July 12, 2026

1. Prediction market

Sunday was a period of consolidation on Polymarket. Lula closed at 60.50% (USD 7.3M accumulated volume), stable for the third consecutive day, and Flávio Bolsonaro rose marginally to 23.25% (↑0.10pp, USD 7.3M), fourth day of slow recovery. The gap between the two stood at +37.25pp (↓0.10pp). The total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals USD 112.2M, the amount of real money underlying these price formations.

The day's movement was Renan Santos, and it was downward. In the presidential market, he fell to 10.25% (↓1.10pp, USD 8.0M, the largest accumulated individual volume in the presidential market), returning much of the 3.10pp gain he had accumulated over two days. That gain came without an identifiable triggering event, and there is no evidence of an event explaining the decline: the movement is read here as a band exit driven by momentum, not as a reaction to news.

What Renan did not return was the structural position. In the sub-market for 3rd place in the 1º turno, he expanded his lead to 66.50% (↑5.0pp, USD 0.14M), opening distance from Ronaldo Caiado, who fell back to 15.50% (↓0.5pp, USD 0.03M). The market corrected the winner's price and, at the same time, reinforced the thesis that he is the third way candidate. In the 2nd place in the 1º turno, Flávio expanded his dominance to 78.50% (↑2.0pp, USD 0.16M), with Renan at 11.20% (USD 1.04M).

In the presidential market, Jair Bolsonaro fluctuated: he reached 2.10% in late afternoon and returned the gain, closing at 1.65% (↑0.15pp, USD 5.0M). In the tail, Caiado 1.60% (USD 4.8M), Michelle Bolsonaro 1.05% (USD 8.9M), Zema 0.95% (USD 4.3M) and Haddad 0.75% (USD 6.2M). Outside the top two, no name exceeds 1.65%: the bipolarization has not opened.

In institutional sub-markets, nothing moved. Impeachment of STF minister before 2027 remains stuck at the floor, at 2.75% (USD 0.08M), with no reaction to a day full of judicial decisions. In the Senate by number of seats, PL maintains 87.50% (USD 0.25M), against 11.55% for MDB (USD 0.01M). In 2026 inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 33.40% (USD 0.01M).

2. What the institutes registered

The day's news was not a price movement, it was data. The national Gerp/AESP published on July 8 (n=2,000, fieldwork July 3–7, protocol BR-03067/2026) entered the dashboard. It had been absent due to a scope classification error in TSE ingestion, identified and corrected on July 12. The numbers: tie in the 1º turno, Lula 36% × Flávio 36%, and Flávio winning the 2º turno, 45% × 42%, within the 2.2pp margin of error. It is the first national of the cycle to put Flávio ahead in the runoff.

The methodological caveat comes before the headline. Gerp is a smaller-scale institute, with reliability 3 on the dashboard, and was already an outlier on June 24, consistently more favorable to Flávio than the consensus of top-tier institutes (Datafolha, Indexa, BTG/Nexus, CNT/MDA), all with Lula comfortable. One poll does not make a trend. What it does is break unanimity: on the same July 8, Meio/Ideia (n=1,500) gave Lula 40.4% × 32% in the 1º turno and 45% × 40% in the 2º turno. Two nationals, same date, opposite winners in the runoff. VEJA registered the week's difficulty in reading the numbers in a balance of the figures.

In the other seven 2º turno scenarios from [Gerp](/en/glossary#gerp) itself, Lula wins all, from Michelle (45% × 41%) to Renan Santos (41% × 30%). Caiado has the smallest margin of defeat among alternative opponents (40% × 36%), and Renan the largest.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with scheduled publication between July 13–17. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public query.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. No survey in this window has sample ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual release requires verification of two primary sources before citing numbers. Four nationals release between July 13–16, the first real convergence test since July 8.

3. What the press covered

The day was dominated by two legal fronts affecting the right-wing field. In the first, minister Flávio Dino ordered the blocking of up to R$ 6.15 million from Eduardo Cunha, investigated for directing parliamentary amendments despite having no mandate since 2016. The decision was signed on July 6 and made public on July 12 (G1). The decision points to evidence that Cunha used a Republicanos deputy to direct the resources. He rejected the clandestine mandate thesis and said he will challenge the decision. It is the same inquiry that blocked R$ 119 million from Valdemar Costa Neto, president of the PL, and the president of the Chamber, Hugo Motta, expressed dissatisfaction with that decision.

On the second front, Jair Bolsonaro's letter read by Flávio on July 11 became a legal risk for the author himself. Jair Bolsonaro is serving humanitarian home detention, extended by Alexandre de Moraes on July 3, 2026, with an express prohibition against speaking on social media, directly or through third parties. Deputy Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ) filed a request with Moraes on July 11 to revoke the home detention and return to closed regime, plus a fine of R$ 100 thousand to Flávio (Estadão). This is a request, not a decision: the STF has not deliberated on the matter. The G1 reports that the letter generated criticism from candidates and troubled Michelle Bolsonaro.

In the electoral arena, the letter did not produce the unity it intended. Caiado said it shows the fragility of Flávio's candidacy and, according to CartaCapital, ironized that leadership is not inherited. The Republicanos denied having closed support and indicated neutrality, blocking a party front, and Valdemar Costa Neto said the family crisis continues.

On the government side, Lula is to launch his reelection campaign in São Bernardo do Campo (Folha). The August date still diverges among outlets and is not treated here as confirmed. On social media, two reports tell complementary stories: Poder360 reports that Flávio gained three times more new followers than Lula in the first half, while CNN Brasil points out that Lula leads in total follower base and Flávio in engagement. Flow and stock measure different things.

4. Divergencies of the day

In summary

1. The price held, the data moved. Lula stable at 60.50% and gap at +37.25pp. What changed the day's picture was the entry of a survey that was missing, not the market.

2. Stated intent ceased to be unanimous. With the Gerp/AESP from July 8 on the dashboard, there exists a national that ties the 1º turno and gives the 2º turno to Flávio. It is an outlier and flagged as such, but the reading that all surveys point to the same side is dead.

3. The week decides. Four national surveys registered with TSE come out between July 13 and 16, including Quaest (n=2.004) and PoderData (n=2.400). This is the first convergence test since July 8, and it answers which of the two readings of the divergence holds.

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

• G1 - Dino cites nomination of amendments by Eduardo Cunha even without mandate and orders blocking up to R$ 6 million
• O Globo - STF decision points to evidence that Eduardo Cunha used Republicanos deputy to direct amendments
• O Globo - Cunha rejects exercising 'clandestine' mandate to send amendments and says he will question Dino's decision
• Estadão - Lindbergh requests revocation of Jair Bolsonaro's house arrest by letter read by Flávio
• Estadão - Motta expresses 'disagreement' against Dino's decision to block Valdemar's assets
• G1 - Bolsonaro's letter puts house arrest at risk with PT appeal to STF
• G1 - Republicanos denies closing support to Flávio Bolsonaro and indicates 'neutrality' in elections
• Folha de S.Paulo - Lula should launch reelection campaign with event in São Bernardo

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

• Folha de S.Paulo - Caiado says Bolsonaro's letter shows 'fragility' of Flávio's candidacy
• CartaCapital - Caiado ironizes Flávio after Bolsonaro's letter: 'Leadership is not inherited'
• Pleno.News - After Dino's decision, Cunha says he is unaware of irregularities
• Jornal Opção - Republicanos denies agreement with Flávio Bolsonaro and reinforces neutrality trend in 2026
• Brasil 247 - Crisis continues, says Valdemar on rift between Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro
• Poder360 - Flávio gains 3 times more followers than Lula in first half
• CNN Brasil - Lula leads in followers on social networks, and Flávio in engagement, report says
• VEJA - Electoral surveys: how the Lula x Flávio race stands after this week's numbers

Technical sources: Polymarket (live odds via AFOS proxy, fetched July 12 18:04 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral surveys).