July 5, 2026

1. Prediction market

At 91 days until the 1º turno, Polymarket spent a Sunday practically flat. Lula remained stable at 60.50% (USD 7.2M) and Flávio Bolsonaro declined slightly to 22.30% (↓0.10pp, USD 7.2M), so the presidential gap rose marginally to +38.20pp (↑0.10pp), still below the peak of +39.55pp recorded on July 3. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 110M, in a net book where the absence of movement reflects the lack of new electoral data (Section 2), not lack of business.

The most visible shift of the day occurred in a sub-market. In the 2nd place of the 1º turno, Flávio fell to 72.5% (↓6.0pp, USD 142k), while Renan Santos rose to 11.4% in that same market, inheriting part of what the senator ceded. Flávio continues with a comfortable lead as Lula's certain challenger, but the share lost is the day's record. In the winner's market, Renan fell to 9.85% (↓0.10pp, USD 7.8M), below 10%, still with the highest accumulated volume in the presidential race, and maintained favoritism for 3rd place in the 1º turno at 62.5%, ahead of Caiado (12.5%) and Zema (6.5%, ↓1.0pp).

At the bottom of the race, Michelle Bolsonaro stood at 1.65% (USD 8.6M), Caiado at 1.05% (USD 4.6M), Zema at 1.05% (USD 4.2M), Camilo Santana rose to 0.95% (USD 3.8M) and Haddad stood at 0.80% (USD 6.1M). In the Senate market by number of seats, PL remained at the top at 87.5% (USD 250k), and the institutional risk market STF impeachment remained stable at 2.75% (USD 82k), at the floor: real money keeps the probability of removing a minister by impeachment before 2027 low.

In the 2026 annual inflation market, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 37.80% (USD 8k), followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% band with 28.40%; together, the two central ranges account for 66.20% of the probability, keeping the macro scenario priced within the 4.50% to 5.49% range.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought no new national presidential survey: the latest national remains AtlasIntel/Bloomberg from July 1 (n=5,000, field from June 25 to 30), which showed 1º turno Lula 46.3% to Flávio 36.6% and 2º turno Lula 48.8% to Flávio 42.3%. Before that, the reference base is the Datafolha national survey with field June 17–19 (published June 20), which in the 2º turno showed Lula 47% to 43% against Flávio, technical tie (CNN Brasil). The combined reading maintains the level divergence: while the market still gives a wide margin, the recent in-person surveys remain in Empate técnico in the 2º turno.

The day's news came from the state level. The Datafolha São Paulo survey showed Tarcísio ahead in the race for governor with 46% to 30% over Haddad (Folha de S.Paulo), with approval of Tarcísio's administration at 45% and security and health as the top problems cited (Estadão). In the same survey, Haddad appears with the highest rejection among São Paulo voters, 47% (O Globo). Being a state-level survey, the data sizes the PT challenge on the São Paulo platform, but does not alter the dashboard's national base.

📅 Survey calendar — next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 6 and July 12. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in this window). The surveys registered for the next 7 days are all state-level scope, none national presidential. The table lists those with sample ≥ 1,500. Status "registered ≠ published"; confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

In the opposition camp, the tariff issue returned to the center of the agenda with Flávio's trip to the United States. The senator landed in the US to participate in a hearing on the new tariffs against Brazil (O Tempo) and, upon arrival, criticized Lula, saying he went to defend Brazilians (O Globo). According to the report, Flávio stated that Lula wants Trump's tariff increase to gain political leverage (O Globo), repositioning the rhetoric after having asked Trump in June to postpone the measure until after the election.

The limitations of the right-wing arrangement appeared in the day's analysis: a report highlighted why Tarcísio has little incentive to fully dive into Flávio's campaign (Estadão), a sign that São Paulo's strongest right-wing platform hesitates to expose itself. From the government and opposition together, Lula and Flávio escalated the dispute in public security (Acesse Política), both competing over the maximum-security prison agenda as an electoral asset.

On the calendar, internal party political advertising was allowed starting this Sunday (Portal O Dia), one day after the rules on electoral blackout took effect on Saturday (Claudemir Pereira), imposing restrictions on public officials three months before the 1º turno. On the polling front, outlets highlighted that on the right, only Flávio can rival Lula (Revista Oeste), a reading that echoes the advantage the market gives Lula.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Sunday stalled: without a new national presidential survey, the market barely moved, with Lula stable at 60.50% and the gap rising slightly to +38.20pp (↑0.10pp), still below the peak of +39.55pp on July 3, in a book above USD 110M.
2. The only visible movement was in a sub-market: Flávio lost part of 2nd place in the 1º turno (72.5%, ↓6.0pp) to Renan (11.4%), internal reallocation within the opposition field. The news outside the market was the Datafolha for SP (Tarcísio 46% x Haddad 30% in government), a state survey.
3. Flávio traveled to the US for a hearing on the tariff hike and accused Lula of wanting the increase for political gain (O Globo), while the market did not reprice the institutional (STF impeach stable at 2.75%) and the level divergence with the tight 2º turno from in-person surveys remains the central signal that AFOS Analytics is tracking.—

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• O Globo — Datafolha: Haddad has highest rejection among São Paulo voters, with 47%

• Folha de S.Paulo — PT fears Tarcísio's victory in 1º turno in São Paulo, but assesses that there is still room for Haddad to grow

• CNN Brasil — In the 2º turno, Lula has 47% against 43% of Flávio Bolsonaro, says DatafolhaSecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Folha de S.Paulo — Datafolha: Tarcísio leads in SP with 46%, and Haddad has 30%

• Estadão — Datafolha: Tarcísio leads dispute for SP governorship with 46%; Haddad has 30%

• O Tempo — Flávio Bolsonaro will participate in hearing in the US on new tariffs against Brazil

• O Globo — Flávio Bolsonaro lands in the US and criticizes Lula

• O Globo — Flávio says in the US that Lula wants Trump's tariff surge for political gain

• Estadão — Why Tarcísio has little incentive to dive headfirst into Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign

• Acesse Política — Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro escalate dispute in public security area

• Portal O Dia — 2026 Elections: internal party advertising is allowed as of today (5th)

• Claudemir Pereira — Rules of the electoral blackout period began to take effect this Saturday (4th)

• Revista Oeste — On the right, only Flávio can rival Lula, surveys show

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 5, 16:54 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).