July 3, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 93 days from the 1º turno, Polymarket opened a new record divergence. Lula broke 61% for the first time, at 61.50% (↑1.00pp, USD 7.2M), surpassing the previous all-time high from the eve, while Flávio Bolsonaro remained stable at 21.95% (USD 7.2M). The presidential gap jumped to +39.55pp (↑1.00pp), above the previous peak of +38.65pp recorded on July 2. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 109.8M, a sign that the picture holds up in a net book. Since there was no new national poll (Section 2), the movement was momentum-driven, not a reaction to electoral data.

The third name in the market crossed a symbolic mark again: Renan Santos rose to 10.05% (↑0.10pp, USD 7.8M) in the winner market, back above 10%, still with the largest accumulated volume in the presidential. In the specific sub-market, he maintained favoritism for 3rd place in the 1º turno at 65.5%, ahead of Caiado (16.0%) and Zema (7.5%). At the bottom of the race, the third way remained on the floor: Zema at 1.05% (↓0.60pp, USD 4.2M), Caiado at 1.05% (↓0.20pp, USD 4.6M) and Haddad at 0.75% (↓0.30pp, USD 6.1M). Michelle Bolsonaro was at 2.25% (USD 8.6M).

In the sub-market for 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio fell to 73.0% (↓5.5pp, USD 115k), but remained as Lula's certain challenger. In the Senate market by number of seats, PL rose to the top at 87.5% (USD 244k), on a thin book. The institutional risk market STF impeachment remained stable at 2.75% (USD 82k), at the floor: real money keeps the probability of a minister's removal by impeachment before 2027 low, even with the Master case back in the news (Section 3).

In the 2026 annual inflation market, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 36.10% (USD 8k), followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% band with 28.30%; together, the two central ranges account for 64.40% of the probability, keeping the macro scenario priced within the 4.50% to 5.49% interval.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought no new national poll: the latest national remains AtlasIntel/Bloomberg from July 1 (n=5,000, field from June 25–30), which showed 1º turno Lula 46.3% to Flávio 36.6% and 2º turno Lula 48.8% to Flávio 42.3%, with government approval at 45.9% and disapproval at 52.3%. Before that, the reference base is Datafolha with field June 17–18, which in the 2º turno showed Flávio growing and tying with Lula (47% to 43%) (CNN Brasil). The combined reading maintains the level of divergence: while the market opens record gaps, recent in-person polls remain in Empate técnico in the 2º turno.

At the state level, the day brought a government poll: Sergio Moro leads the race for Paraná's governorship (Poder360). State polls do not enter AFOS Analytics' national panel, but help contextualize the distance between the market gap and the race on the ground.

📅 Polls calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 4–10. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication confirmed — institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: TSE public registration via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in this window). Status "registered ≠ published" — confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers. No large-scale national poll scheduled for the next 7 days; the highlight is Datafolha's state round in São Paulo (presidential, governorship, and Senate), scheduled to start rolling out from Sunday (July 5).

3. What the press covered

The news cycle of the day shifted to tariffs and sovereignty. After Flávio asked Trump to postpone the measure, Lula responded to the letter, calling the maneuver 'unacceptable sellout' (Estadão). The PT transformed the issue into the central campaign axis, calling the Bolsonaro family maneuver 'sellout' and treating sovereignty as a central banner (CartaCapital). On the other side, Flávio hit back saying that Lula 'wants to leave Brazil like Cuba' (Poder360), in an escalation where the Trump association became a point of dispute.

On the institutional front, the Master case returned to news coverage. Justice Dias Toffoli imposed absolute secrecy on Daniel Vorcaro's defense petition at the STF (Migalhas), a single-justice ruling that elevates to the maximum level the restriction on a complaint contesting the PF operation. According to coverage, the Federal Police signaled concern in preserving evidence and avoiding case dismissal (CNN Brasil). The market, however, did not reprice the risk: STF impeachment remained stable at 2.75%.

In opposition circles, the family crisis of Bolsonarism continued as a backdrop. Amid friction with Michelle and a sexist remark from an ally, Flávio stated that 'it's the women who call the shots' (Folha de S.Paulo). Abroad, a development entered the campaign radar: with the proclamation of victory in Peru, Flávio congratulated Keiko Fujimori, elected president, saying that 'the next piece is Brazil' (G1). On the electoral calendar, party conventions begin still this month (INFOSAJ), starting July 20, with only 3 of the 13 pre-candidates having a running mate defined.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. New record: the market brought Lula above 61% (61.50%, ↑1.00pp) and the gap surged to +39.55pp (↑1.00pp), above the July 2 peak, on a book above USD 109.8M and without a new national poll. Renan returned above 10% (10.05%).
2. The day's driver was the tariff shock: Lula called Flávio's letter to Trump 'unacceptable sellout' and the PT made sovereignty the axis of the campaign (Estadão, CartaCapital), while Flávio struck back saying Lula 'wants to leave Brazil like Cuba' (Poder360).
3. Toffoli imposed absolute secrecy on Vorcaro's defense request at the STF and the PF signaled concern in avoiding nullification (Migalhas, CNN Brasil), but the market did not reprice the risk, keeping the STF impeachment stable at 2.75%. Abroad, Keiko Fujimori was proclaimed president of Peru (G1).—

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

• Migalhas — Dias Toffoli imposes absolute secrecy on Vorcaro's defense petition at STF

• CNN Brasil — Toffoli imposes secrecy on Vorcaro case at STFSecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Estadão — Lula reacts to Flávio's letter about US tariff hike: 'It is unacceptable sellout'

• CartaCapital — PT calls Bolsonaro articulation 'sellout' and treats sovereignty as axis

• Poder360 — Flávio Bolsonaro says Lula 'wants to leave Brazil like Cuba'

• Folha de S.Paulo — 'It's the women who command,' says Flávio Bolsonaro after strain with Michelle and ally's sexist remark

• G1 — Flávio Bolsonaro congratulates Keiko Fujimori, elected president of Peru: 'next piece is Brazil'

• CNN Brasil — Flávio Bolsonaro grows and ties with Lula in runoff, says Datafolha

• Poder360 — Sergio Moro leads race for Paraná governorship, says survey

• INFOSAJ — 2026 Elections: party conventions begin this month; see how candidate selection works

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 3, 19:07 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).