July 6, 2026

1. Prediction market

90 days before the 1º turno, Polymarket resumed its upward movement toward the record, reversing the weekend pullback. Lula returned to the peak of 61.50% (↑1.00pp, USD 7.2M) and Flávio Bolsonaro stood at 22.45% (↑0.15pp, USD 7.2M), so the presidential gap rose to +39.05pp (↑0.85pp), just 0.50pp from the record of +39.55pp registered on July 3. The total accumulated volume in the presidential market exceeds USD 110.4M, in a net book. Since there was no new national poll (Section 2), the movement was momentum-driven, following an adverse news flow to the opposition (Section 3), not a reaction to electoral data.

The third name in the market moved in the opposite direction: Renan Santos fell to 9.55% (↓0.30pp, USD 7.9M) in the winner market, below 10%, still holding the largest accumulated volume in the presidential. In the specific sub-market, he maintained favoritism for 3º lugar do 1º turno at 63.0%, ahead of Caiado (12.5%) and Zema (6.5%). At the bottom of the race, Michelle Bolsonaro stood at 1.55% (USD 8.7M), Zema at 1.15% (USD 4.3M), Camilo Santana at 1.15% (USD 3.8M), Haddad at 0.95% (USD 6.1M) and Caiado at 0.95% (USD 4.7M).

In the sub-market for 2º lugar do 1º turno, Flávio recovered 77.0% (↑4.5pp, USD 142k), reinforcing his status as Lula's certain opponent, with Renan at 11.3% there. In the Senate market by number of seats, PL remained at the top at 87.5% (USD 250k). The institutional risk market STF impeachment remained stable at 2.75% (USD 82k), at the floor: real money keeps the probability of removal of a minister by impeachment before 2027 low.

In the market for 2026 annual inflation, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% leads with 39.95% (USD 8k), followed by the band of 4.50% to 4.99% with 24.60%; together, the two central bands account for 64.55% of the probability, maintaining the macro scenario priced within the 4.50% to 5.49% range.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day brought no new national presidential poll: the latest national remains AtlasIntel/Bloomberg from July 1 (n=5,000, field from June 25 to 30), which showed 1º turno Lula 46.3% to Flávio 36.6% and 2º turno Lula 48.8% to Flávio 42.3%. Before that, the reference base is the Datafolha national poll with field June 17-19 (published June 20), which in the 2º turno showed Lula 47% to 43% over Flávio, technical tie (CNN Brasil). The combined reading maintains the level divergence: while the market returned to giving a big lead, recent in-person polls remain in Empate técnico in the 2º turno.

At the state level, in Rio Grande do Sul a poll showed Flávio ahead in the 1º turno for president, with 44% to 25.2% over Lula (R7), a reminder of the strength of the Bolsonarist core in the South and the regional disconnect from the national picture. Media outlets also signaled that the upcoming national rounds from Ideia and Gerp are underway, with Ideia testing the performance of Michelle Bolsonaro (Exame, CartaCapital).

📅 Poll calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 7 and July 13. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000 (none in this window). No national presidential poll scope is registered for the window; the press signals upcoming national rounds from Gerp and Ideia (Exame), which is why both appear with scope to be confirmed. Status "registered ≠ published"; confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

On the institutional front, the opposition faced a new round of legal setbacks. The PGR requested that the PF hear Flávio Bolsonaro in an inquiry for the crime of slander against Lula (G1), in a development of the inquiry that Moraes forwarded to the PGR on June 29. In parallel, Lula escalated the tone regarding the letter that Flávio took to the United States requesting a postponement of the tariff increase: according to Canal MyNews, the president called the senator a traitor to the nation following the letter to the US (Canal MyNews).

From the opposition side, Flávio opened an electoral front: he launched the campaign's first jingle, focusing on a spiritual battle against Lula (Gazeta do Povo). The day's one-two punch, a new legal front combined with the start of the campaign, sums up the senator's moment, under pressure institutionally and active on the campaign trail.

In the Master case, focus shifted inward within the opposition itself. The web of those involved came to have Ciro Nogueira as a target (CNN Brasil), while those under investigation, from Ciro Nogueira to Jaques Wagner, attempt to label the case as a new Lava-Jato (O Globo). On the macro-fiscal front, the Senate blocked the homeschooling bill and other government priorities, which face pressure from the recess schedule (Valor, Folha PE).

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Resumption: the market reversed the weekend give-back, with Lula back at the peak of 61.50% (↑1.00pp) and the gap at +39.05pp (↑0.85pp), 0.50pp from the record of +39.55pp from July 3, in a book above USD 110.4M and without new national polling. Flávio recovered second place in the 1º turno (77.0%).
2. Today's flow was institutional and adverse to the opposition: the PGR requested that PF hear Flávio in an inquiry for defamation against Lula, a development of the case forwarded by Moraes on June 29 (G1), and the Master case gained a new target in Ciro Nogueira (CNN, O Globo). Flávio responded from the campaign platform, launching the first campaign jingle (Gazeta do Povo).
3. The market did not reprice the institutional (STF impeach stable at 2.75%), and the level divergence with the tight 2º turno from in-person polls (AtlasIntel July 1, Datafolha 47x43), added to the regional disconnect (RS 44x25.2 pro-Flávio), remains the central signal that AFOS Analytics monitors.—

Sources Consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

• O Globo — From Ciro Nogueira to Jaques Wagner, targets attempt to label Master case as new 'Lava-Jato'

• CNN Brasil — In the 2º turno, Lula has 47% against 43% of Flávio Bolsonaro, says DatafolhaSecondary articles (Google News redirect URL — click resolves to article):

• G1 — PGR defends that PF hear Flávio Bolsonaro in investigation for slander crime against Lula

• Estadão — PGR requests that investigation against Flávio Bolsonaro for slander against Lula return to PF

• Canal MyNews — Lula calls Flávio Bolsonaro 'traitor to the nation' after letter to the USA

• Gazeta do Povo — Flávio launches first jingle and focuses on 'spiritual battle' against Lula

• CNN Brasil — With Ciro Nogueira as target, understand the 'web' of those involved in the Master case

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched 06/Jul 17:28 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).