surveys), according to CNN Brasil.

The day's new data was evaluative, not voting. Ipsos-Ipec published a national survey with the Lula government evaluated by 32% as excellent or good, 38% as poor or very poor, and 28% as fair, according to G1, with Revista Fórum registering decline in rejection and increase in fair evaluation compared to the previous round. O Globo highlighted the other side of the same survey, with 56% of Brazilians saying they do not trust the president. The day before, Datafolha had already measured approval of 48% against disapproval of 49%. The widest divergence on the dashboard remains with Renan, at around 10.70pp (market 13.70% against 3% in Datafolha in the 1º turno), narrowed slightly by the market's retreat.

📅 Survey calendar for the next 7 days

Surveys registered with the TSE with publication scheduled between June 23 and June 29. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each record linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
June 23	Indexa	2,000	national	TSE registration	-
June 23	Real Time Big Data	1,600	state	TSE registration	-
June 24	Gerp	2,000	to confirm	TSE registration	-
June 25	JOTA 🔥	6,000	national	TSE registration	-
June 26	PoderData	2,400	to confirm	TSE registration	-
June 27	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	TSE registration	-

Source: public TSE registration via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Registered status ≠ published: confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. National highlight of the week: JOTA (June 25), large sample.

3. What the press covered

The political axis continued to be the Banco Master case, now with a concrete development affecting the government. Folha de S.Paulo reported that Jaques Wagner resists stepping down from government leadership in the Senate, but Lula should recommend his departure, following the Federal Police operation on June 18. CartaCapital reported that the PT is already orchestrating Wagner's succession in the leadership, in an episode that strains the Planalto's coordination in Congress.

On the electoral front, press coverage began to weigh more heavily on the opposition. BncAmazonas reported that the Master case opened an evangelical gap in Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, and O Cafezinho assessed that Datafolha widens Lula's lead and isolates Flávio on the right. Estadão weighed in that, reaching PL, PP and PT, the case tests the limits of voters' cynicism, spreading damage across multiple camps.

In the third-way field, Gazeta do Povo dedicated analysis to Renan, asking whether he is a third-way name for the future, not already. The split on the right persists, after Romeu Zema denied proximity to Flávio in the preceding days, while the entry of Aécio Neves and Joaquim Barbosa in the Datafolha lineup (both at the floor) continues as backdrop to the fragmentation of the anti-Lula camp.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × survey: today's record. Datafolha on Saturday measures a competitive 2º turno (47% × 43%, gap +4pp), the tightest among recent national polls, but Polymarket moved in the opposite direction on Monday: Lula jumped to 55.50% and the gap over Flávio widened to +31.75pp, a cycle record. The distance between the two readings deepened, with the market doubling its bet on the president's probability of victory.

Market × political pressure: the PF operation in the Master case targets Jaques Wagner, the government's leader in the Senate, with Lula about to recommend his removal from leadership (Folha). Even with the wear-and-tear spilling over to the government camp, the market read the case's balance as greater damage to the opposition (evangelical shortfall in Flávio's campaign) and widened the gap in Lula's favor. With no ballot event on the day, the record is one of repricing, not a single isolated trigger.

Market × survey (Renan): the widest divergence on the Dashboard remains with Renan, at about 10.70pp (market 13.70% against Datafolha's 3% in the 1º turno). The market locks him in as the favorite for 3rd place in the 1º turno (60.5%), but does not give him a real chance to win: niche capital, not victory capital.

In summary

Market turnaround on a Monday without new vote polling: Lula jumped to 55.50% (↑4.00pp), a new cycle peak, and Flávio fell to 23.75% (↓1.15pp), so the gap widened to +31.75pp, a record for the period. The total accumulated volume in the presidential race sums to approximately USD 103M.
The new data was on approval, not on voting: Ipsos-Ipec gave the Lula government 32% excellent/good and 38% poor/very poor (G1), while the Master case gained development regarding the government, with the PF targeting Wagner and Lula about to recommend his removal from leadership (Folha).
The market × survey divergence deepened: Datafolha measured a competitive 2º turno (+4pp), but the market widened the gap in Lula's favor to a cycle record. Next ballot tests: Indexa (June 23) and JOTA (June 25, n=6.000).

Consulted sources

articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 22 18:30 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).

June 22, 2026