AFOS Analytics

AFOS Daily · Daily Synthesis

June 25, 2026

Prediction Markets × Polls × News

Synthesis generated from auditable data. Every claim cites its source.

Harvard Dataverse · DOI 10.7910/DVN/2D0UK7

The market made a partial reversal after yesterday's record: Lula retreats to 56.50% and Flávio rises to 23.45%, with the gap closing to +33.05pp, precisely on the day PoderData/Aya tightened the race (2º turno in Empate técnico, 46% x 43%). On the political front, Flávio apologized to Michelle and Haddad confirmed Márcio França as his running mate in SP. Total accumulated volume in the presidential race above USD 105M.

1. Prediction market

O Polymarket fez uma reversão parcial após o gap recorde da véspera. Lula recuou a 56.50% (USD 6.9M), queda de 1.00pp ante o pico de ontem, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro subiu a 23.45% (USD 7.0M), alta de 0.55pp, de modo que o gap entre os dois fechou em +33.05pp, recuando do recorde de +34.60pp registrado em June 24. O movimento devolveu parte do prêmio esticado na véspera, mas mantém Lula em posição dominante no topo. O volume total acumulado no mercado presidencial segue acima de USD 105M, reforçando a leitura de dinheiro real (Polymarket).

Na terceira via e nos nomes seguintes, Renan Santos recuou a 11.45% (USD 7.5M), queda de 0.90pp, e seu favoritismo ao 3º lugar do 1º turno caiu de 58.5% para 44% no sub-mercado, com Caiado (12.5%) e Zema ganhando terreno. Michelle Bolsonaro entrou no book a 2.65% (USD 8.2M) em meio ao episódio do dia. O grupo da terceira via subiu de leve do piso: Caiado a 1.65% (USD 4.4M), alta de 0.20pp, Zema a 1.15% (USD 3.9M), alta de 0.20pp, e Haddad a 1.25% (USD 5.9M), queda de 0.20pp, na faixa de Camilo Santana (1.15%).

Nos sub-mercados, Flávio mantém isolado o 2º turno do 1º turno (78.5%), e o PL lidera o Senado por número de cadeiras (76.5%), à frente de MDB (11.2%) e União Brasil (4.95%). O mercado de impeachment no STF seguiu no piso, a 2.55% (USD 82 mil), sinal de risco institucional baixo (Polymarket).

No mercado de inflação de 2026, a expectativa cedeu mais: a banda mais baixa, 4.50% a 4.99%, passou a liderar a 44.85% (vinha de 32.85% em June 24), à frente da faixa 5.00% a 5.49% (37.9%) e da 5.50% a 5.99% (16.9%). É um pano de fundo macro de inflação esperada menor.

2. What the institutes recorded

A pesquisa nacional do dia foi a PoderData/Aya, com campo de June 21 a 24, 2.400 entrevistas em 617 municípios e margem de 2 pontos. No 1º turno, deu Lula 40% x Flávio 36% (Empate técnico no limite da margem), com Renan e Caiado a 4% (Poder360). No 2º turno, Lula 46% x Flávio 43%, também Empate técnico, e Lula empata tecnicamente com Zema e Caiado (CNN Brasil). É a segunda pesquisa nacional seguida, após a Gerp de June 24, a apontar 2º turno apertado.

A mesma rodada trouxe a leitura de avaliação mais negativa do recorte recente: aprovação de 43% e desaprovação de 52% do governo Lula, com rejeição de 50% a Lula e 48% a Flávio (CartaCapital, Revista Oeste). Esse número contrasta com o consenso de aprovação no patamar de 48% das rodadas recentes (Nexus/BTG Pactual 48% x 47%, Datafolha 48% x 49%). Houve também nova rodada AtlasIntel divulgada no dia (VEJA), cujos números detalhados aguardam confirmação de fonte primária antes de citação.

📅 Research calendar — next 7 days

Pesquisas registradas no TSE com publicação prevista entre June 26 e July 2. Inclusão na tabela não significa publicação confirmada — institutos podem atrasar ou cancelar divulgação. Filtro aplicado: amostra ≥ 1.000. Cada protocolo linkado à consulta pública TSE.

DataInstitutoAmostraEscopoProtocolo TSEConf.
June 26PoderData2.400nacionalregistro TSE0.7
June 27Vox Brasil2.100nacionalregistro TSE0.6
June 29Nexus2.000nacionalregistro TSE0.7
June 30AtlasIntel 🔥5.000nacionalregistro TSE0.9

Fonte: registro público TSE via API AFOS. 🔥 destaca amostras ≥ 3.000. Status "registrada ≠ publicada" — confirmação de divulgação efetiva exige verificação de duas fontes primárias antes da citação de números.

3. What the press covered

In the opposition field, the day was marked by a personal episode. Flávio Bolsonaro apologized to Michelle Bolsonaro after she stated, in videos, that she had been disrespected amid disagreements over PL alliances in Ceará. Flávio denied having humiliated the former First Lady, said he had invited her personally, and stated he was not reciprocated, in an episode that exposed the split in the Bolsonaro family (Brasil de Fato, Jornal de Brasília). Within the right, Renan Santos resumed attacks, declaring that "Bolsonarism is dead" and that Flávio is unviable against Lula (Estadão).

In the government field, Haddad confirmed Márcio França (PSB) as running mate on the slate for the São Paulo government, with Marina Silva and Simone Tebet defined as pre-candidates for Senate, following a meeting conducted by Lula (JOTA, Correio Braziliense). In the third way arena, Zema denied alliances with Flávio and Caiado and promised to announce the running mate next week (Estadão).

On the international agenda, discussion continued on Donald Trump's interference in Brazilian elections: a special adviser to Lula stated that the attempted intervention could have the opposite effect (BBC News Brasil). In a record of international context, Colombia officially proclaimed Abelardo de la Espriella as new president (G1).

4. Divergences of the day

Market vs. research: Polymarket maintains Lula dominant at 56.50%, with a gap of +33.05pp over Flávio, while PoderData/Aya, the second consecutive national poll, points to a 2º turno in Empate técnico (46% x 43%). The market corrected yesterday's overstatement, but continues pricing in the Tier 1 consensus (Indexa 2T 47% x 40%, Datafolha 2T 47% x 43%), which gives Lula greater cushion than today's poll.

Research vs. research: PoderData brought the lowest approval in the recent sample (43% x 52%), against the 48% level from Nexus/BTG Pactual and Datafolha rounds. The divergence between institutes on government evaluation is, in itself, a signal to monitor.

Market vs. market: Renan fell both in the winner market (11.45%) and in the third-place sub-market (from 58.5% to 44%), with Caiado and Zema advancing. The space of the non-Flávio right, formerly concentrated in Renan, became more contested in the same trading session.

In summary

  1. The market returned part of yesterday's record (Lula 56.50%, gap +33.05pp) on the day when PoderData/Aya tightened the 2º turno to Empate técnico (46% x 43%), the second consecutive national poll in that direction.
  2. The political field was dominated by ticket movements and personal episodes: Haddad confirmed França as running mate in SP, Flávio apologized to Michelle and Zema denied alliances.
  3. Expected inflation eased further (the 4.50% to 4.99% band took the lead at 44.85%) and impeachment risk at STF remained at floor (2.55%), on a day with no acute institutional trigger.—

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 25 17:30 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

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Sources cited in this text: Polymarket, [TSE](/en/glossary#tse) (public registry), Poder360, CNN Brasil, CartaCapital, Revista Oeste, JOTA, Correio Braziliense, Brasil de Fato, Estadão, O Globo, VEJA, Folha de S.Paulo, BBC News Brasil, G1

Method: this synthesis is generated automatically from auditable data on the AFOS Analytics platform, under code-versioned rules in git. All claims can be verified on the platform or in the linked sources. Understand the automated governance.

Integration: for live data and detailed candidate analyses, access the full dashboard. To understand the method in depth, read The Method.

Glossary: Brazilian political terms used in the syntheses (TSE, STF, BolsoMaster, lideranças envelhecidas, etc.), definitions in 3 languages. See the full glossary →

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AFOS Daily — June 25, 2026 | AFOS Analytics