June 28, 2026

1. Prediction market

98 days until the 1º turno, Polymarket brought Lula to a new record. Lula rose to 57.50% (↑1.00pp, USD 7.0M cumulative volume) and Flávio remained nearly flat at 22.25% (↑0.10pp, USD 7.1M), so the Lula vs. Flávio gap widened to +35.25pp (↑0.90pp), the widest in the sample. On a Sunday with lighter news coverage, all movement in the presidential market favored Lula. The total cumulative volume in the presidential market amounts to approximately USD 107M, the real money backing that differentiates the AFOS reading from a polling average.

In the third name on the market, Renan Santos remained practically flat at 11.60% (↓0.05pp, USD 7.5M, the highest cumulative volume in the presidential race), followed by Michelle Bolsonaro at 2.95% (↓0.15pp, USD 8.4M). The third way remained at the floor: Caiado fell to 1.25% (↓0.05pp, USD 4.5M), Zema yielded to 1.15% (↓0.10pp, USD 4.0M) and Haddad to 1.05% (↓0.10pp, USD 6.0M), in the range of Camilo Santana.

In the position sub-markets, Flávio declined slightly in 2nd place of the 1º turno, but maintained it comfortably at 75.5% (USD 84k), with Renan in second at 12.05% (USD 1.0M). In the 3rd place sub-market of the 1º turno, Renan held favored status at 49.5% (USD 93k), with a comfortable margin over Caiado at 16% (USD 25k) and Zema at 13% (USD 16k).

The institutional thermometer remained stable: the impeachment market at the STF remained at the floor at 2.65% (USD 82k). In the Senate by number of seats, PL remained in the lead at 76.5% (USD 244k), ahead of MDB at 11.15%. In the 2026 inflation market, the 5.00–5.49% band rose and led at 38.65% (USD 9.0k), followed by 4.50–4.99% at 30.95% (USD 9.0k), with the 4.50–5.49% consensus summing to 69.60%.

2. What the institutes recorded

Sunday had no new national poll result: the latest remains the Vox Brasil of June 27, which showed a 2º turno in Empate técnico (Lula 45.3% vs. Flávio 42.8%, +2.5pp, the tightest in the cycle). The recent Tier 1 consensus continues to show Lula with greater margin in the second round: Indexa June 23 (47% vs. 40%), Datafolha June 20 (47% vs. 43%), CNT/MDA June 16 (49.3% vs. 36.8%) and Nexus/BTG Pactual June 15 (49% vs. 43%). Government approval remains at the level of 48% (Datafolha 48% vs. 49%; Nexus/BTG Pactual 48% vs. 47%).

The day's highlight came from an approval breakdown: according to the Quaest poll, Lula has 51% approval among independent voters, and 35% of women declare themselves anti-Flávio. In parallel, O Globo mapped the non-polarized voters: those who reject neither Lula nor Flávio total 27% and tend to be guided by concrete agendas.

📅 Poll schedule — next 7 days

Polls registered at TSE with publication planned between June 29 and July 5. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. The national AtlasIntel was postponed to July 1, with a new questionnaire submitted to TSE that measures the Michelle vs. Flávio conflict and the Jaques Wagner case, according to Revista Fórum.

3. What the press covered

On the opposition front, Sunday brought concrete data on Flávio's mandate. A survey reported by Valor and Folha shows that the senator was absent from 43% of nominal votes in the Senate in 2026, against an average of 20% among the 81 senators. Flávio responded that he exercises his mandate actively and committedly, despite the absences. In parallel, the Bolsonaro family crisis continued in the news: according to O Globo, Michelle uses the PL structure in the dispute over Bolsonaro's political legacy, a topic also addressed in Miriam Leitão's column.

In the government field, Lula consolidated his lead in coalitions: according to CNN Brasil, the president closed alliances in 25 states, against 14 by Flávio, a platform and TV time advantage one month before conventions, when the presidential candidates negotiate the vice presidency thinking about reducing voter resistance.

In the institutional field, the Master case remained an open front: Minister André Mendonça is expected to send a request to the PGR this week to investigate Vorcaro's financing of the film "Dark Horse", an outcome still pending. In the third way, Renan Santos is betting on crowdfunding, the MBL base, and Faria Lima to run for 2026 without party machinery, which confirms the absence of party structure behind the name that the market keeps in third place. In São Paulo, a new survey tested the dispute between Tarcísio and Haddad for the governorship, the state backdrop of the ticket in which Haddad confirmed França as vice.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. 98 days from the 1º turno, the market took Lula to a new record (57.50%, ↑1.00pp) and the gap over Flávio (22.25%, ↑0.10pp) to the widest in the series (+35.25pp), on a book of approximately USD 107M.
2. Without new national polling, the day saw pro-Lula flow: Flávio missed 43% of Senate votes in 2026, the crisis in the Bolsonaro family persists, and Lula leads in coalitions (alliances in 25 states against 14), with Quaest giving Lula 51% approval among independents.
3. The STF impeach remained stable at the floor (2.65%) and the Master case continued as an open front (Mendonça prepares a request to the PGR on the financing of the "Dark Horse"); the AtlasIntel national survey of July 1 is the next test of the divergence.

Consulted sources

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Valor Econômico — Flávio Bolsonaro was absent in 43% of Senate nominal votes in 2026

• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro was absent in 43% of Senate nominal votes this year

• O Globo — In conflict with Flávio, Michelle uses PL structure in dispute over Bolsonaro's political legacy

• G1 — Mendonça should send to the Office of the Attorney General this week a request to investigate Vorcaro's financing of the film 'Dark Horse'

• Estadão — Renan bets on crowdfunding, MBL base and Faria Lima to run in 2026 without party apparatusSecondary stories (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• CNN Brasil — Elections: Lula defines alliances in 25 states; Flávio, in 14

• Revista Fórum — Quaest: Lula has 51% approval among independents; 35% of women are anti-Flávio

• O Globo — Meet the non-polarized: voters who neither reject Lula nor Flávio total 27%

• G1 — One month before conventions, presidential candidates negotiate running mate choices to reduce voter resistance

• VEJA — New poll shows dispute between Tarcísio and Haddad for São Paulo governorship

• Revista Fórum — New AtlasIntel poll for president that includes impact of Michelle vs. Flávio dispute

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 28 13:50 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).