July 16, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market retreated on the survey day, and it is the first time in weeks that this has happened. Lula fell to 60.50% (↓1.00pp, USD 7.39M), returning exactly the previous day's gain, just hours after the national poll of the day tightened the 2º turno. The gap over Flávio stood at +35.05pp. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market amounts to USD 113.3M.

Flávio Bolsonaro remained practically flat at 25.45% (↑0.15pp, USD 7.42M) and remained the comfortable leader of the sub-market for second place in the first round, at 83.50% (↑0.50pp, USD 180 thousand). In 24 hours he received the worst and the best reading of the week and the price did not move in either direction.

In the third way, Renan Santos fell to 8.40% (↓0.10pp, USD 8.13M), accumulating a decline from 10.15% to 8.40% in two sessions, and retreated in the third place in the first round to 68.50% (↓0.50pp, USD 140 thousand). Ronaldo Caiado was at 1.25% (↓0.15pp, USD 4.93M) and rose to 14.00% in third place; Romeu Zema fell to 0.65% (↓0.15pp, USD 4.39M). Michelle Bolsonaro rose to 1.40% (↑0.10pp, USD 9.03M) and Fernando Haddad to 1.25% (↑0.15pp, USD 6.23M).

In the sub-markets, the largest movement was the Senate by seats: PL rose to 86.00% (↑1.50pp, USD 252 thousand), against 11.75% for MDB (USD 10 thousand). The impeachment of STF minister rose to 3.35% (↑0.55pp, USD 84 thousand) and remains near the floor. It is worth noting the scale caveat: these books sum to hundreds of thousands of dollars, against the USD 7.4M of the presidential market, so a 0.55pp variation there requires much less money than the same variation in the main market.

In the 2026 inflation market, the range of 5.00% to 5.49% stood at 37.75% (USD 10 thousand) and 4.50% to 4.99% at 26.90%, summing approximately 64.7% between the two. Treasury raised on July 16 the official projection to 5.1%, above the Central Bank's target: the government's projection fell within the modal range of real money.

2. What the institutes registered

PoderData/Aya published on July 16 the national poll that the AFOS panel had been pointing to as the week's test. It showed 1º turno Lula 40% × Flávio 34% and 2º turno Lula 45% × Flávio 43%, Empate técnico by a margin of 2pp (Poder360). There are 2,400 interviews, fieldwork from July 12 to 15, telephone, in 685 municipalities across 27 states, registration BR-00059/2026. Renan Santos appeared with 6%, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema with 4% each and Augusto Cury with 3% (CNN Brasil).

The contrast with Genial/Quaest from July 15 (n=2,004, BR-07181/2026) is the finding of the day. Quaest showed 1º turno 40% × 28% and 2º turno 45% × 37% (Metrópoles). Notice what does not change: Lula marks 40% in the 1º turno and 45% in the 2º turno in both polls, identical number, in houses of opposite methodology, one in-person and the other by telephone, with overlapping fieldwork periods. The entire disagreement is about Flávio: 28% against 34% in the 1º turno and 37% against 43% in the runoff. Six points on the same candidate, in the same period.

This is a house effect, and the series allow verification rather than speculation. Within PoderData itself, Flávio went from 36% on June 25 to 34% now. Within Quaest itself, he went from 29% in June to 28%. Each house measures at a different level and each one measures a decline. The two agree on the direction and disagree on the level. Lula's approval follows the same pattern: 48% × 47% at Quaest against 42% × 51% at PoderData (Poder360), a nine-point difference in disapproval. Rejection as well: Quaest gives Flávio at 57% and Lula at 50%; PoderData ties the two at 48% (Poder360).

📅 Survey calendar - next 7 days

Surveys registered with TSE with scheduled publication between July 17 and July 23. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed - institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registration TSE via AFOS API. No survey in the window has a sample ≥ 3,000. Bold highlights the two national surveys, both on July 21, with fieldwork that only closes on July 19 and 20. Status "registered ≠ published" - confirmation of actual release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. Press Coverage

The tariff dispute with the United States dominated the agenda. The 25% tariff on Brazilian products was proposed on June 1st, following a Section 301 investigation, and confirmed by USTR on July 15th, with meat, coffee, fruits, nuts, minerals and aircraft parts excluded from the list (Poder360, CNN Brasil). Genial/Quaest measured that the majority attributes responsibility to Flávio, not Lula, for the episode (Folha de S.Paulo), and his own campaign acknowledged electoral gains for Lula on the issue, betting on reversing the burden to the PT (Folha de S.Paulo). Flávio retweeted Secretary Marco Rubio and blamed Lula, earning him the nickname "tariflávio" (Folha de S.Paulo).

In the Master case, ICL Notícias released on July 15th a photo from 2022, taken at a hotel in Rio's south zone, in which Flávio appears alongside Luiz Phillipi Machado de Moraes Mourão, the "Sicário", identified by the PF as one of the operators of the surveillance network linked to Daniel Vorcaro. He was arrested in March 2026 in Operation Compliance Zero and died days later, in PF custody, following an attempted suicide. Flávio denies knowing him and questions the origin of the image, stating that he receives photo requests daily (ICL Notícias).

On the institutional front, Alexandre de Moraes assumed the presidency of the STF during the recess and will decide on urgent matters (Folha de S.Paulo). The July 13th decision suspending Flávio's visits to Jair Bolsonaro for 90 days remains in effect. Flávio called minister Flávio Dino a "communist minister" and said he has no relationship with Michelle Bolsonaro (Folha de S.Paulo), while his campaign prepares to use the visit veto to isolate her (Folha de S.Paulo).

In Congress, the Senate approved the bomb agenda and entered recess without voting on priority government projects (Gazeta do Povo). Davi Alcolumbre held up promulgation at the government's request, awaiting a conversation with Lula (Folha de S.Paulo). Renan Santos criticized the approval, calling it "sabotage against the next government".

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The announced test came out backwards. The AFOS panel registered on July 15 that PoderData would be the test of Quaest's recovery in leeway. It came and returned the 2º turno to Empate técnico (45% × 43%). Recording this matters more than having gotten it right.
2. The disagreement is about Flávio, not Lula. The two firms agree on Lula's number and diverge six points on Flávio's, and agree that he falls within each series. The direction is robust; the level depends on who measures.
3. Tuesday, July 21, is the next test. Real Time Big Data and Instituto Indexa publish national polls on the same day, both [open source](registered with TSE), with fields that close only on July 19 and 20, after tariff confirmation. They will be the first to measure the electorate with the tariff already confirmed.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo - Genial/Quaest: Majority blames Flávio Bolsonaro for US tariff hike
• Folha de S.Paulo - Flávio's campaign acknowledges Lula's electoral gain from tariff hike and bets on reversing burden to PT
• Folha de S.Paulo - Moraes assumes STF presidency during recess and will decide on urgent matters
• Folha de S.Paulo - Flávio Bolsonaro calls Dino a 'communist minister' and says he has no relationship with Michelle
• Folha de S.Paulo - Flávio's campaign will use veto of visit to reinforce role as Bolsonaro's spokesperson and isolate Michelle
• Folha de S.Paulo - Government asks, and Alcolumbre holds back promulgation of bombshell agenda pending conversation with Lula

Secondary articles (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

• Poder360 - Lula has 40% and Flávio, 34%, in the first round, says PoderData/Aya
• CNN Brasil - PoderData/AYA: Lula has 40% of voting intentions in the first round; Flávio, 34%
• Poder360 - Lula has 45% against 43% of Flávio in the second round, says PoderData/Aya
• Poder360 - 42% approve and 51% disapprove Lula government, says PoderData/Aya
• Poder360 - Lula and Flávio each have 48% rejection, says PoderData/Aya
• Poder360 - USA confirms new 25% tariff on Brazilian products
• CNN Brasil - See Brazilian products that are left out of the 25% tax proposed by the USA
• ICL Notícias - Photo alongside Vorcaro's henchman opens new crisis in Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
• Folha de S.Paulo - Called 'tariflávio', Flávio Bolsonaro retweets Rubio and blames Lula for the tariff increase
• Gazeta do Povo - Senate defies Lula government and approves PEC with billionaire cost

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 16, 18:59 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).