Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

At 94 days to the 1º turno, Polymarket hit a new divergence record. Lula broke 60% for the first time, at 60.50% (↑3.00pp, USD 7.2M), while Flávio Bolsonaro fell to 21.85% (↓1.10pp, USD 7.2M). The presidential gap surged to +38.65pp (↑4.10pp), 3.40pp above the previous peak of +35.25pp recorded on June 28. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 109M, a signal that the adjustment occurs in a net book. Since there was no new national poll (Section 2), the movement was momentum-driven, not a reaction to electoral data.

The third name in the market fell slightly in the aggregate but maintained the specific sub-market: Renan Santos declined to 10.15% (↓0.30pp, USD 7.8M) in the winner market, the highest accumulated volume in the presidential race, and maintained the favorite status for 3º lugar do 1º turno at 66% (↑1.00pp, USD 124k), with a comfortable lead over Caiado (16.5%) and Zema (7.5%). At the bottom of the race, Zema was the biggest gainer, at 1.65% (↑0.50pp, USD 4.2M), while Caiado fell to 1.25% (↓0.10pp, USD 4.6M) and Haddad rose to 1.05% (↑0.10pp, USD 6.1M). Michelle Bolsonaro was at 2.10% (USD 8.6M).

In the sub-market for 2º lugar do 1º turno, Flávio declined to 78.5% (↓4.00pp, USD 115k): while still following as Lula's certain opponent, real money reduced his share on the day. In the Senate market by number of seats, the PL fell to 73.5% (↓1.00pp, USD 244k), leading. The institutional risk market STF impeachment remained stable at 2.75% (USD 82k), staying at the floor: real money keeps the probability of removing a minister by impeachment before 2027 low, even with the new front of the Master case in the news (Section 3).

In the market for 2026 annual inflation, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% leads with 35.45% (USD 8k), followed by the band of 4.50% to 4.99% with 27.05%; together, the two central ranges sum 62.50% of the probability, keeping the macro scenario priced within the interval of 4.50% to 5.49%, with a slight upward shift from the previous day.

2. What the polling institutes registered

The day brought no new national poll: the latest national poll remains AtlasIntel/Bloomberg from July 1 (n=5,000, fieldwork June 25-30), which showed 1º turno Lula 46.3% to Flávio 36.6% and 2º turno Lula 48.8% to Flávio 42.3%, with government approval at 45.9% and disapproval at 52.3%. The repercussion of this round continued, with the reading that the spillover from the Master case and the crisis with Michelle take a toll on Lula and Flávio's candidacies (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, via Seu Dinheiro).

At the state level, Rio de Janeiro gained a poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie in Rio (Poder360), with Lula at 41.6% and Flávio at 38.6% (Band), a Empate técnico in a state historically favorable to the right. State polls do not enter AFOS Analytics' national panel, but they help contextualize the divergence between the market gap and the race on the ground.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication expected between July 3 and July 8. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Register	Conf.
July 3	Instituto Gazeta 🔥	3,000	state	TSE register	0.7
July 3	Ranking Brasil	2,000	state	TSE register	0.7
July 3	PNH	1,500	state	TSE register	0.6
July 5	Datafolha (SP)	1,608	state	TSE register	0.9
July 6	Veritá	2,000	state	TSE register	0.5
July 7	Opinião	2,000	state	TSE register	0.6

Source: public TSE register via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. There is no large-scale national poll scheduled for the next 7 days; the highlight is Datafolha's state round in São Paulo (presidential, government, and Senate), expected to start releasing from Sunday (July 5).

3. What the press covered

On the institutional front, the Master case gained new momentum. Estadão revealed, based on material extracted by the PF, that lawyer Viviane Barci de Moraes, wife of minister Alexandre de Moraes, personally sent Daniel Vorcaro, of Banco Master, a draft contract for R$129 million via WhatsApp in January 2024 for legal defense services for the institution before the Central Bank, the Revenue Service, and Congress. According to the report, based on data from the PF and the Revenue Service, the law firm would have received R$80.2 million in 2024 and 2025, with transfers halted after the bank's liquidation; the conversation was attached to the investigation probing data leaks about the minister's family. This is a development in the case, with new messages bringing the contract back to the news (Gazeta do Povo). The market, however, did not reprice the risk: STF impeachment remained stable at 2.75%.

On the opposition front, the family crisis within Bolsonarism continued as the day's main driver. BBC reported that the feud between Michelle and Flávio undermines the Bolsonaro plan to elect a Senate 'against the STF', and a political scientist noted to BBC that Lula can 'play it slow' with the prolongation of the crisis among the Bolsonaros. In parallel, Flávio told Trump that the tariff hike would give Lula a political victory and asked that the decision be postponed until after the election (Folha de S.Paulo), recognition that association with Trump is an electoral liability.

In the third way, the day saw slate definitions. Renan Santos chose reserve lieutenant-colonel Aroldo Medina as running mate on the Missão slate (Folha de S.Paulo). Still, only 3 of 13 pre-candidates for president have defined their running mate (G1), so far Caiado (Kassab), Haddad (França), and Renan (Medina), a sign that slates are still being assembled a month before party conventions.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × survey (level): the market opened a new record gap (+38.65pp) without any new national survey on the day. The last national (AtlasIntel July 1) marks +6.5pp in the 2º turno, and in Rio a survey showed Empate técnico (41.6% x 38.6%). Real money priced momentum, not electoral data, and the level divergence only widened.

Market × narrative (institutional): on a day when Estadão revealed, based on PF, a R$129 million contract between Moraes' wife and Vorcaro, the STF impeachment remained stable at 2.75%. The market treated the new front of the Master case as political noise, without raising the probability of removal of a minister.

Market × survey (Renan): the largest divergence on the dashboard persists. Renan is at 10.15% in the winner market and at 66% in the third-place sub-market, while national surveys measure him at around 4% in the 1º turno. The market treats him as likely third place, not as a competitive candidate for victory.

In summary

New record: the market broke through 60% for Lula (60.50%, ↑3.00pp) and cut Flávio to 21.85% (↓1.10pp), opening the gap to +38.65pp, 3.40pp above the peak of June 28, in a book above USD 109M, without any new national survey.
The driver was the Michelle x Flávio crisis, which the press points to as wearing down the senator and shaking the Bolsonarist plan for an anti-STF Senate; Flávio still asked Trump to postpone the tariff hike, admitting that the measure would help Lula.
The Master case gained a new front (Estadão/PF: R$129 million contract between Moraes' wife and Vorcaro), but the market did not reprice the risk, keeping STF impeachment stable at 2.75%.

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 2 15:01 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).

July 2, 2026