July 17, 2026

1. Prediction market

presidential market moved on a day when no national poll was published, and the movement came entirely from one side. Flávio Bolsonaro rose to 27.05% (↑1.60pp, USD 7.44M), the largest movement on the panel, and narrowed the gap to Lula single-handedly, who remained at +33.45pp. Lula stayed flat at 60.50% (0.00pp, USD 7.41M). The gap shrank for the second consecutive session, but through opposite mechanism than the previous day: on July 16 it decreased because Lula moved toward PoderData, and now it decreased because Flávio rose, with Lula unchanged. Without new polling and without clear event behind it, Flávio's rise is market momentum, price adjusting conviction, not reaction to a fact. Total accumulated volume in the presidential market totals USD 113.6M.

The reading matters because it contradicts weeks of behavior. During much of June and July, Flávio's price remained stubbornly flat even amid poor polling. Today the market repriced it upward on its own, on a day without a trigger. Even so, the bet sustaining this price gave back a little at the margin: in sub-market for second place in the first round, Flávio fell to 82.00% (↓1.50pp, USD 180 thousand), the probability of being Lula's opponent in the runoff.

In the third way, Renan Santos fell to 7.85% (↓0.55pp, USD 8.15M), accumulating a drop from 10.15% to 7.85% in three sessions, and fell in third place in the first round to 68.00% (↓0.50pp, USD 140 thousand). This is the cleanest convergence on the running panel: the price continues descending toward the 6% that the latest poll gave him. Ronaldo Caiado remained stable at 1.25% (USD 4.95M) and rose to 14.50% in 3rd place (↑0.50pp). In the lower tier, the market reshuffled names without ballot backing: Michelle Bolsonaro rose to 2.15% (↑0.75pp, USD 9.06M) and Fernando Haddad fell to 0.45% (↓0.80pp, USD 6.24M), the largest relative drop on the panel. Romeu Zema fell to 0.55% (↓0.10pp, USD 4.40M).

In institutional sub-markets, the day was stable. PL continues at 86.00% in the Senate by seats (USD 250 thousand), against 11.80% for MDB (USD 10 thousand). impeachment of STF minister stayed practically flat at 3.40% (↑0.05pp, USD 84 thousand), giving back the previous day's rise and returning to the noise range. Scale caveat applies: this book sums tens of thousands of dollars, against USD 7.4M for the presidential, so a variation there requires far less money than the same in the main market.

In 2026 inflation market, the band of 5.00% to 5.49% stayed at 37.95% (USD 10 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% at 26.85%, totaling around 64.8% between the two. The Treasury's official projection, of 5.1%, remains within the modal range of real money.

2. What the institutes recorded

The day had no new national poll. The two most recent readings remain the Genial/Quaest of July 15 (BR-07181/2026), which gave first round Lula 40% × Flávio 28% and runoff 45% × 37%, and the PoderData/Aya of July 16 (BR-00059/2026), which returned the runoff to Empate técnico, 45% × 43%, with first round 40% × 34%. The background of voting, therefore, has not changed: Lula is identical in both readings, 40% in the first round and 45% in the runoff, and the entire disagreement, six points, is in Flávio, 28% against 34%.

This leaves the panel in a data pause until next Tuesday. Real Time Big Data and Instituto Indexa publish nationals on July 21, both registered with TSE, with fields that only close on July 19 and 20, after confirmation of the 25% United States tariff. They will be the first to measure the electorate with the tariff already in effect. A third national, from Gerp, is scheduled for July 22.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with scheduled publication between Jul 18 and Jul 24. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication - institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. No poll in the window has sample ≥ 3,000. Bold highlights the three nationals: Indexa and Real Time Big Data on Jul 21 and Gerp on Jul 22, with fields closing on July 19 and 20, after tariff confirmation. Status "registered ≠ published" - confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

With no new electoral developments on July 17, the agenda remained focused on the week's unfolding events. The tariff dispute with the United States remained at the center. The 25% tariff on Brazilian products was proposed on June 1, following a Section 301 investigation, and confirmed by USTR on July 15, with meat, coffee, fruits, nuts, minerals, and aircraft parts excluded from the list (Poder360, CNN Brasil). Genial/Quaest measured, in a survey from July 15, that the majority attributes responsibility to Flávio, not Lula, for the episode (Folha de S.Paulo), and his own campaign acknowledged electoral gains for Lula on the issue, betting on reversing the burden to the PT (Folha de S.Paulo). The Quaest field closure caveat remains: the field closed on July 13, before USTR's tariff confirmation.

In the Master case, the photo from 2022 released by ICL Notícias on July 15 continues to reverberate, in which Flávio appears alongside Luiz Phillipi Machado de Moraes Mourão, the "Sicário", identified by the PF as one of the operators of the surveillance network linked to Daniel Vorcaro. He was arrested in March 2026 in Operation Compliance Zero and died days later, in PF custody, following a suicide attempt. Flávio denies knowing him and questions the image's origin (ICL Notícias).

On the institutional front, the situation from the previous day remains: Alexandre de Moraes in the STF presidency during recess, deciding on urgent matters (Folha de S.Paulo), and the July 13 decision remains in force suspending Flávio's visits to Jair Bolsonaro for 90 days. Flávio called minister Flávio Dino a "communist minister" and said he has no relation to Michelle Bolsonaro (Folha de S.Paulo).

In Congress, the impasse over the bomb agenda approved by the Senate before recess remains open: Davi Alcolumbre held back promulgation at the government's request, awaiting a conversation with Lula (Folha de S.Paulo), with the expectation that the STF will block the text. Renan Santos maintained his criticism of the approval, which he called "sabotage for the next government" (Gazeta do Povo).

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The market moved without research moving. On a day with no new national poll, Flávio rose 1.60pp to 27.05% and narrowed the gap to Lula to +33.45pp, with Lula unchanged. With no trigger, it is momentum, and recording this as such, without inventing a cause, is the point.
2. The underlying backdrop of voting remains that of July 16. Quaest and PoderData remain the latest readings, agreeing on Lula (40% and 45%) and diverging six points on Flávio. Nothing in this picture changed today.
3. Tuesday, July 21, is the next real test. Real Time Big Data and Instituto Indexa publish national polls on the same day, and Gerp on July 22, all with fields that close only on July 19 and 20. These will be the first to measure the electorate with U.S. tariffs already confirmed.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct links to the news (anchor outlets):

• Folha de S.Paulo - Genial/Quaest: Majority blames Flávio Bolsonaro for US tariff hike
• Folha de S.Paulo - Flávio's campaign acknowledges Lula's electoral gain from tariff hike and bets on reversing the burden to PT
• Folha de S.Paulo - Moraes assumes STF presidency during recess and will decide on urgent matters
• Folha de S.Paulo - Flávio Bolsonaro says he has no relationship with Michelle and hasn't seen video with criticism
• Folha de S.Paulo - Government asks, and Alcolumbre holds back promulgation of explosive agenda awaiting conversation with Lula

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

• Poder360 - USA confirms new 25% tariff on Brazilian products
• CNN Brasil - See Brazilian products exempt from USA's proposed 25% tax
• ICL Notícias - Photo alongside Vorcaro's henchman opens new crisis in Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign
• Gazeta do Povo - Senate defies Lula government and approves PEC with billion-dollar cost

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 17, 18:01 BRT), TSE registration (official election polls).