July 1, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 95 days from the 1º turno, Polymarket reversed the convergence movement of the previous two days. Lula rose to 57.50% (↑2.00pp, USD 7.1M) and Flávio Bolsonaro fell to 22.95% (↓1.00pp, USD 7.2M), so the presidential gap widened again to +34.55pp (↑3.00pp), now just 0.70pp away from the record of +35.25pp registered on June 28. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 107M, a sign that the adjustment occurs in a liquid book. Unlike the recent decline, today's movement came accompanied by a national poll in the same direction (Section 2).

The third name in the market had a two-sided day: Renan Santos fell to 10.45% (↓2.00pp, USD 7.7M) in the winner market, the largest accumulated volume in the presidential market, but surged in the sub-market for 3rd place in the 1º turno to 65% (↑8.00pp, USD 120k), opening a lead over Caiado (14%) and Zema (8.5%). At the bottom of the race, Caiado fell to 1.35% (↓0.20pp, USD 4.5M) even on the day he formalized his running mate (Section 3), Zema rose slightly to 1.15% (↑0.10pp, USD 4.1M) and Haddad remained stable at 0.95% (USD 6.0M). Michelle Bolsonaro fell to 2.05% (↓0.40pp, USD 8.5M).

In the sub-market for 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio expanded his lead to 82.5% (↑4.00pp, USD 99k): even while declining in the winner market, real money consolidated him as Lula's certain challenger. In the Senate market by number of seats, PL fell to 74.5% (↓1.00pp, USD 244k), maintaining the lead. The institutional risk market STF impeachment rose slightly to 2.75% (↑0.10pp, USD 82k), staying at the floor: real money maintains a low probability of removal of a minister by impeachment before 2027.

In the market for 2026 annual inflation, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% leads with 34.95% (USD 8k), followed by the band of 4.50% to 4.99% with 28.60%; together, the two central bands account for 63.55% of the probability, keeping the macro scenario priced as controlled within the 4.50% to 5.49% range.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought the main national poll in two weeks: the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, previously delayed and now published (n≈5.000, fieldwork June 26-30, margin 1pp), the largest sample in this period. In the 1º turno, Lula marks 46.3% to Flávio 36.6% (gap +9.7pp), with Renan Santos at 7.8% and Caiado at 2.9%. In the 2º turno, Lula has 48.8% to Flávio 42.3% (gap +6.5pp). Against the previous Atlas round, Flávio fell 5.7pp in the 2º turno, amid the crisis with Michelle Bolsonaro. On approval, the online institute measured disapproval of 52.3% against approval of 45.9%, a more negative reading than the 48% to 48% plateau of recent in-person polls (Nexus/BTG Pactual, Datafolha), the historical pattern of AtlasIntel's online method.

The round moved in the same direction as the market, both toward Lula, with the institute registering that Lula expands his advantage over Flávio. In the third-way segment, AtlasIntel gives Renan (7.8%) above what in-person polls measure (Nexus/BTG Pactual and PoderData at 4%), narrowing the dashboard divergence for this name. At the state level, a survey in the Federal District pointed to 2º turno technical tie, Lula 41% to Flávio 40%.

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication expected between July 2 and July 8. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1.000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public TSE register via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3.000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. No large-scale national poll is scheduled for the next 7 days (AtlasIntel just came out); the highlight of the week is Datafolha's state round in São Paulo, presidential, governor and Senate, expected to start releasing from Sunday (July 5).

3. What the press covered

The news of the day came from the third way. Ronaldo Caiado formalized Gilberto Kassab (PSD) as vice on a single-party ticket, at an event in Brasília, formalizing the candidacy. In the announcement, Caiado stated that Flávio would lose to Lula in the runoff in a potential runoff; coverage also reports Caiado's criticism of Flávio in the ticket formalization. The press reading is that the gesture formalizes the candidacy, but does not change the competitiveness picture: AtlasIntel itself measures Caiado at 2.9% in the 1º turno.

In the opposition field, the family crisis of Bolsonarism escalated. BBC detailed how the dispute for support in Ceará triggered the war between Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro, and Folha de S.Paulo reported that Flávio repudiated an ally's comment about "women voting badly" in a meeting after Michelle's video. It was this backdrop that AtlasIntel measured directly on July 1.

In the government field, Reuters, in analysis reproduced by Blog do BG, pointed to Gen Z distancing from Lula, while on the fiscal front Union spending reached R$ 2.6 trillion in 12 months, approaching the pandemic peak. On institutional agenda, the Master/Vorcaro case remained open, with no major news impact for the day, with the reporting by the "Dark Horse" with André Mendonça. It is worth noting that party conventions begin this month, starting July 20, opening the decisive phase of the calendar.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Reversal of convergence: the market raised Lula to 57.50% (↑2.00pp) and cut Flávio to 22.95% (↓1.00pp), widening the gap to +34.55pp, 0.70pp from the record of June 28, in a book above USD 107M.
2. The national AtlasIntel (n≈5.000) gave Lula gaining (1º turno 46.3% to 36.6%; 2º turno 48.8% to 42.3%), with Flávio falling 5.7pp in the 2º turno amid crisis with Michelle; for the 1st time in two days, market and research point to the same side.
3. Caiado officially formalized Kassab as running mate in a pure PSD ticket and stated that Flávio would lose to Lula in the 2º turno; in the market, Caiado ceded to 1.35% and Renan shot up to 65% in the sub-market for 3rd place in the 1º turno.

Sources Consulted

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

• Gazeta do Povo — AtlasIntel divulga pesquisa de intenções de voto para presidente
• Poder360 — Lula tem 48,8%, e Flávio, 42,3%, em eventual 2º turno, diz pesquisa
• O Tempo — Kassab é anunciado como vice na chapa de Caiado
• Diário do Grande ABC — Ronaldo Caiado oficializa Kassab como pré-candidato a vice e critica Flávio Bolsonaro

Secondary news items (URL Google News redirect — click resolves to article):

• JOTA — Lula expands lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in new AtlasIntel round
• CartaCapital — Presidential voting intentions in the 1º turno, according to new AtlasIntel survey
• Brasil de Fato — Flávio Bolsonaro drops 5.7 percentage points in 2º turno against Lula, says Atlas/Bloomberg
• Folha de S.Paulo — Caiado announces Kassab as running mate and says Flávio would lose to Lula in 2º turno
• BBC News Brasil — How the dispute over support in Ceará sparked war between Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro
• Folha de S.Paulo — Flávio Bolsonaro rejects ally's statement about women voting poorly in meeting after Michelle video
• Blog do BG — Generation Z moving away from Lula, says Reuters analysis
• Poder360 — Lula has 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% in 2º turno in Federal District, says survey
• Blog do BG — Union spending hits R$ 2.6 trillion in 12 months and approaches pandemic peak
• [G1 — 2026 Elections: party conventions begin this month; see how it works](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi-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?oc=5 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?oc=5)

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 1, 15:00 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).