Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

Polymarket opened this Wednesday with the largest gap of the cycle. Lula jumped to 57.50% (increase of 4.00pp, USD 6.9M accumulated volume), a new peak, and Flávio Bolsonaro fell to 22.90% (decrease of 2.65pp, USD 7.0M), so the distance between the two reached +34.60pp, a record for the period (it was +27.95pp). The presidential market has a total accumulated volume of ~USD 105.1M. There is no clear triggering event for the jump: the reading is technical, the market extended in favor of Lula and priced in the recent consensus of Tier 1 polls, ignoring the tight picture from Gerp published today.

Renan Santos fell to 12.35% (decrease of 1.00pp, USD 7.4M volume, the highest in the presidential market) and remains the favorite for 3rd place in the 1º turno (58.5% in the sub-market). The third way fell to the floor: Ronaldo Caiado at 1.45% (decrease of 0.20pp, USD 4.4M), Fernando Haddad at 1.45% (decrease of 0.10pp, USD 5.9M), Camilo Santana at 1.35% and Romeu Zema at 0.95% (decrease of 0.20pp, USD 3.9M), below 1%.

In sub-markets, Flávio remains isolated as the favorite for 2nd place in the 1º turno (75.5%) and PL leads the Senate by number of seats (76.5%). The STF minister impeachment market fell to 2.55% (decrease of 1.75pp), institutional risk at its floor. In the 2026 inflation market, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 38.8% and the lower range, 4.50% to 4.99%, jumped to second place (32.85%), a signal of lower inflation expectations.

2. What the institutes recorded

The highlight was the Gerp national poll, published on June 24, which went against the market. In the 1º turno, Lula has 37% versus 34% for Flávio (gap of +3pp), and in the 2º turno Flávio appears ahead, with 42% versus 40% for Lula, the two in Empate técnico. Lula's approval came in at 44%. The field was from June 15 to 20, with 2,000 interviews and a margin of 2.19pp.

It is necessary to read Gerp with the caveat that it is a smaller institute and an outlier. The consensus of Tier 1 national polls in recent weeks has Lula comfortably ahead: Indexa on June 23 gave 1º turno 42% to 31% and 2º turno 47% to 40%; Datafolha on June 20, 1º turno 41% to 31% and 2º turno 47% to 43%; CNT/MDA on June 16, 2º turno 49.3% to 36.8%; and Nexus/BTG Pactual on June 15, 2º turno 49% to 43%. It is this direction that the market prices in.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE with publication scheduled between June 25 and July 1. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Registry	Conf.
June 25	JOTA 🔥	6,000	national	TSE registry	-
June 27	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	TSE registry	-
June 27	Almeida e Cavalcanti	2,000	state	TSE registry	-
June 29	Nexus	2,000	national	TSE registry	-
June 29	Datatrends	1,200	state	TSE registry	-

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The day had a strong symbolic component. Flávio Bolsonaro published a video made with AI "rescuing" Neymar after a critique by Lula of the player, an episode that dominated political coverage and which VEJA, G1 and O Globo reported. On the external front, Flávio plans a meeting with Javier Milei in Argentina on a tour with right-wing leaders, and confirmed a trip to the USA against the tariff increase, comparing Lula to Biden (Poder360). VEJA, in a column by José Casado, reported that he supported the tariff increase and now says he will "defend companies".

On the government side, Lula intensifies agendas in Rio de Janeiro, a strategic stronghold, taking advantage of Flávio's fragile platform. The PF operation on Jaques Wagner continues as backdrop and, according to Estadão, returns ammunition to Bolsonarism on the corruption issue.

Within the right, Renan Santos declared that "Bolsonarism died" and that Flávio is "unviable" against Lula, betting on the migration of anti-PT votes. On the legal-electoral front, a new battle over PIX is underway at the TSE involving Lula, Dario Durigan and Flávio (CartaCapital), and the coordinator of Flávio's campaign filed suits with TCU and PGR against government advertising. Within the PT, Haddad entered the debate on Lula's succession and defended consulting party membership via primary. The Master/BRB case remained quieter on the day, with no significant new coverage.

4. Day's divergences

Market × research: the divergence reached the extreme of the cycle. Polymarket opened the gap at +34.60pp in favor of Lula on the same day Gerp measured Empate técnico, with Flávio ahead in the 2º turno (42% to 40%). The market has never been so laterally favoring Lula, and the day's research has never shown it so tight.

Research × research: Gerp (1º turno 37% to 34%; 2º turno Flávio 42% to 40%) is an outlier point against the recent Tier 1 consensus (Indexa 2º turno 47% to 40%; Datafolha 2º turno 47% to 43%; CNT/MDA 2º turno 49.3% to 36.8%; Nexus/BTG Pactual 2º turno 49% to 43%), all with Lula comfortable. The market chose to follow the consensus, not the outlier.

Market × research, Renan: the market maintains Renan at 12.35% and as the favorite for 3rd place in the 1º turno (58.5%), while research measures him in the 3% range. The gap of approximately 9.35pp remains the widest on the Dashboard.

In summary

The market opened the largest gap of the cycle in favor of Lula (57.50%, +4.00pp; Flávio 22.90%, gap of +34.60pp), in a technical movement with no clear triggering event; the presidential market totals ~USD 105.1M.
The national Gerp research went in the opposite direction, with Empate técnico (1º turno Lula 37% to 34%; 2º turno Flávio 42% to 40%), but it is a smaller institute and outlier against the Tier 1 consensus, which has Lula comfortable.
The market × research divergence reached the extreme of the cycle, against the backdrop of Neymar AI video, Flávio's international tour (Milei, USA, tariff increase) and Renan's attack on Bolsonarism.

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 24 18:39 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).

June 24, 2026