July 22, 2026

1. Prediction market

74 days from the 1º turno, the presidential market closed the day practically where it started, with accumulated total volume summing about USD 114.6M (Polymarket via proxy AFOS, fetched July 22 14:42 BRT). Lula remains the isolated favorite at 60.50% (USD 7.5M), unchanged. Flávio Bolsonaro retreated to 24.95% (USD 7.5M), and the gap between the two widened to +35.55pp, still below the cycle peak of +39.5pp registered on July 3. The movement came from the opponent's side, not from a step by the favorite.

The highlight of the day is in the third way. Renan Santos rose to 10.70% (USD 8.3M), the second highest price in the presidential book, consolidating double digits. Ronaldo Caiado retreated to 1.50% (USD 5.0M) and Romeu Zema to 0.50% (USD 4.5M), returning part of the previous day's gain. Michelle Bolsonaro, who is not a declared pre-candidate, marks 1.25% (USD 9.1M), and Fernando Haddad, focused on São Paulo's government, 0.40% (USD 6.3M) (Polymarket).

In sub-markets, Flávio maintains a comfortable lead for second place in the 1º turno at 78.00%, and Renan leads third place at 63.50%, with Caiado at 16.50%. The impeachment of STF minister before 2027 market continues near the floor at 2.95% (USD 83 thousand), a volume base orders of magnitude below the presidential, which recommends treating any variation there as noise, not signal.

In Senate by seats, PL leads with 75.00%, ahead of MDB (12.45%). In 2026 inflation market, the modal price range is 5.00% to 5.49%, with 37.6%, followed by the range of 4.50% to 4.99%, with 26.55%, a distribution center that continues above the target ceiling.

2. What the polling institutes recorded

The day's data was the Gerp/AESP, third national poll of the week, published this Wednesday (Gazeta do Povo, Exame). In the 1º turno with stimulus, Lula and Flávio tie with 38% each; Zema, Renan Santos, and Caiado appear with 3% each. In the direct 2º turno, Flávio is numerically ahead at 46% to 45%, empate técnico within the 2.19 point margin (Poder360). In other scenarios, Lula wins: 44% to 41% against Caiado, 44% to 38% against Zema, and 45% to 35% against Renan. Field from July 15 to 17, n=2,000, TSE registration BR-05026/2026.

Context matters. Gerp is a smaller-scale institute that has maintained, since the rounds of June 24 and July 8, a reading pattern more favorable to Flávio than the consensus of larger-track houses. An analysis from JOTA read the empate técnico as a signal of structural fragility, not advantage, for the PL candidate. On approval, the week's reading remains divided by method: a CartaCapital summary registered improvement in Lula's indices, while Real Time on July 21 maintained disapproval ahead at 50% to 46%. Gerp gave rejection of 47% to Lula and 46% to Flávio.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered with TSE with scheduled publication between July 23 and July 29. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication confirmed - institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS API. 🔥 highlights samples ≥ 3,000. Status "registered ≠ published" - confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citation of numbers. The next top-tier national is Datafolha on July 24.

3. Press coverage

On the government side, Folha de S.Paulo reported on July 22 that Lula expanded his campaign core following internal friction within the team, an organizational move just over two months before the 1º turno.

In the Master case, the investigation advanced on both fronts. According to Valdo Cruz's blog on g1, the PF should conclude the inquiry into the fraud in mid-August, with indictment of Daniel Vorcaro. Malu Gaspar's blog on O Globo reported that Vorcaro had allegedly spoken with the operator identified by the PF about measures against a manager who reported the bank. On the other side, the PF summoned Jaques Wagner, the government's former leader in Congress, to testify about payments linked to the case (Terra), a sign that the inquiry also involves figures from the government's circle.

In the opposition and third way, Flávio mentioned Smartmatic, an electoral technology company, in a speech that again raised the issue of ballot security (context explainer). Renan Santos, officially nominated as a candidate by Missão on July 21, had his government plan detailed by O Globo. And the Real Time poll from July 21 continued to reverberate as the reading that placed Caiado ahead of Lula in a direct 2º turno (coverage), a scenario that today's Gerp did not confirm.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Gerp closed the day with a 1º turno tie (Lula 38, Flávio 38) and Flávio ahead in the 2º turno outright (46 to 45), but it is the institute that most diverges in Flávio's favor in the segment, and the market did not buy the number.
2. The Renan case was resolved against the market in terms of polling: 3% in Gerp, as in Indexa, versus Real Time's isolated 9%. The price, however, rose to 10.70%, widening the divergence instead of closing it.
3. The next major reading is Datafolha, scheduled for July 24, which may consolidate or refute both Gerp's tie and the loose signals from the third way.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to the news (anchor outlets):

• Gazeta do Povo - Gerp releases new presidential survey; see the numbers
• Exame - Gerp Survey: Flávio Bolsonaro has 46% and Lula, 45%, in the runoff
• g1 (Valdo Cruz) - PF will conclude Master fraud investigation in mid-August, with indictment of Vorcaro
• O Globo (Malu Gaspar) - Vorcaro spoke with operator about urgent measure against manager who denounced Master
• O Globo - Renan Santos government plan

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

• Poder360 - Flávio and Lula are in technical tie in second round, says poll
• JOTA - Poll shows technical tie with Lula and hidden fragility of Flávio
• Folha de S.Paulo - Lula expands campaign core after tensions within team
• Terra - Federal Police summons Jaques Wagner, former Lula government leader, to testify on Master case
• CartaCapital - The improvement in Lula's approval ratings, according to new poll
• Exame/coverage - 50% rejection of Lula makes Caiado surpass president in second round
• Explainer - Smartmatic: what is the company cited in Flávio Bolsonaro's speech

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 22 14:42 BRT), TSE record (official election polls).