June 23, 2026

1. Prediction market

Polymarket made a partial reversal on Tuesday of yesterday's jump. After the presidential gap hit the cycle record on June 22, the market gave back part of the move: Lula fell to 53.50% (down 2.00pp, USD 6.7M accumulated volume) and Flávio Bolsonaro recovered to 25.55% (up 1.80pp, USD 6.9M), so the distance between the two closed from +31.75pp to +27.95pp. The total volume traded in the presidential market totals around USD 104.1M accumulated, reinforcing that this is real money, not polling data.

Renan Santos fell slightly to 13.35% (down 0.35pp) and maintains the highest accumulated volume in the presidential market, USD 7.4M. The third way remained at the floor and practically stable: Ronaldo Caiado rose to 1.65% (up 0.10pp, USD 4.3M), Fernando Haddad fell to 1.55% (down 0.20pp, USD 5.9M) and Romeu Zema remained stable at 1.15% (USD 3.8M), in the range of Camilo Santana (1.65%).

In sub-markets, the structure did not change: Flávio remains isolated as the favorite for 2nd place in the 1º turno (71.5%), Renan cemented in 3rd place (60.5%) and PL leading the Senate by number of seats (76.5%). The market for impeachment of STF minister rose to 4.30% (up 0.55pp), in low volume and at a level that continues to price in very low institutional odds. In the 2026 inflation market, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% leads with 32.4%, followed by the range of 5.50% to 5.99% (23.5%) and 6.00% to 6.49% (19.8%), a distribution pointing to persistent macro uncertainty.

The technical reading for the day is a correction of an overextended gap, not a trend reversal: the market continues to cement Lula's favoritism well above the runoff measured at the polls.

2. What polling institutes recorded

The highlight was the national Indexa survey, published on June 23, which widened Lula's advantage. In the 1º turno, Lula has 42% against 31% of Flávio (gap of +11pp), with Lula at 48.8% of valid votes. In the runoff, Lula has 47% against 40% of Flávio, winning all rivals. The field was June 18 to 20, with 2,000 telephone interviews and a margin of 2.2pp. The institute itself summarizes that Lula improves, but rejection grows: Lula and Flávio are rejected by 49% each, in a polarization scenario that consolidates through loyal voting.

Indexa reinforces the direction of recent nationals. Datafolha on June 20 (n=2.004, BR-09956/2026) gave 1º turno 41% to 31% and runoff 47% to 43%; CNT/MDA on June 16 gave runoff 49.3% to 36.8%, the largest gap in the sample; and Nexus/BTG Pactual on June 15 gave 49% to 43%, with government approval at 48% against 47%. Five consecutive national polls with Lula ahead.

On the state level, the contrarian reading came from Rio Grande do Sul: Real Time Big Data gave Flávio with 51% against 42% of Lula in the runoff and 42% to 39% in the first round, with a field from June 20 to 22 and 1,600 interviews. It is a local reading, not national, but shows districts where the opposition leads.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication planned between June 24 and June 30. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public TSE registration via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3.000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

On the opposition side, the day saw movement on the external front. Flávio Bolsonaro registered to speak at a hearing in the United States before the final decision on the tariff increase, and according to Folha de S.Paulo he is expected to ask the Trump administration to suspend the sanctions process until the election; the Lula administration will not participate. On the electoral-judicial front, the Electoral Justice ordered the removal of posts associating Flávio with organized crime, a topic that CartaCapital also covered, linking posts to the kickback scheme.

On the government front, the Federal Police operation targeting Jaques Wagner, the government's leader in the Senate, continued in the background, and CartaCapital crossed the new Nexus/BTG Pactual survey with the operation. Flávio's pre-campaign, in parallel, fears that the STF will weaken the TSE and harm him in the dispute.

São Paulo returned to the center of the board: VEJA reported that Lula and Flávio intensify the battle for the state, with agendas in the country's largest electoral college. In survey news, Indexa appeared in multiple outlets, with the common reading that high rejection of both names crystallizes polarization.

4. Divergencies of the day

In summary

1. The market corrected yesterday's record gap, with Lula dropping to 53.50% and Flávio recovering to 25.55%, and the distance closing to +27.95pp; the presidential market accumulates around USD 104.1M in volume.
2. The Indexa national poll widened Lula in the 1º turno (42% to 31%, 48.8% of valid votes) and in the 2º turno (47% to 40%), but recorded high rejection for both names (49% each).
3. Today's divergence is the opposite direction between market and national poll: the market shifted back in favor of Flávio sustained by the state level (RS, 51% to 42% in the 2º turno) and by the external front (hearings in the US on the tariff increase), not by the national aggregate.

Consulted sources

articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

• O Globo — Flávio Bolsonaro registers to speak at U.S. hearing before final decision on tariff increase

• Valor — TSE minister orders removal of posts associating Flávio with organized crime

• VEJA — Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro intensify decisive battle for São PauloSecondary articles (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article):

• viva.com.br — Indexa: Lula has 47% against 40% of Flávio in the 2º turno

• CNN Brasil — Real Time Big Data: Flávio has 51% in the 2º turno in RS; Lula, 42%

• R7 — Real Time Big Data: Flávio leads in RS with 42% against 39% of Lula in the 1º turno

• JOTA — Indexa: Lula widens lead and reaches 42%; Flávio has 31%

• JOTA — Lula improves, but rejection grows, Indexa survey indicates

• Bnews — Lula leads comfortably and would beat all rivals in the 2º turno, Indexa indicates

• Folha de S.Paulo (Painel) — Flávio should ask Trump government to suspend sanctions process until election

• CartaCapital — The new Nexus/BTG Pactual survey and the operation against Jaques Wagner

• TSE orders removal of posts linking Flávio Bolsonaro to CV

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 23 17:25 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).