July 4, 2026

1. Prediction market

92 days until the 1º turno, Polymarket gave back part of the record opened the day before. Lula fell to 60.50% (↓1.00pp, USD 7.2M), while Flávio Bolsonaro rose to 22.40% (↑0.45pp, USD 7.2M). The presidential gap fell to +38.10pp (↓1.45pp), below the peak of +39.55pp registered on July 3. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 110M, a sign that the adjustment is occurring in a net book. Since there was no new national poll (Section 2), the movement was market-driven, not a reaction to electoral data.

The third name in the market crossed a symbolic mark again in the opposite direction: Renan Santos fell to 9.95% (↓0.10pp, USD 7.8M) in the winner market, back below 10%, still with the highest accumulated volume in the presidential. In the specific sub-market, he maintained the favorite status for 3rd place in the 1º turno at 62.5%, ahead of Caiado (12.5%) and Zema (7.8%). At the bottom of the race, Michelle Bolsonaro ceded to 1.65% (↓0.60pp, USD 8.6M), Zema stood at 1.05% (USD 4.2M), Caiado at 1.00% (USD 4.6M) and Haddad at 0.80% (USD 6.1M).

In the sub-market for 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio recovered 78.5% (↑5.5pp, USD 115k), reinforcing his standing as Lula's certain opponent. In the Senate market by number of seats, PL remained at the top at 87.5% (USD 244k), in a thin book. The institutional risk market STF impeachment remained stable at 2.80% (USD 82k), at the floor: real money keeps the probability of removing a justice through impeachment before 2027 low.

In the 2026 annual inflation market, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 36.10% (USD 8k), followed by the 4.50% to 4.99% band with 28.40%; together, the two central ranges total 64.50% of probability, maintaining the macro scenario priced within the 4.50% to 5.49% interval.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought no new national poll: the latest national remains AtlasIntel/Bloomberg from July 1 (n=5,000, field from June 25–30), which showed 1º turno Lula 46.3% to Flávio 36.6% and 2º turno Lula 48.8% to Flávio 42.3%. Before that, the reference base is Datafolha from field June 17–18 (published June 20), which in the 2º turno showed Lula 47% to 43% over Flávio, a technical tie (CNN Brasil). The combined reading maintains the level divergence: while the market still shows a large gap, recent in-person polls remain in Empate técnico in the 2º turno.

Three months until the 1º turno, outlets published roundups of who leads the polls (Terra), without bringing unprecedented national numbers, merely consolidating the known picture of Lula ahead and Empate técnico in the 2º turno.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE scheduled for publication between July 5 and July 11. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000 (none in this window). There are 21 state polls with sample ≥ 1,000 registered for publication between July 5 and 11; the table lists the 13 with sample ≥ 1,500, and none are national in scope. Status "registered ≠ published"; confirming actual release requires two primary sources before citing numbers. The highlight is Datafolha's state round in São Paulo (field July 1-3), expected to start coming out on Sunday (July 5).

3. What the press covered

The day's news driver was the electoral calendar. The electoral blackout rules began to take effect this Saturday (TSE), three months before the 1º turno, imposing restrictions on public agents: prohibition of institutional advertising, restrictions on appointments and voluntary transfers of resources, measures affecting Lula, governors and mayors and seeking equal opportunities among candidates. The period extends until October 25 in case of a runoff (Diário Digital).

In government and opposition circles, the tariff hike remained on the agenda. Lula again criticized Flávio and Jair Bolsonaro, saying that the 2026 elections will be the 'year of truth' (Poder360), maintaining sovereignty as the campaign's central axis following Flávio's request to Trump to postpone the tariff hike. Meanwhile, the family crisis within Bolsonarism remained on the radar: amid tension with Michelle and a sexist remark from an ally, Flávio stated that 'it's the women who call the shots' (Folha de S.Paulo).

In party coordination, an analysis indicated that the party switching window strengthens the PL, weakens the Centrão and pressures Lula (Gazeta do Povo), a move that strengthens the opposition's largest party. In the PT, Lula delegated the decision on vice presidential and Senate candidates to Haddad, who is seeking the center (CNN Brasil), a sign that the ticket arrangement in São Paulo gains weight in national strategy.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Reversal: the market returned part of the record, with Lula pulling back to 60.50% (↓1.00pp) and the gap falling to +38.10pp (↓1.45pp), below the July 3 peak of +39.55pp, in a book above USD 110M and with no new national survey. Flávio rose to 22.40% and recovered 2nd place in the 1º turno (78.5%).
2. The driver of the day was the calendar: the electoral blackout began, imposing restrictions on public agents three months before the 1º turno (TSE), while Lula returned to criticizing Flávio over the tariff issue, saying that 2026 will be the 'year of truth' (Poder360).
3. The market did not reprice the institutional factor (STF impeach stable at 2.80%), and the level divergence with the tight 2º turno in in-person surveys (AtlasIntel July 1, Datafolha 47×43) remains the central signal AFOS Analytics is monitoring.—

Sources Consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

• TSE — Electoral Blackout imposes limits on public officials three months before the 2026 Elections
• Folha de S.Paulo — 'It's the women who call the shots,' says Flávio Bolsonaro after strain with Michelle and ally's remarks
• CNN Brasil — In the 2º turno, Lula has 47% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 43%, says Datafolha

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• Diário Digital — Regras do período de defeso eleitoral começam a valer neste sábado
• Poder360 — Lula criticizes Flávio and Jair Bolsonaro and says 2026 elections will be the 'year of truth'
• Gazeta do Povo — Party switching window strengthens PL, weakens centrist coalition and pressures Lula
• CNN Brasil — Lula delegates decision on vice and Senate to Haddad, who seeks the center
• Terra — 2026 Elections: see who leads the polls 90 days before the election

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 04 20:43 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).