July 18, 2026

1. Prediction market

The presidential market, whose total accumulated volume sums to USD 113.7M, spent the day reversing yesterday's movement. Flávio Bolsonaro fell 0.55pp to 26.50% (USD 7.5M), undoing the 1.60pp spike from yesterday, while Lula remained flat at 60.50% (USD 7.4M). With this, the gap between the two widened again, from +33.45pp to +34.00pp, due to the opponent's decline, not Lula's rise. Without new national polling and without ballot events, the back-and-forth in Flávio's price is market momentum, AFOS adjusting conviction, not reacting to fact.

In the third way, Renan Santos halted the correction he had been making and rose 0.45pp to 8.30% (USD 8.2M), after three sessions declining from 10.15% toward the 6% that PoderData measured. Michelle Bolsonaro fell back to 1.80% (USD 9.1M) and Ronaldo Caiado rose to 1.40% (USD 5.0M), adjustments for residual names without ballot backing.

In the sub-markets, the 2nd place in the 1º turno tracked the presidential: Flávio ceded to 81.50%, followed by Renan (10.7%). In 3rd place, Renan leads with 68.50% and Caiado advanced to 16.50%. In the Senate by seats, PL remains comfortable at 85.50% (USD 250 thousand), ahead of MDB (13.8%).

The impeachment of STF minister market rose slightly, to 3.60% (USD 84 thousand), and remains near the floor, in the noise range. A methodological note is warranted: the volume of this book is orders of magnitude below the USD 7.4M of the presidential, so the signal is weak. On 2026 inflation, the modal range of the market is 5.00% to 5.49%, at 39.60%, in line with the official Finance projection (5.1%), above the Central Bank target.

2. What the institutes registered

It was the second consecutive day without new national polling. The latest with national scope remain the Genial/Quaest of July 15 (n=2,004, reliability 5) and PoderData/Aya from July 16 (n=2,400). In both, Lula is identical: 40% in the 1º turno and 45% in the 2º turno. The entire disagreement is in Flávio, measured between 28% (Quaest) and 34% (PoderData) in the 1º turno, six points of difference that characterize house effect, not electorate movement.

At the state level, the Quaest of Espírito Santo gave Flávio at 42% against 36% for Lula, a local portrait that does not enter the national panel's scope. State-level polling remains outside the national dashboard by scope rule.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with publication scheduled between July 19 and July 25. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public record TSE via AFOS API. Registered status ≠ published; confirmation of effective disclosure requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. Press coverage

The political fact of the day was institutional. Alexandre de Moraes, presiding over the STF during recess, denied the request for Javier Milei to visit Jair Bolsonaro in house arrest. The visit was scheduled for July 25, when the Argentine president would come to Brazil for the PL convention and the launch of Flávio's candidacy. In a sole decision, Moraes blocked visits with political-electoral objectives until the end of the elections and suspended general visits for 30 days, allowing only lawyers, doctors, and physiotherapists. The decision came after Flávio released a handwritten letter from Bolsonaro to the Brazilian people, and the Bolsonarism classified the act as silencing.

In the opposition camp, Flávio Bolsonaro had day of scheduled testimony and new response to the tariff dispute with the US, while the PT intensified attacks on him on social media. In the Master case, the PF opened an international front: activated Interpol to track Daniel Vorcaro's assets in the US and Europe via the Silver Notice mechanism, in a development of Operation Compliance Zero.

On the government side, Folha de S.Paulo pointed to Lula as the week's winner among the three branches of government, but his agenda remains stalled: the Senate left for recess without voting on priorities, projects remained in limbo and four provisional measures lapsed in July due to lack of voting.

4. Day's Divergences

In summary

1. The market reversed yesterday's gains: Flávio fell to 26.50% (↓0.55pp) and the gap over Lula (60.50%) reopened to +34.00pp, without polling trigger, in a presidential market of US$ 113.7M.
2. Another day without national polling (next ones on July 21 and 22), and the day's fact was Moraes denying Milei's visit to Bolsonaro, with PF still activating Interpol after Vorcaro's assets.
3. Renan remains the largest divergence on the panel: 8.30% in the market against 6% in the best poll and 3% in Quaest, without new polling to arbitrate.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Correio Braziliense - Moraes denies request for Milei to visit Bolsonaro at home
• Poder360 - Moraes denies request for Milei's visit to Bolsonaro
• InfoMoney - PF wants to put Vorcaro on Interpol list to track movements abroad
• VEJA - PT intensifies bombardment of Flávio Bolsonaro on social media
• Folha de S.Paulo - Three powers: Lula is the week's winner; Nunes Marques, the loser

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

• Band - Flávio's Testimony and Response to Trump Mark Candidates' Day
• CNN Brasil - Four Government MPs Lost Validity in July; Find Out Which
• VEJA - Stalled Agenda in Congress Puts Government Lula's Priority Projects in Limbo
• TVT News - Polls Aggregator: What Do This Week's Polls Say for 2026 Elections?
• Poder360 - Flávio Has 42% of Votes Against 36% of Lula in ES, Says Quaest

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 18, 14:35 BRT), TSE Registration (official electoral polls).