June 27, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 99 days until the 1º turno, Polymarket consolidated Lula at the top and pushed the presidential gap into record territory. Lula remained stable at 56.50% (USD 7.0M accumulated volume) and Flávio fell to 22.15% (↓0.80pp, USD 7.1M), such that the Lula x Flávio gap widened to +34.35pp (↑0.80pp), the widest in the dataset. On a Saturday with lighter news flow, the presidential market moved little, and all movement favored Lula. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 105M, the real money backing that distinguishes AFOS Analytics' reading from a poll average.

In the third name on the market, Renan Santos rose to 11.65% (↑0.20pp, USD 7.5M, the highest accumulated volume in the presidential market), followed by Michelle Bolsonaro at 3.10% (↑0.05pp, USD 8.4M). The third way remained at the floor: Caiado fell to 1.30% (↓0.15pp, USD 4.5M), Zema remained stable at 1.25% (USD 4.0M) and Haddad fell to 1.15% (↓0.10pp, USD 6.0M), in line with Camilo Santana (1.15%).

In the position sub-markets, Flávio slightly declined in 2nd place of the 1º turno, but held it comfortably at 76.5% (USD 84k), with Renan in second at 12.05% (USD 1.0M). In the 3rd place sub-market of the 1º turno, Renan maintained favoritism at 50% (USD 93k), now with greater margin, as Caiado fell to 16% (USD 25k) and Zema to 15% (USD 16k).

The institutional thermometer declined: the impeachment market at STF returned to floor at 2.65% (↓0.75pp, USD 82k), retracing the June 26 peak after a day of full institutional agenda. In the Senate by number of seats, PL remained in the lead at 76.5% (USD 244k), ahead of MDB at 11.15%. In the 2026 inflation market, the 5.00–5.49% band remained leader at 37.80% (USD 7.5k), followed by the 4.50–4.99% at 31.75% (USD 9.0k), with the consensus 4.50–5.49% totaling 69.55%.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought a new national poll result. Vox Brasil (Vox Populi), with fieldwork from June 23–25 and sample of 2,100, released a runoff in Empate técnico: Lula 45.3% x Flávio 42.8% (gap +2.5pp, within margin), the tightest in the dataset. In the 1º turno, Lula 38.3% x Flávio 32.2% (gap +6.1pp). Against the institute's own round from June 5 (runoff 47.8% x 41.3%), Lula declined 2.5pp and Flávio rose 1.5pp, tightening the second round.

Vox's result contrasts with the recent Tier 1 consensus, which gives Lula greater margin in the runoff: Indexa June 23 (47% x 40%), Datafolha June 20 (47% x 43%), CNT/MDA June 16 (49.3% x 36.8%) and Nexus/BTG Pactual June 15 (49% x 43%). Government approval remains at the 48% level (Datafolha 48% x 49%; Nexus/BTG Pactual 48% x 47%), with high rejection for the top two candidates. In the institutional field of the cycle, TSE has received 141 complaints, of which 9 deal with artificial intelligence use, a theme the court monitors as a 2026 challenge.

📅 Poll Calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between June 28–July 4. Inclusion in table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. Notable are AtlasIntel's pair of nationals (n=5,000 each) scheduled for June 30 and July 1.

3. What the press covered

Legal pressure on Flávio gained a new chapter. In a final report sent on June 26 to minister Alexandre de Moraes, the Federal Police concluded that Flávio slandered Lula by associating him with drug trafficking, referring to a post from January 3, 2026 in which the senator attributed to the president crimes such as drug trafficking and money laundering. According to the report, the manifestation was sent to the STF and it now falls to the Attorney General's Office to decide between filing charges, requesting further investigation, or dismissing the case. The inquiry was opened by order of Moraes. In parallel, Flávio announced a trip to the United States to negotiate with Trump.

On the government front, the Master case took a breather after the political shift on June 26 (Jaques Wagner's departure from government leadership in the Senate). With no new developments, Wagner resumed defending his own innocence, citing the president's remarks. The rapporteur assignment for the Vorcaro/Master case at the STF continues with André Mendonça.

On the opposition front, the Bolsonaro family crisis continued in the news, with BBC questioning whether Michelle's video backfired on her. On the third way front, the Public Ministry of Goiás filed a lawsuit against the use of police officers as Caiado's security guards, local noise for the PSD pre-candidate. In São Paulo, the definition of the PT ticket, with França, Tebet and Marina stitching together the alliance, continued as the state backdrop.

4. Day's Divergences

In summary

1. 99 days from the 1º turno, the market consolidated Lula (56.50%, stable) and took the gap over Flávio (22.15%, ↓0.80pp) to the widest of the sample (+34.35pp), in a book of over USD 105M.
2. Vox Brasil released the tightest 2º turno of the cycle (Lula 45.3% x Flávio 42.8%, Empate técnico), narrowing from its own previous round, while Tier 1 consensus continues to give Lula greater cushion.
3. PF concluded, in a June 26 report, that Flávio slandered Lula (it falls to PGR to decide next steps), the Master case gave ground and STF impeach receded to floor (2.65%), in a weekend in which all market movement favored Lula.—

Consulted sources

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Goiás Public Ministry files action against use of police officers as Caiado's security

• Credited — Federal Police concludes that Flávio Bolsonaro slandered Lula

• Portal AZ — Federal Police concludes that Flávio Bolsonaro slandered Lula in social media postSecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Valor Econômico — PF says Flávio Bolsonaro slandered Lula by associating him with trafficking

• Exame — Vox Brasil Survey: Lula has 45.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 42.8%, in the runoff

• Estadão — Flávio Bolsonaro goes to the US to negotiate the price of his offer to Trump

• VEJA — New AtlasIntel survey shows Lula vs. Flávio dispute after crisis in Bolsonaro family

• Metrópoles — 2026 Elections: TSE has already received 141 complaints; 9 address AI use

• BBC News Brasil — Did Michelle's video against Flávio Bolsonaro backfire on her?

• Gazeta do Povo — França, Tebet and Marina patch holes for PT in São Paulo

• vermelho.org — PF investigation concludes that Flávio Bolsonaro slandered President Lula

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 27, 18:42 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).