July 13, 2026

1. Prediction market

83 days from the 1º turno, the top of Polymarket has not moved. Lula closed the fourth consecutive day at 60.50% (USD 7.3M accumulated volume) and Flávio Bolsonaro rose to 23.85% (↑0.60pp, USD 7.4M), with the presidential gap narrowing to +36.65pp (↓0.60pp). Total accumulated volume in the presidential market stands at USD 112.5M. The contrast is the data point: the day brought the most adverse polling of the cycle for Lula, and his winner contract did not move a basis point.

The day's movement happened in the tail, and it is about succession, not the main race. In Presidential market, Michelle Bolsonaro doubled, from 1.05% to 2.25% (↑1.20pp, USD 8.9M), the largest relative variation on the panel. In the opposite direction, Jair Bolsonaro fell from 1.65% to 1.05% (↓0.60pp, USD 5.0M). Both movements occurred the same day the STF cut contact between father and son (Section 3). There is no way to establish causality from price, and the Daily does not claim it: we register the temporal coincidence and the fact that the market repriced the internal dispute within the Bolsonaro camp without touching the top.

Flávio posted the largest single-day jump in the Second place in first round sub-market, to 83.50% (↑5.0pp, USD 175 thousand): the condition of certain challenger to Lula is more priced in than ever, on a day when he accumulated institutional wear.

In the third way, Renan Santos remained practically flat in Winner, at 10.05% (↓0.20pp, USD 8.1M, the largest individual volume among living contenders), and expanded favoritism in Third place in first round to 70.50% (↑4.0pp, USD 138 thousand). Ronaldo Caiado retreated in the winner market to 1.45% (↓0.15pp, USD 4.9M), but rose in the same sub-market to 16.50% (USD 33 thousand). Zema remains at the floor (0.85%, USD 4.3M) and Haddad at 0.75% (USD 6.2M).

In the institutional sub-markets, nothing. Impeachment of STF minister before 2027 remains pinned to the floor at 2.75% (USD 82 thousand), not reacting to a day of single-judge decisions and advances in the investigation into amendments. In Senate by number of seats, PL maintains 87.50% (USD 251 thousand), against 12.00% for MDB (USD 6 thousand, volume too low for firm reading). In 2026 inflation, the 5.00% to 5.49% band leads with 33.60% (USD 8 thousand).

2. What the institutes recorded

Nexus/BTG Pactual published on July 13 the first of four national polls of the week, and it is the most relevant data point of the cycle so far. Sample of 2,003 voters, fieldwork from July 10 to 12, margin of 2 points, telephone interviews in all regions, protocol BR-07981/2026. In the 1º turno, Lula 40% and Flávio 34%, with Caiado at 5%, Renan Santos at 4% and Zema at 4%. In the 2º turno, Lula 47% × Flávio 44%: three points difference, within the margin, in other words, Empate técnico (Institute website, Folha de S.Paulo, Poder360).

Two numbers from BTG/Nexus deserve attention beyond the topline. Lula fell 2pp in the 1º turno against his own round from June 29, when he was at 42%, while Flávio remained stable at 34%. And decided voting fell from 74% to 70%: there is more electorate available to switch sides than there was three weeks ago.

The weight of this poll is not in the number, it is in the source. On July 12, when incorporating Gerp/AESP from 08/Jul (Empate técnico in the 1º turno, Flávio winning the 2º turno), the mandatory caveat was that it was a smaller institute and known outlier. Nexus/BTG Pactual is first-tier and points in the same direction. Gerp is no longer isolated. The range of the 2º turno today goes from 3pp loss (Gerp) to 6.5pp victory (AtlasIntel from 01/Jul), passing through Empate técnico (Nexus/BTG Pactual) and 5pp victory (Meio/Ideia of Jul/08). It is the largest dispersion among institutes recorded in this cycle, and it is information, not noise.

📅 Poll calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with scheduled publication between Jul/14 and Jul/20. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. No poll in the window has sample ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers. Three nationals remain, and Genial/Quaest on Jul/15 is the one with highest methodological reliability of the four.

3. Press coverage

The institutional fact of the day is a ruling, not a request. On July 13, Justice Alexandre de Moraes suspended Flávio Bolsonaro's visits to Jair Bolsonaro for 90 days, who is serving humanitarian house arrest extended on July 3. According to the justice, the senator used the right to visit to produce and disseminate the political letter read on July 11, which violates the prohibition on the former president from expressing himself on social media through third parties. The suspension runs until mid-October, a deadline that covers the final stretch of the campaign, and the defense has 48 hours to explain itself. Moraes also ordered an investigation into possible early electoral propaganda (O Globo, G1, BBC). The house arrest was not revoked. According to lawyers quoted by O Globo, the benefit may be lost if it is proven that the former president knew of the disclosure.

The gesture intended to consecrate the succession ended up cutting off access to the consecrator. And within the party the fence closes: Valdemar Costa Neto and Michelle Bolsonaro surround Flávio's candidacy, while Damares Alves defends Michelle, calls for end to attacks and says Flávio "still" is her pre-candidate, with the adverb doing the heavy lifting. On the mobilization front, Javier Milei confirmed agenda with Flávio in Brazil for July 25.

On the amendments front, the Federal Police states that the Chamber adviser had approval from the House presidency to direct resources to Eduardo Cunha (Folha). It is an assertion by the PF in an ongoing investigation, not a proven fact. Cunha responded that the operation is political and that there is no proof of embezzlement.

4. Day's divergences

In summary

1. The Gerp is no longer alone. The tightening in the 2º turno that a small outlier institute signaled on 08/Jul appeared on 13/Jul at a top-tier institute. Nexus/BTG Pactual gives Empate técnico (47% × 44%) and removes 2pp from Lula in the 1º turno.

2. The market ignored the survey and priced the family. Lula stayed flat at 60.50% on the day of the most adverse data of the cycle, while Michelle doubled (2.25%) and Jair fell (1.05%), on the same day Moraes cut contact between father and son.

3. The Quaest from 15/Jul is the test. Of the four national surveys of the week, it has the highest methodological reliability. If it confirms the tightening, the +36.65pp divergence becomes the fragile number on the panel, not the robust one.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to news (anchor outlets):

• O Globo - Moraes suspends visits by Flávio Bolsonaro to his father and orders investigation into possible early campaign propaganda
• O Globo - Bolsonaro may lose home confinement benefit if it is proven he knew about letter disclosure, lawyers say
• Folha de S.Paulo - Valdemar and Michelle surround Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy
• Folha de S.Paulo - Damares defends Michelle, calls for end to attacks and says Flávio 'still' is her pre-candidate
• Folha de S.Paulo - Federal Police say adviser had Chamber presidency approval to divert amendments to Cunha
• Folha de S.Paulo - Federal Police operation on amendments is political and there is no proof of diversions, says Eduardo Cunha
• Nexus/FSB - BTG/Nexus survey of voting intentions for President of Brazil, July 13, 2026

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click to resolve to article):

• G1 - With decision, Moraes prevents Flávio from visiting Jair Bolsonaro until after the first round
• BBC News Brasil - Alexandre de Moraes' arguments for suspending Flávio's visits to Bolsonaro for 90 days
• Folha de S.Paulo - BTG/Nexus: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro maintain technical tie in the runoff, with 47% to 44%
• Poder360 - Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in the runoff, says Nexus
• Gazeta do Povo - Nexus/BTG Pactual releases new presidential poll
• VEJA - How stands the Lula vs Flávio race in the new BTG/Nexus poll
• VEJA - Milei confirms agenda with Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil and broadens clash with Lula

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 13, 21:45 BRT), TSE registration (official electoral surveys).