Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

96 days before the 1º turno, Polymarket extended for a second day the movement of convergence with polls. Lula retreated to 55.50% (↓1.00pp, USD 7.1M), in the second consecutive decline, while Flávio rose to 23.95% (↑0.40pp, USD 7.1M). The presidential gap narrowed to +31.55pp (↓1.40pp), now 3.70pp below the record of +35.25pp registered on June 28. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 107M, a sign that the adjustment occurs in a net book, not in low-activity noise.

The third name in the market moved little in the aggregate, but advanced in the specific sub-market: Renan Santos remained stable at 12.45% (↓0.10pp, USD 7.6M), the highest accumulated volume in the presidential race, and widened the favoritism for 3rd place in the 1º turno to 57% (↑3.5pp, USD 110k), with a comfortable margin over Caiado (18.5%) and Zema (9.5%). At the bottom of the race, the highlight was Caiado, who rose to 1.55% (↑0.30pp, USD 4.5M), leaving the floor, while Zema retreated to 1.05% (↓0.15pp, USD 4.0M) and Haddad gave ground to 0.95% (↓0.10pp, USD 6.0M). Michelle Bolsonaro fell to 2.45% (↓0.70pp, USD 8.5M), a significant decline even with her video against Flávio featured in the news.

In the sub-market for 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio maintained the lead at 78.5% (stable, USD 90k), with a comfortable margin over Renan. In the Senate market by number of seats, the PL remained stable at 75.5% (USD 244k), at the top. The institutional risk market STF impeachment retreated to 2.65% (↓0.25pp, USD 80k), staying at the floor: real money keeps the probability of removing a minister by impeachment before 2027 low.

In the 2026 annual inflation market, the band from 5.00% to 5.49% leads with 35.70% (USD 10k), followed by the band from 4.50% to 4.99% with 29.00%; together, the two central ranges account for 64.70% of probability, maintaining the macro scenario priced as controlled within the range of 4.50% to 5.49%.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought no new national poll: the AtlasIntel national (BR-04582/2026, n=5.000, field from June 25 to 30) was postponed from June 30 to July 1, with a questionnaire measuring the conflict between Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro and the Jaques Wagner case. Confirmation that the round comes out this Wednesday, already with Michelle in the scenario keeps the last national as the Nexus/BTG Pactual of June 29 (1º turno Lula 42% to Flávio 34%; 2º turno 47% to 44%, Empate técnico).

The impact of this round dominated coverage of the day, with regional breakdowns gaining detail. According to the survey, Flávio Bolsonaro leads in the South and North/Center-West, while Lula maintains the advantage in the Northeast. In segmentation detail, Flávio reaches 60% among evangelicals, while Lula opens 29 points over Flávio among elderly voters. Nexus/BTG Pactual itself associates a roughly 5-point swing of Lula downward in the Northeast to the operation against Jaques Wagner in the Master case. In editorial reading of the same round, Gazeta do Povo points out that anti-PT sentiment complicates Lula in the 2º turno against Flávio.

📅 Polls calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE with publication scheduled between July 1 and July 6. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1.000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
July 1	AtlasIntel 🔥	5.000	national	BR-04582/2026	0.9
July 1	Paraná Pesquisas	1.600	state	TSE registry	0.8
July 1	PNH	1.500	state	TSE registry	0.6
July 2	Instituto Gazeta 🔥	3.000	state	TSE registry	0.7
July 3	Ranking Brasil	2.000	state	TSE registry	0.7
July 3	Datafolha (SP)	1.608	state	TSE registry	0.9

Source: public TSE registry via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3.000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective publication requires verification of two primary sources before citing numbers. The highlight of the week is the AtlasIntel national on July 1 (the first large-scale national since Nexus/BTG Pactual), followed by Datafolha's state round in São Paulo, expected to be released from Sunday onward (July 5).

3. What the press covered

The news of the day came from the third way. Ronaldo Caiado is set to officially announce Gilberto Kassab (PSD) as his running mate in a single-party slate on Wednesday, July 1, at a press conference scheduled for 11:00 AM in Brasília, forming a slate composed exclusively of PSD members. The press interpretation is that the move formalizes the candidacy, but does not change the competitive landscape: Nexus/BTG Pactual from June 29 measures Caiado at 5% in the 1º turno, and the governor himself admitted that the center-right does not have a "universal name" to run for President. The announcement was also covered by Folha de S.Paulo.

In the opposition camp, Flávio Bolsonaro's international tour had a development: after the meeting with Javier Milei on June 29, the Argentine president abandoned his plan to attend the Mercosur Summit, where Lula would be. Internally, PL continues to manage the family crisis: Flávio's campaign was surprised by the impact of Michelle Bolsonaro's video, a topic that AtlasIntel on July 1 intends to measure directly.

In the government camp, resource coordination advanced: Lula released R$ 520 million for campaign advertising before the election, more than double what Bolsonaro allocated in 2022. On the institutional agenda, the Master/Vorcaro case remained open, with André Mendonça preparing the request to the Attorney General's Office regarding the financing of the film "Dark Horse," and the Federal Police confirmed the conclusion, already forwarded by Moraes to the Attorney General's Office on June 29, that Flávio defamed Lula on social media by associating him with drug trafficking, a procedural step that does not alter the merits of the case.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × survey (level): the convergent movement of two days narrowed the gap, but did not eliminate the level divergence. The market still prices in +31.55pp in favor of Lula, against only +3pp in the runoff of BTG Pactual/Nexus. Real money moved closer to the survey, but remains far more skeptical about Flávio's actual chances than declared voting intention suggests.

Market × survey (Renan): the largest divergence on the Dashboard persists. Renan Santos is at 12.45% in the winner market and at 57% in the third-place sub-market, while BTG Pactual/Nexus and PoderData/Aya measure him at 4% in the 1º turno. The market treats him as likely third place, not as a competitive candidate for victory.

Market × narrative (Michelle): on a day when Michelle's video against Flávio resumed resonating and even surprised the senator's campaign, the market moved in the opposite direction to media attention: Michelle fell to 2.45% (↓0.70pp). Real money did not price the family crisis as a gain for her candidacy.

In summary

Second day of convergence: the market pulled back Lula to 55.50% (↓1.00pp) and raised Flávio to 23.95% (↑0.40pp), narrowing the gap to +31.55pp, already 3.70pp below the record of June 28, in a book that totals over USD 107M.
Without a new national survey (AtlasIntel was postponed to July 1), the press detailed the BTG Pactual/Nexus cuts of June 29: Flávio leads in the South and North/Central-West and has 60% among evangelicals, while Lula maintains the Northeast but fluctuates ~5pp in the region.
In the third way, Caiado is expected to officially nominate Kassab as running mate in a pure PSD ticket this Wednesday (July 1) and rises to 1.55% in the market; Michelle falls to 2.45% despite the video against Flávio in the spotlight.—

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched June 30 17:03 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).

June 30, 2026