June 29, 2026

1. Prediction market

97 days before the 1º turno, Polymarket had a rare day of convergence with polls. Lula fell to 56.50% (↓1.00pp, USD 7.0M), dropping from the previous day's record, while Flávio rose to 23.55% (↑1.30pp, USD 7.1M). The result was a narrowing of the presidential gap to +32.95pp (↓2.30pp), after the indicator hit a record of +35.25pp on June 28. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 107M, reinforcing that the movement occurs in a liquid book, not in noise from low activity.

The market's third name also moved: Renan Santos rose to 12.55% (↑0.95pp, USD 7.6M), the largest accumulated volume in the presidential race, and expanded favoritism for 3rd place in the 1º turno to 53.5% (↑4pp, USD 112k) in the specific sub-market, with a clear lead over Caiado (18%) and Zema (10.5%). At the lower end of the dispute, Caiado remained stable at 1.25% (USD 4.5M), Zema rose slightly to 1.20% (↑0.05pp, USD 4.0M) and Haddad remained at 1.05% (USD 6.0M). Michelle Bolsonaro posted 3.15% (↑0.20pp, USD 8.4M).

In the sub-market for 2nd place in the first round, Flávio expanded his lead to 78.5% (↑3pp, USD 92k), maintaining a clear edge over Renan. In the Senate market by number of seats, PL fell slightly to 75.5% (↓1pp, USD 244k), still on top. The institutional risk market STF impeachment rose to 2.90% (↑0.25pp, USD 82k), remaining at the floor: real money keeps the probability of a minister's removal by impeachment before 2027 low.

In the 2026 annual inflation market, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 36.00% (USD 7.6k), followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% band with 29.05%; together, the two central bands sum 65.05% of probability, a sign of a macro scenario priced as controlled within the 4.50% to 5.49% range.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought a new first-tier national poll: BTG/Nexus of June 29, sponsored by Banco BTG Pactual and registered with the TSE under BR-08521/2026. With n=2.009 and field work from June 26 to 28, the poll showed 1º turno Lula 42% to Flávio 34% (Caiado 5%, Renan Santos 4%, Zema 3%) and runoff Lula 47% to Flávio 44%, a technical tie within the 2-point margin. Compared to the institute's own round of June 15 (runoff 49% to 43%), Lula lost 2 points and Flávio gained 1, tightening the race.

The same round measured government approval in a technical tie, 48% to 48%, with disapproval rising 1 point since the previous round. In rejection, Flávio remains ahead: 51% would not vote for him, versus 49% who reject Lula. The breakdown remains consistent with consensus from recent weeks (Vox June 27 and PoderData/Aya June 25 also showed runoff in a technical tie), while Quaest pointed to 51% approval of Lula among voters who declare themselves neither PT nor Bolsonaro supporters.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE with expected publication between June 30 and July 6. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: TSE public registry via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. This week's highlight is the two national rounds from AtlasIntel (June 30 and July 1), the first large-scale national polls since Vox and BTG/Nexus.

3. What the press covered

In the opposition camp, the day was marked by international coordination. Flávio Bolsonaro met with Argentine president Javier Milei at the Quinta de Olivos in Buenos Aires, in a meeting where Milei predicted that the "blue wave" would reach Brazil in 2026. The gesture carries symbolic weight, signaling alignment with the regional right, but the domestic electoral base remains challenging: Folha de S.Paulo indicates that the Northeast becomes an obstacle for Flávio, with fragile platforms and hesitant allies. Internally, the PL continues to manage the family crisis, with Valdemar Costa Neto meeting with Michelle Bolsonaro to try to end the friction after videos from the former First Lady with criticism of Flávio.

In the government camp, coordination in Congress took on a new name: Teresa Leitão assumed leadership of the government in the Senate, replacing Jaques Wagner, who left the position on June 24 following a PF referral and maintains his defense of his own innocence. The senator will have to unlock Executive priorities in the pre-electoral stretch.

On the institutional agenda, the STF had developments in the investigation into alleged slander by Flávio against Lula: Alexandre de Moraes gave the PGR 15 days to respond after the PF concluded that the senator associated Lula with drug trafficking (a procedural step, not a merits decision). In parallel, the Master/Vorcaro case remains open, with André Mendonça preparing the request to the PGR regarding the financing of the film "Dark Horse" by Vorcaro. Folha de S.Paulo also reported that STF ministers project different scenarios based on the election result, a reading that keeps the court at the center of the 2026 dispute.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Day of convergence: the market reduced Lula to 56.50% (↓1.00pp) and raised Flávio to 23.55% (↑1.30pp), tightening the gap to +32.95pp and moving away from the record, in the same direction as the new survey.
2. Nexus/BTG Pactual June 29 (n=2,009) showed 2º turno in empate técnico (47% to 44%) and approval in a tie (48% to 48%), with Flávio narrowing the difference compared to its own June 15 round.
3. In the news, Flávio aligned with Milei in Argentina ("blue wave"), Teresa Leitão assumed government leadership in the Senate, and Moraes gave the PGR 15 days in the inquiry into alleged slander by Flávio; this week's focus is the two AtlasIntel national surveys (June 30 and July 01).

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Nexus/BTG Pactual: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie again, with 47% to 44% in the 2º turno

• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro and Milei meet, and Argentina's president speaks of 'blue wave' for Brazil

• Folha de S.Paulo — Northeast becomes a challenge for Flávio Bolsonaro with fragile campaign structures and hesitant allies

• O Globo — Moraes gives PGR 15 days to respond after PF concludes that Flávio slandered Lula by associating him with drug trafficking

• O Globo — Valdemar meets with Michelle to try to end crisis in PL after videos of former first lady with criticism of Flávio

• Folha de S.Paulo — STF ministers foresee court in jeopardy if Lula wins election and daily clashes if Flávio winsSecondary stories (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Gazeta do Povo — Nexus/BTG Pactual releases new presidential survey

• Poder360 — Lula's approval and disapproval tied at 48%

• Leia Sempre Brasil — Quaest shows 51% approval of Lula among voters who do not identify as PT or Bolsonaro supporters

• Correio Braziliense — Milei receives Flávio Bolsonaro and forecasts advance of the right in Brazil

• Mais Região — Teresa Leitão is the new government leader in the Senate

• Pleno.News — Moraes sends to PGR inquiry on alleged defamation by Flávio against Lula

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 29, 17:14 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).