Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

100 days from the 1º turno, Polymarket kept Lula dominant and practically stable at 56.50% (USD 6.9M), while Flávio Bolsonaro fell to 22.95% (USD 7.1M), a decline of 0.50pp, so the gap between the two reopened to +33.55pp (it was +33.05pp on June 25), back close to the record of +34.60pp. On a day of heavy institutional news coverage, the presidential race barely moved. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market remains above USD 105M, reinforcing the reading of real money (Polymarket).

In the third way and following names, Renan Santos remained stable at 11.45% (USD 7.5M), but recovered favoritism for 3rd place in the 1º turno, which rose to 50% in the sub-market (it was 44%), with Caiado (21%) and Zema (16%) gaining ground behind. Michelle Bolsonaro advanced in the book to 3.05% (USD 8.3M), a rise of 0.40pp. The third way group remained at the floor: Caiado at 1.45% (USD 4.4M), a decline of 0.20pp, Zema at 1.25% (USD 4.0M), a rise of 0.10pp, and Haddad stable at 1.25% (USD 6.0M), in the range of Camilo Santana (1.15%) (Polymarket).

In sub-markets, Flávio holds isolated 2nd place in the 1º turno (78.5%), and PL leads the Senate by number of seats (76.5%), ahead of MDB (11.15%). The impeachment on STF market rose to 3.40% (USD 82 thousand), a rise of 0.85pp on a day of full institutional agenda, but remained at the floor, a sign of minister removal risk still low (Polymarket).

In the 2026 inflation market, the band 5.00% to 5.49% led again, at 38.05%, followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% range (33.4%): the two combined account for 71.45% of the market, a macro consensus of expected inflation in the range of 4.5% to 5.5% (Polymarket).

2. What the institutes recorded

The date marked 100 days to the 1º turno, and the balance of surveys for the period shows Lula favored in a tight race with Flávio, with the third way that did not take off (Poder360). The last national survey with detailed numbers remains PoderData/Aya, with field from June 21 to 24, which gave 1º turno Lula 40% x Flávio 36% and 2º turno in Empate técnico (46% x 43%).

On the day, a new round of AtlasIntel was reported measuring the effect of Michelle Bolsonaro's video on the race (CartaCapital), whose detailed numbers await confirmation from primary source before citation. In a record of regional context, the first half balance describes the campaign sequence as a honeymoon of Flávio followed by a comeback of Lula (Estadão). In state survey, Lula appears almost 20 points ahead of Flávio in Minas Gerais (Revista Fórum).

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered at TSE with publication expected between June 27 and July 3. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Registration	Conf.
June 27	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	TSE registration	0.6
June 29	Nexus	2,000	national	TSE registration	0.7
June 30	AtlasIntel 🔥	5,000	national	TSE registration	0.8
July 1	AtlasIntel 🔥	5,000	national	TSE registration	0.7

Source: public record TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The date was framed by the press as 100 days until the 1º turno, with outlets publishing the electoral calendar, the list of pre-candidates and the factors testing the succession (G1). The prevailing interpretation is of Lula as the favorite in a tight race, with the third way that has not taken off in polls (Poder360).

In government circles, the Banco Master case reached Congress coordination. Jacques Wagner stepped down from his government leadership role in the Senate on June 24, after being targeted in a Federal Police operation phase regarding Banco Master, and Lula appointed Teresa Leitão (PT-PE) to the position on June 25 (G1, Farol de Notícias). The change in leadership continued to reverberate on June 26, with reactions from allies and opponents of the senator from Bahia.

In the opposition camp, developments continued regarding the video in which Michelle Bolsonaro exposed disagreements with Flávio and the campaign leadership. The press recalled tensions between Michelle and Bolsonaro's children (Folha de S.Paulo) and detailed the messages from the former First Lady in the video that exposed the crisis (O Globo). Flávio's campaign sought to contain the episode's impact on the race.

On the institutional agenda, the TSE registered an increase in actions related to the use of artificial intelligence and anticipated propaganda 100 days before the election (G1), a matter the Court monitors as one of the challenges of the 2026 election.

4. Divergences of the day

Market x institutional narrative: Polymarket kept Lula dominant at 56.50%, with a gap of +33.55pp over Flávio, even on the day the Master case reached government leadership in the Senate (Jacques Wagner's departure, Teresa Leitão's appointment). The market read the episode as political noise, not as electoral repricing, and the impeachment risk at the STF, although it rose to 3.40%, remained at floor level.

Market x market: Renan recovered favoritism for 3rd place in the 1º turno (from 44% to 50%) in the sub-market, but Caiado (21%) and Zema (16%) gained traction on the same trading day. The space of the non-Flávio right, which seemed consolidated in Renan, remains in internal dispute 100 days before the 1º turno.

Market x research: the market keeps Lula at 56.50% and a gap of +33.55pp, while the most recent polls point to a tight runoff (PoderData/Aya 46% x 43%). It is the persistent divergence of the dashboard: the market prices in the margin of the Tier 1 consensus (Indexa runoff 47% x 40%, Datafolha runoff 47% x 43%) above the tight research of the segment.

In summary

100 days before the 1º turno, the market kept Lula dominant and stable (56.50%) and the gap over Flávio reopened to +33.55pp, near the record, on a day when the presidential barely moved despite heavy institutional news coverage.
The Master case reached government leadership in the Senate (Jacques Wagner departed on June 24, Teresa Leitão was appointed on June 25), but the market did not reprice against Lula and the impeachment risk at the STF, although it rose to 3.40%, remained at floor level.
Renan recovered favoritism for 3rd place in the 1º turno (50%), with Caiado and Zema advancing behind, a sign that the space of the non-Flávio right remains in dispute.

Sources Consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 26 14:47 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

June 26, 2026